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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region. At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts will focus convective development and some severe risk -- particularly from afternoon onward. ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time, and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks. ...Northern Plains... Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies, resulting shear will support storm organization -- including supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary risks. As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. A lower risk for a few strong/severe storms will extend southwest across the lower Missouri Valley into northern Kansas. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing into the northern High Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to shift into the eastern Dakotas by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across southern MN. Gradual deamplification is expected during the latter half of the period as the short wave ejects across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, primary synoptic boundary is forecast to extend across the eastern U.P. of MI-central WI-central IA-southern NE at the start of the period. Westerly flow will deepen across the Great Lakes region by midday, and this will encourage the surface front to shift downstream as west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens across southern WI/Lower MI. Long-lived, mature MCS is currently propagating across northern/central WI, in line with latest HREF guidance. This complex of storms will track across northern Lake MI into Lower MI later this morning as it turns southeast. Convective outflow will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave/surface front. Latest thinking is modest boundary-layer heating will extend across northern IL into extreme southern WI, east into the northern OH Valley region. This will be the northern extent of a very unstable airmass which should support afternoon thunderstorm development/intensification. It's not entirely clear where the early-day outflow will establish itself, and uncertainty necessitates some caution trying to focus higher severe probabilities. Even so, there may be a need to expand SLGT risk a bit south if the boundary advances further than currently expected. Severe gusts and hail are the primary risks with convection today. Farther southwest across the lower MO Valley into northern Kansas, very strong surface heating will negate CINH and convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings rise through the mid 90s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms may focus along the synoptic front, though this activity will evolve within a vertical wind profile that is fairly weak and supports mostly pulse to multicell updrafts. In the absence of any short-wave trough, surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development, and the lack of a strong LLJ may also be a limiting factor in upscale growth. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 Read more

WW 0654 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-119-141-143-149-167-270640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-270640- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC015-017-027-031-051-089-103-107-149-270640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN CEDAR Read more

WW 0653 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E VOK TO 35 NW OSH TO 35 E CWA TO 40 SE RHI TO 20 ENE RHI TO 35 NNE RHI TO 35 ESE IWD. ..BENTLEY..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 653 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-009-015-029-037-039-041-047-061-067-071-075-077-078-083- 087-115-117-135-137-139-270640- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET DOOR FLORENCE FOND DU LAC FOREST GREEN LAKE KEWAUNEE LANGLADE MANITOWOC MARINETTE MARQUETTE MENOMINEE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE SHAWANO SHEBOYGAN WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO LMZ521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-643-669-270640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands and on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 2009 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2009 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653... Valid 270411Z - 270515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues in and near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, and this threat should persist for at least a few more hours. DISCUSSION...A mature MCS with a history of strong, damaging gusts continues to progress eastward over central WI. Given nocturnal cooling, temperatures are dropping into the 75-80F range, suggesting that MLCINH should be on the increase ahead of the MCS. While this may dampen wind damage potential to some degree, at least some threat for damaging gusts should continue for at least a few more hours given 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding the line. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX... LAT...LON 46178996 46448979 46458927 46348845 46108776 45648732 44978720 44408728 43998750 43908797 43938859 44018925 44098958 44318974 44658968 44928962 45538968 46178996 Read more

Rice harvest was underway in Southeast Texas, and lots of hay was being bailed. Some counties reported good rainfall while others did not receive any, but rain was in the forecast for the district. Livestock were in fair condition. The lack of rain and drier conditions allowed hay fields to be harvested. Grasshoppers were showing up in several locations. Row crops were on schedule but were starting to show stress due to lack of moisture. Corn harvest was underway, and yields were good. Cotton bolls were starting to open, and the sorghum harvest was wrapping up. Producers were making a third cutting of hay. Despite the heat, pastures and ponds were looking good. Rangeland and pasture ratings varied from poor to excellent while soil moisture levels were very short to adequate. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 27, 2024

The public was asked by the Lauderdale County Emergency Management Agency director to avoid outdoor burning until the area receives some rain. He noted the extremely dangerous conditions in northwest Alabama with the extreme heat and low humidity. Times Daily (Florence, Ala.), Aug 27, 2024

A Wellsburg farmer has been irrigating almost nonstop to keep his strawberries, tomatoes and green beans alive and producing. He still lost 80% of his green beans, and the potatoes were “about 50 to 60% less than anticipated,” and smaller, too. Overall crop production was less than normal and the produce was smaller. The sweet corn will not survive the dry summer, and the pumpkins were losing the battle, as well. The soil was a fine powder like baby powder and rose in a cloud when stirred up while tilling. No field preparation was being done because it was so dry. Employees spent their time moving pipes to irrigate crops. The drought and heat will likely put a damper on the corn maze and pumpkin patch. The corn ought to be about three to four feet tall, but was barely a foot in height. The landscape was not as scenic as usual, either. Visitors came out to photograph flowers, but the farmer described the scene at “bleak” and “dismal.” Several fields that were seeded with winter crops had not germinated due to the lack of water. The ground was bare. A beekeeper has been providing sugar water for his bees to compensate for the decreased nectar, due to drought. He estimated that he has already used nearly 600 pounds of sugar and does not expect to harvest much honey in the fall. The beekeeper has also noticed more yellow jackets and deer this year. Deer usually graze new clover, but were gravitating toward other vegetation. The farmer’s garden is protected by an electric fence, which did not shock the deer because the ground was too dry. Overall, farm produce was about 50% of normal. The Wheeling Intelligencer (W.V.), Aug 27, 2024

Extremely dry and sweltering conditions persisted across the Rolling Plains. A wide-spread rain would help reduce the wildfire risk, which remains exceptionally high with dried pasture grasses in the entire district. Most producers are having to supplement cattle with hay. Grasshoppers continued to plague everyone and were eating anything green. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 27, 2024 The Rolling Plains experienced an unseasonable cold front that brought some relief, but conditions were still dry. Irrigated cotton and corn looked favorable, but dryland crops were struggling. Livestock water sources and pasture quality were deteriorating, and producers in many areas were starting to supplement their herds. Grasshoppers remained a problem. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 13, 2024