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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A compact midlevel low, accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow, will advance eastward across the Montana/Canadian border on Day 3/Wednesday. This will promote strong surface winds across portions of the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- in the vicinity of a related cold front. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible over portions of Montana and Wyoming; however, a limited overlap of the strong winds/low RH and/or marginal fuels limit confidence in the potential for critical conditions -- precluding probabilities at this time. As the midlevel low continues eastward on Day 4/Thursday, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. Similarly, marginal fuels and a limited overlap with low RH should mitigate the overall fire-weather risk. Late in the extended forecast period (around Days 7-8/Sunday -Monday), medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement, depicting an upper low moving ashore over the Pacific Northwest. Associated ascent and midlevel moisture overspreading the Cascades and areas east may favor a dry thunderstorm risk. With that said, Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld for now, given lingering uncertainties on overall timing/evolution of the upper low and fuel receptiveness. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A compact midlevel low, accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow, will advance eastward across the Montana/Canadian border on Day 3/Wednesday. This will promote strong surface winds across portions of the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- in the vicinity of a related cold front. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible over portions of Montana and Wyoming; however, a limited overlap of the strong winds/low RH and/or marginal fuels limit confidence in the potential for critical conditions -- precluding probabilities at this time. As the midlevel low continues eastward on Day 4/Thursday, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. Similarly, marginal fuels and a limited overlap with low RH should mitigate the overall fire-weather risk. Late in the extended forecast period (around Days 7-8/Sunday -Monday), medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement, depicting an upper low moving ashore over the Pacific Northwest. Associated ascent and midlevel moisture overspreading the Cascades and areas east may favor a dry thunderstorm risk. With that said, Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld for now, given lingering uncertainties on overall timing/evolution of the upper low and fuel receptiveness. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A compact midlevel low, accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow, will advance eastward across the Montana/Canadian border on Day 3/Wednesday. This will promote strong surface winds across portions of the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- in the vicinity of a related cold front. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible over portions of Montana and Wyoming; however, a limited overlap of the strong winds/low RH and/or marginal fuels limit confidence in the potential for critical conditions -- precluding probabilities at this time. As the midlevel low continues eastward on Day 4/Thursday, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. Similarly, marginal fuels and a limited overlap with low RH should mitigate the overall fire-weather risk. Late in the extended forecast period (around Days 7-8/Sunday -Monday), medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement, depicting an upper low moving ashore over the Pacific Northwest. Associated ascent and midlevel moisture overspreading the Cascades and areas east may favor a dry thunderstorm risk. With that said, Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld for now, given lingering uncertainties on overall timing/evolution of the upper low and fuel receptiveness. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A compact midlevel low, accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow, will advance eastward across the Montana/Canadian border on Day 3/Wednesday. This will promote strong surface winds across portions of the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- in the vicinity of a related cold front. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible over portions of Montana and Wyoming; however, a limited overlap of the strong winds/low RH and/or marginal fuels limit confidence in the potential for critical conditions -- precluding probabilities at this time. As the midlevel low continues eastward on Day 4/Thursday, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. Similarly, marginal fuels and a limited overlap with low RH should mitigate the overall fire-weather risk. Late in the extended forecast period (around Days 7-8/Sunday -Monday), medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement, depicting an upper low moving ashore over the Pacific Northwest. Associated ascent and midlevel moisture overspreading the Cascades and areas east may favor a dry thunderstorm risk. With that said, Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld for now, given lingering uncertainties on overall timing/evolution of the upper low and fuel receptiveness. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A compact midlevel low, accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow, will advance eastward across the Montana/Canadian border on Day 3/Wednesday. This will promote strong surface winds across portions of the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- in the vicinity of a related cold front. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible over portions of Montana and Wyoming; however, a limited overlap of the strong winds/low RH and/or marginal fuels limit confidence in the potential for critical conditions -- precluding probabilities at this time. As the midlevel low continues eastward on Day 4/Thursday, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. Similarly, marginal fuels and a limited overlap with low RH should mitigate the overall fire-weather risk. Late in the extended forecast period (around Days 7-8/Sunday -Monday), medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement, depicting an upper low moving ashore over the Pacific Northwest. Associated ascent and midlevel moisture overspreading the Cascades and areas east may favor a dry thunderstorm risk. With that said, Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld for now, given lingering uncertainties on overall timing/evolution of the upper low and fuel receptiveness. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A compact midlevel low, accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow, will advance eastward across the Montana/Canadian border on Day 3/Wednesday. This will promote strong surface winds across portions of the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- in the vicinity of a related cold front. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible over portions of Montana and Wyoming; however, a limited overlap of the strong winds/low RH and/or marginal fuels limit confidence in the potential for critical conditions -- precluding probabilities at this time. As the midlevel low continues eastward on Day 4/Thursday, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. Similarly, marginal fuels and a limited overlap with low RH should mitigate the overall fire-weather risk. Late in the extended forecast period (around Days 7-8/Sunday -Monday), medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement, depicting an upper low moving ashore over the Pacific Northwest. Associated ascent and midlevel moisture overspreading the Cascades and areas east may favor a dry thunderstorm risk. With that said, Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld for now, given lingering uncertainties on overall timing/evolution of the upper low and fuel receptiveness. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A compact midlevel low, accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow, will advance eastward across the Montana/Canadian border on Day 3/Wednesday. This will promote strong surface winds across portions of the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- in the vicinity of a related cold front. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible over portions of Montana and Wyoming; however, a limited overlap of the strong winds/low RH and/or marginal fuels limit confidence in the potential for critical conditions -- precluding probabilities at this time. As the midlevel low continues eastward on Day 4/Thursday, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. Similarly, marginal fuels and a limited overlap with low RH should mitigate the overall fire-weather risk. Late in the extended forecast period (around Days 7-8/Sunday -Monday), medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement, depicting an upper low moving ashore over the Pacific Northwest. Associated ascent and midlevel moisture overspreading the Cascades and areas east may favor a dry thunderstorm risk. With that said, Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld for now, given lingering uncertainties on overall timing/evolution of the upper low and fuel receptiveness. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A compact midlevel low, accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow, will advance eastward across the Montana/Canadian border on Day 3/Wednesday. This will promote strong surface winds across portions of the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- in the vicinity of a related cold front. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible over portions of Montana and Wyoming; however, a limited overlap of the strong winds/low RH and/or marginal fuels limit confidence in the potential for critical conditions -- precluding probabilities at this time. As the midlevel low continues eastward on Day 4/Thursday, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. Similarly, marginal fuels and a limited overlap with low RH should mitigate the overall fire-weather risk. Late in the extended forecast period (around Days 7-8/Sunday -Monday), medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement, depicting an upper low moving ashore over the Pacific Northwest. Associated ascent and midlevel moisture overspreading the Cascades and areas east may favor a dry thunderstorm risk. With that said, Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld for now, given lingering uncertainties on overall timing/evolution of the upper low and fuel receptiveness. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE RUT TO 5 SE EEN TO 80 ESE PSM. ..THORNTON..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-262240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 262240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL DUKES ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NHC005-262240- Read more

WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE RUT TO 5 SE EEN TO 80 ESE PSM. ..THORNTON..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-262240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 262240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL DUKES ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NHC005-262240- Read more

WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE RUT TO 5 SE EEN TO 80 ESE PSM. ..THORNTON..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-262240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 262240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL DUKES ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NHC005-262240- Read more

WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE RUT TO 5 SE EEN TO 80 ESE PSM. ..THORNTON..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-262240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 262240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL DUKES ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NHC005-262240- Read more

WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE RUT TO 5 SE EEN TO 80 ESE PSM. ..THORNTON..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-262240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 262240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL DUKES ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NHC005-262240- Read more

WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE RUT TO 5 SE EEN TO 80 ESE PSM. ..THORNTON..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-262240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 262240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL DUKES ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NHC005-262240- Read more

WW 648 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NH NY RI VT CW 261705Z - 262300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Southern New Hampshire Southeast New York Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify as they generally move south-southeastward through the afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of hail and locally damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Keene NH to 25 miles south of Groton CT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0649 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 649 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ABR...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-011-021-023-035-041-051-065-067-073-093-095-097-111- 121-141-145-149-151-153-155-159-167-171-173-262240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON BIG STONE CASS CHIPPEWA CROW WING DOUGLAS GRANT KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON OTTER TAIL POPE SHERBURNE STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE NDC077-262240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RICHLAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0650 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE TOR TO 35 SW 2WX. ..THORNTON..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...CYS...LBF...UNR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-262240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER NEC013-015-017-031-045-089-103-149-161-165-262240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE BOYD BROWN CHERRY DAWES HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-019-023-033-047-053-055-071-081-093-095-102-103-121-123- 262240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0649 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 649 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000 ..WENDT..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ABR...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-011-021-023-035-041-051-065-067-073-093-095-097-111- 121-141-145-149-151-153-155-159-167-171-173-262140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON BIG STONE CASS CHIPPEWA CROW WING DOUGLAS GRANT KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON OTTER TAIL POPE SHERBURNE STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE NDC077-262140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RICHLAND Read more

MD 1999 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN SD AND NORTHERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1999 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Areas affected...northeast WY into western/southern SD and northern NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261937Z - 262100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and large to very large hail remain possible. A watch will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms over eastern WY have slowly increased in intensity the past hour or so as this activity shifts east into somewhat better instability. Additional deepening of cumulus has been noted in visible satellite imagery along the outflow reinforced frontal draped near the SD/NE border. Pockets of stronger heating and cooling aloft has allowed MLCAPE to increase to around 1000 J/kg. Somewhat stronger instability is noted with eastward extent along the surface boundary across north-central NE, and towering cumulus have recently developed in this area. While convective evolution remains a bit uncertain, modified 18z RAOB from UNR, along with forecast soundings across the region, continue to indicate a risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD area soon. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... LAT...LON 42800541 43550556 44640559 45210517 45350360 44380184 43569915 43279800 42769795 42319845 42089931 41910121 41930313 42520481 42800541 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 20:40:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 21:35:07 GMT