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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:35:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 09:29:26 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270833 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Satellite imagery depicts Gilma has started to weaken, and become less organized over the last several hours. Infrared images indicate that the previous well-defined eye has filled, and cloud tops have started to warm. The system is starting to encounter some westerly wind shear as well, as evident by a sharper sheared edge on the western side of the cyclone. A SSMIS microwave pass around 03Z depicts the eyewall has started to become less pronounced on the southern side, and may even be open. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have decreased from the previous advisory and range between 85-95 kt. Given the satellite degradation and a blend of the intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt for this advisory. Gilma is moving westward at 275/9 kt. A subtropical ridge should continue to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward, with a gradual increase in forward speed over the next several days. On this track, Gilma should enter the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow. The track guidance continues to be fairly well clustered, with the main difference being the forward speed. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and lies near the simple consensus aids. While Gilma has fought off the marginal environment and maintained hurricane status longer than anticipated, it seems the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable. Westerly wind shear is starting to increase, as is evident in the satellite depiction, and is forecast to increase throughout the next several days. The system is also starting to move into a drier and more stable airmass with sub 26C sea-surface temperatures. This will result in steady weakening throughout the forecast period. Model simulated satellite suggest that Gilma will struggle to produce deep convection around 72 h and is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at that time. Global models also indicate that Gilma should dissipate into an open trough by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and lies near the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.5N 139.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.6N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 20.7N 152.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z 21.8N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 270833 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 145W 34 1 6( 7) 42(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 145W 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 270833 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...GILMA SLIGHTLY WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 139.2W ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 139.2 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast over the next few days. Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...GILMA SLIGHTLY WEAKER... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Gilma was located near 18.5, -139.2 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 270832 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 139.2W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 139.2W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 138.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 140.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 152.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.8N 156.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 139.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:32:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 09:35:26 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270831 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Hector appears a little less organized tonight. Infrared satellite images indicate that the convective pattern has become ragged with a lack of banding features. Accordingly, the objective and subjective Dvorak classifications have decreased some, but blending all of the estimates still yields an intensity estimate of 45 kt. The storm is ingesting some dry air and appears to be feeling some influences of cool upwelled waters from Hurricane Gilma that passed through the area a few days ago. It is starting to look increasingly likely that Hector is missing its window to strengthen any further. Weakening will likely commence in a day or so when the shear begins to increase, and Hector is now forecast to become a remnant low by day 3. This forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance. Hector is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt. A turn to the west with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. No big changes were made to the track forecast, and this one lies fairly close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.1N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 17.5N 129.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 17.8N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 17.9N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 18.0N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 18.0N 138.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 18.0N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270831 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270831 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...HECTOR CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 127.5W ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 127.5 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster westward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible on Tuesday, but gradual weakening is forecast after that. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HECTOR CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Hector was located near 17.1, -127.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270830 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.5N 129.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 131.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 133.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 135.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 138.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 140.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 127.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

WW 0654 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N OFK TO 10 E YKN TO 25 W FSD TO 35 WSW BKX AND 10 NNE SUX TO 30 SE FSD TO 20 E BKX. ..BENTLEY..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-119-141-143-149-167-270840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-270840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0654 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N OFK TO 10 E YKN TO 25 W FSD TO 35 WSW BKX AND 10 NNE SUX TO 30 SE FSD TO 20 E BKX. ..BENTLEY..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-119-141-143-149-167-270840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-270840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0654 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N OFK TO 10 E YKN TO 25 W FSD TO 35 WSW BKX AND 10 NNE SUX TO 30 SE FSD TO 20 E BKX. ..BENTLEY..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-119-141-143-149-167-270840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-270840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 654 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 270355Z - 271100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 654 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northern Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1055 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Mainly elevated thunderstorms should pose some threat for severe hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter as they move generally east-northeastward through the overnight hours. If these thunderstorms can consolidate into a cluster, then a threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph may be realized. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of Valentine NE to 25 miles north northeast of Spencer IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 650...WW 651...WW 653... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS...AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms will be possible over portions of Virginia and the Carolinas, and across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest into the central Plains on Thursday. ...Synopsis... As an upper trough moves out of the Northeast and into the northern Atlantic, a surface cold front is forecast to backdoor southward across southern Virginia and the Carolinas with time. Meanwhile, an upstream mid/upper-level trough will move across the Canadian Prairie and Plains states through the period. Accompanying this trough, a surface cold front will shift eastward/southeastward with time, and should arc from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward and then west-southwestward to the southeastern Colorado area by Friday morning. ...Southern Virginia to northern South Carolina... As a trailing cold front shifts southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and eventually into the Carolinas, daytime heating will support moderate destabilization across parts of southern Virginia and into the Carolinas. While a gradual increase in large-scale upper ridging will be underway in the wake of the departing upper trough, isolated storm development will be possible during the afternoon, near the sagging front and over the higher terrain. Though flow aloft will remain weak, weak veering with height may combine with ample mixed-layer CAPE to support a few stronger storms, and accompanying, marginal severe risk locally. Risk should diminish by early evening, as storms diurnally decrease. ...Minnesota to northern Kansas... Moderate afternoon destabilization is forecast ahead of the advancing cold front across the Upper Midwest, aided by ample daytime heating. While the strongest flow aloft should remain to the cool side of the boundary, ample shear atop the frontal zone should support isolated stronger storms. As such, attendant risks for large hail and damaging gusts will accompany the most vigorous updrafts, into the evening hours. A few stronger storms may develop southwestward along the front into the central Plains, where weaker instability/shear are expected. Still, marginal hail and a locally strong gust or two cannot be ruled out into the early evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS...AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms will be possible over portions of Virginia and the Carolinas, and across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest into the central Plains on Thursday. ...Synopsis... As an upper trough moves out of the Northeast and into the northern Atlantic, a surface cold front is forecast to backdoor southward across southern Virginia and the Carolinas with time. Meanwhile, an upstream mid/upper-level trough will move across the Canadian Prairie and Plains states through the period. Accompanying this trough, a surface cold front will shift eastward/southeastward with time, and should arc from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward and then west-southwestward to the southeastern Colorado area by Friday morning. ...Southern Virginia to northern South Carolina... As a trailing cold front shifts southward across the Mid-Atlantic region and eventually into the Carolinas, daytime heating will support moderate destabilization across parts of southern Virginia and into the Carolinas. While a gradual increase in large-scale upper ridging will be underway in the wake of the departing upper trough, isolated storm development will be possible during the afternoon, near the sagging front and over the higher terrain. Though flow aloft will remain weak, weak veering with height may combine with ample mixed-layer CAPE to support a few stronger storms, and accompanying, marginal severe risk locally. Risk should diminish by early evening, as storms diurnally decrease. ...Minnesota to northern Kansas... Moderate afternoon destabilization is forecast ahead of the advancing cold front across the Upper Midwest, aided by ample daytime heating. While the strongest flow aloft should remain to the cool side of the boundary, ample shear atop the frontal zone should support isolated stronger storms. As such, attendant risks for large hail and damaging gusts will accompany the most vigorous updrafts, into the evening hours. A few stronger storms may develop southwestward along the front into the central Plains, where weaker instability/shear are expected. Still, marginal hail and a locally strong gust or two cannot be ruled out into the early evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/27/2024 Read more