Aggregator

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of southern West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Upper Midwest into the central Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain near/north of the International border closer to the compacted closed low over the Canadian Prairies/western Ontario, but modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will extend over portions of the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains through the period. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints, with a corridor of 70s F dewpoints across southern MN to the mid-MS Valley. Strong heating and low-level warm advection ahead of the front should allow for a corridor of strong surface-based instability across parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley into eastern portions of the central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along the front during the day and into the evening hours. Vertical shear will remain somewhat modest, and decrease with southward extent. Forecast soundings suggest supercells may be possible, especially across parts of MN/WI/IA where effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will be present amid vertically veering low-level wind profiles. Linear forcing along the front and marginal shear may favor more rapidly developing line segments however. Regardless, a risk for all severe hazards may accompany this activity. With southward extent into the central Plains, forecast soundings show weaker deep-layer southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles/steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the southeast-advancing front suggest strong wind gust potential. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Weak deep-layer flow is expected across the region in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. However, a very moist and hot airmass is forecast, support moderate to strong destabilization during the day. As a cold front sags south across the region, isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible. This risk should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 27 19:00:19 UTC 2024.

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 35 NW BEH. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-097-111-272040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE LAKE MCHENRY LMZ740-777-272040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 35 NW BEH. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-097-111-272040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE LAKE MCHENRY LMZ740-777-272040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 35 NW BEH. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-097-111-272040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE LAKE MCHENRY LMZ740-777-272040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 35 NW BEH. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-097-111-272040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE LAKE MCHENRY LMZ740-777-272040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 35 NW BEH. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-097-111-272040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE LAKE MCHENRY LMZ740-777-272040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 655 SEVERE TSTM IL WI LM 271705Z - 272100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 655 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Southeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 1205 PM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms will continue to move across southeast Wisconsin early this afternoon, with additional development possible into northern Illinois. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Milwaukee WI to 40 miles east of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0656 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE MKE TO 50 NW MKG TO 40 NNW MKG TO 35 S MBL TO 35 SSE MBL TO 35 SE MBL TO 30 E MBL TO 20 SSW TVC TO 20 NW TVC. ..JEWELL..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC005-015-025-035-037-039-045-055-057-067-073-077-079-081-107- 113-117-121-123-127-133-139-143-159-165-271940- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN BARRY CALHOUN CLARE CLINTON CRAWFORD EATON GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT IONIA ISABELLA KALAMAZOO KALKASKA KENT MECOSTA MISSAUKEE MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA OSCEOLA OTTAWA ROSCOMMON VAN BUREN WEXFORD LMZ844-845-846-847-848-870-872-874-876-878-271940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI Read more