Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z In the wake of a midlevel low advancing eastward across the northern Plains, an expansive mid/upper-level ridge will temporarily build over the West through around Day 5/Saturday. While weak surface winds should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns during that time, boundary-layer warming and some drying of fuels is expected, most notably across the Northwest. Thereafter, a midlevel trough/low will approach the Pacific Northwest, with weak midlevel height falls beginning to impinge on coastal OR/WA as early as Day 5/Saturday. Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong at that time, though gradually increasing midlevel moisture/instability may support an isolated thunderstorm risk along/west of the Cascades (though confidence in this scenario is low). On Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, the midlevel trough/low will continue east-northeastward across the Northwest, with more substantial midlevel height falls overspreading the region. Increasing midlevel moisture atop a relatively warm/dry boundary layer will support mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, given the ample large-scale ascent. Confidence in thunderstorm development is currently highest across portions of OR on Day 7/Monday -- when the strongest ascent should phase with favorable PW/instability. Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld owing to uncertainties regarding fuel receptiveness and overall timing of thunderstorm development, though probabilities may eventually be needed as those details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z In the wake of a midlevel low advancing eastward across the northern Plains, an expansive mid/upper-level ridge will temporarily build over the West through around Day 5/Saturday. While weak surface winds should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns during that time, boundary-layer warming and some drying of fuels is expected, most notably across the Northwest. Thereafter, a midlevel trough/low will approach the Pacific Northwest, with weak midlevel height falls beginning to impinge on coastal OR/WA as early as Day 5/Saturday. Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong at that time, though gradually increasing midlevel moisture/instability may support an isolated thunderstorm risk along/west of the Cascades (though confidence in this scenario is low). On Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, the midlevel trough/low will continue east-northeastward across the Northwest, with more substantial midlevel height falls overspreading the region. Increasing midlevel moisture atop a relatively warm/dry boundary layer will support mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, given the ample large-scale ascent. Confidence in thunderstorm development is currently highest across portions of OR on Day 7/Monday -- when the strongest ascent should phase with favorable PW/instability. Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld owing to uncertainties regarding fuel receptiveness and overall timing of thunderstorm development, though probabilities may eventually be needed as those details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z In the wake of a midlevel low advancing eastward across the northern Plains, an expansive mid/upper-level ridge will temporarily build over the West through around Day 5/Saturday. While weak surface winds should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns during that time, boundary-layer warming and some drying of fuels is expected, most notably across the Northwest. Thereafter, a midlevel trough/low will approach the Pacific Northwest, with weak midlevel height falls beginning to impinge on coastal OR/WA as early as Day 5/Saturday. Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong at that time, though gradually increasing midlevel moisture/instability may support an isolated thunderstorm risk along/west of the Cascades (though confidence in this scenario is low). On Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, the midlevel trough/low will continue east-northeastward across the Northwest, with more substantial midlevel height falls overspreading the region. Increasing midlevel moisture atop a relatively warm/dry boundary layer will support mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, given the ample large-scale ascent. Confidence in thunderstorm development is currently highest across portions of OR on Day 7/Monday -- when the strongest ascent should phase with favorable PW/instability. Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld owing to uncertainties regarding fuel receptiveness and overall timing of thunderstorm development, though probabilities may eventually be needed as those details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z In the wake of a midlevel low advancing eastward across the northern Plains, an expansive mid/upper-level ridge will temporarily build over the West through around Day 5/Saturday. While weak surface winds should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns during that time, boundary-layer warming and some drying of fuels is expected, most notably across the Northwest. Thereafter, a midlevel trough/low will approach the Pacific Northwest, with weak midlevel height falls beginning to impinge on coastal OR/WA as early as Day 5/Saturday. Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong at that time, though gradually increasing midlevel moisture/instability may support an isolated thunderstorm risk along/west of the Cascades (though confidence in this scenario is low). On Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, the midlevel trough/low will continue east-northeastward across the Northwest, with more substantial midlevel height falls overspreading the region. Increasing midlevel moisture atop a relatively warm/dry boundary layer will support mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, given the ample large-scale ascent. Confidence in thunderstorm development is currently highest across portions of OR on Day 7/Monday -- when the strongest ascent should phase with favorable PW/instability. Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld owing to uncertainties regarding fuel receptiveness and overall timing of thunderstorm development, though probabilities may eventually be needed as those details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z In the wake of a midlevel low advancing eastward across the northern Plains, an expansive mid/upper-level ridge will temporarily build over the West through around Day 5/Saturday. While weak surface winds should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns during that time, boundary-layer warming and some drying of fuels is expected, most notably across the Northwest. Thereafter, a midlevel trough/low will approach the Pacific Northwest, with weak midlevel height falls beginning to impinge on coastal OR/WA as early as Day 5/Saturday. Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong at that time, though gradually increasing midlevel moisture/instability may support an isolated thunderstorm risk along/west of the Cascades (though confidence in this scenario is low). On Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, the midlevel trough/low will continue east-northeastward across the Northwest, with more substantial midlevel height falls overspreading the region. Increasing midlevel moisture atop a relatively warm/dry boundary layer will support mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, given the ample large-scale ascent. Confidence in thunderstorm development is currently highest across portions of OR on Day 7/Monday -- when the strongest ascent should phase with favorable PW/instability. Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld owing to uncertainties regarding fuel receptiveness and overall timing of thunderstorm development, though probabilities may eventually be needed as those details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z In the wake of a midlevel low advancing eastward across the northern Plains, an expansive mid/upper-level ridge will temporarily build over the West through around Day 5/Saturday. While weak surface winds should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns during that time, boundary-layer warming and some drying of fuels is expected, most notably across the Northwest. Thereafter, a midlevel trough/low will approach the Pacific Northwest, with weak midlevel height falls beginning to impinge on coastal OR/WA as early as Day 5/Saturday. Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong at that time, though gradually increasing midlevel moisture/instability may support an isolated thunderstorm risk along/west of the Cascades (though confidence in this scenario is low). On Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, the midlevel trough/low will continue east-northeastward across the Northwest, with more substantial midlevel height falls overspreading the region. Increasing midlevel moisture atop a relatively warm/dry boundary layer will support mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, given the ample large-scale ascent. Confidence in thunderstorm development is currently highest across portions of OR on Day 7/Monday -- when the strongest ascent should phase with favorable PW/instability. Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld owing to uncertainties regarding fuel receptiveness and overall timing of thunderstorm development, though probabilities may eventually be needed as those details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z In the wake of a midlevel low advancing eastward across the northern Plains, an expansive mid/upper-level ridge will temporarily build over the West through around Day 5/Saturday. While weak surface winds should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns during that time, boundary-layer warming and some drying of fuels is expected, most notably across the Northwest. Thereafter, a midlevel trough/low will approach the Pacific Northwest, with weak midlevel height falls beginning to impinge on coastal OR/WA as early as Day 5/Saturday. Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong at that time, though gradually increasing midlevel moisture/instability may support an isolated thunderstorm risk along/west of the Cascades (though confidence in this scenario is low). On Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, the midlevel trough/low will continue east-northeastward across the Northwest, with more substantial midlevel height falls overspreading the region. Increasing midlevel moisture atop a relatively warm/dry boundary layer will support mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, given the ample large-scale ascent. Confidence in thunderstorm development is currently highest across portions of OR on Day 7/Monday -- when the strongest ascent should phase with favorable PW/instability. Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld owing to uncertainties regarding fuel receptiveness and overall timing of thunderstorm development, though probabilities may eventually be needed as those details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z In the wake of a midlevel low advancing eastward across the northern Plains, an expansive mid/upper-level ridge will temporarily build over the West through around Day 5/Saturday. While weak surface winds should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns during that time, boundary-layer warming and some drying of fuels is expected, most notably across the Northwest. Thereafter, a midlevel trough/low will approach the Pacific Northwest, with weak midlevel height falls beginning to impinge on coastal OR/WA as early as Day 5/Saturday. Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong at that time, though gradually increasing midlevel moisture/instability may support an isolated thunderstorm risk along/west of the Cascades (though confidence in this scenario is low). On Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, the midlevel trough/low will continue east-northeastward across the Northwest, with more substantial midlevel height falls overspreading the region. Increasing midlevel moisture atop a relatively warm/dry boundary layer will support mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, given the ample large-scale ascent. Confidence in thunderstorm development is currently highest across portions of OR on Day 7/Monday -- when the strongest ascent should phase with favorable PW/instability. Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld owing to uncertainties regarding fuel receptiveness and overall timing of thunderstorm development, though probabilities may eventually be needed as those details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z In the wake of a midlevel low advancing eastward across the northern Plains, an expansive mid/upper-level ridge will temporarily build over the West through around Day 5/Saturday. While weak surface winds should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns during that time, boundary-layer warming and some drying of fuels is expected, most notably across the Northwest. Thereafter, a midlevel trough/low will approach the Pacific Northwest, with weak midlevel height falls beginning to impinge on coastal OR/WA as early as Day 5/Saturday. Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong at that time, though gradually increasing midlevel moisture/instability may support an isolated thunderstorm risk along/west of the Cascades (though confidence in this scenario is low). On Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, the midlevel trough/low will continue east-northeastward across the Northwest, with more substantial midlevel height falls overspreading the region. Increasing midlevel moisture atop a relatively warm/dry boundary layer will support mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, given the ample large-scale ascent. Confidence in thunderstorm development is currently highest across portions of OR on Day 7/Monday -- when the strongest ascent should phase with favorable PW/instability. Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld owing to uncertainties regarding fuel receptiveness and overall timing of thunderstorm development, though probabilities may eventually be needed as those details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z In the wake of a midlevel low advancing eastward across the northern Plains, an expansive mid/upper-level ridge will temporarily build over the West through around Day 5/Saturday. While weak surface winds should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns during that time, boundary-layer warming and some drying of fuels is expected, most notably across the Northwest. Thereafter, a midlevel trough/low will approach the Pacific Northwest, with weak midlevel height falls beginning to impinge on coastal OR/WA as early as Day 5/Saturday. Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong at that time, though gradually increasing midlevel moisture/instability may support an isolated thunderstorm risk along/west of the Cascades (though confidence in this scenario is low). On Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, the midlevel trough/low will continue east-northeastward across the Northwest, with more substantial midlevel height falls overspreading the region. Increasing midlevel moisture atop a relatively warm/dry boundary layer will support mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, given the ample large-scale ascent. Confidence in thunderstorm development is currently highest across portions of OR on Day 7/Monday -- when the strongest ascent should phase with favorable PW/instability. Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld owing to uncertainties regarding fuel receptiveness and overall timing of thunderstorm development, though probabilities may eventually be needed as those details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0656 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE AZO TO 25 WNW JXN TO 20 WNW OSC. ..LYONS..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC069-075-272240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE IOSCO JACKSON LHZ363-272240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0656 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE AZO TO 25 WNW JXN TO 20 WNW OSC. ..LYONS..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC069-075-272240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE IOSCO JACKSON LHZ363-272240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0656 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE AZO TO 25 WNW JXN TO 20 WNW OSC. ..LYONS..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC069-075-272240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE IOSCO JACKSON LHZ363-272240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 656 SEVERE TSTM MI LM 271745Z - 280000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 656 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple of storms are expected to spread east-southeastward this afternoon through early evening across western/interior Lower Michigan, with damaging winds and some hail possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Manistee MI to 30 miles west of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 655... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0657 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S AZO TO 25 SSW FNT TO 30 S BAX TO 10 ESE BAX TO 15 NNE BAX TO 25 SE APN. ..LYONS..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC063-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-151-161-163-272240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-272240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI Read more

WW 0657 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S AZO TO 25 SSW FNT TO 30 S BAX TO 10 ESE BAX TO 15 NNE BAX TO 25 SE APN. ..LYONS..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC063-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-151-161-163-272240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-272240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI Read more

WW 0657 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S AZO TO 25 SSW FNT TO 30 S BAX TO 10 ESE BAX TO 15 NNE BAX TO 25 SE APN. ..LYONS..08/27/24 ATTN...WFO...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC063-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-151-161-163-272240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-272240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI Read more

WW 657 SEVERE TSTM MI LH 271955Z - 280100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 657 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Lower Michigan Lake Huron * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Semi-organized cluster of storms will continue east-southeastward across east-central and southeast Lower Michigan through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Bad Axe MI to 10 miles southwest of Ann Arbor MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 656... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2015 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656... FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Areas affected...central into eastern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 656... Valid 271946Z - 272145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 656 continues. SUMMARY...Storms over central Lower Michigan continue to pose a strong to severe wind threat, with gusty wind potential spreading east over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Storms with extensive outflow have pushed across Lake MI and into western MI, producing locally severe gusts. Although current radar presentation shows rather broken cell structures, fast-moving outflow continues to push east. Given the strongly unstable air mass developing ahead of the outflow, some severe potential will likely spread eastward through the afternoon, with strong to locally severe gusts. Shear remains weak but new development is possible along the outflow with some degree of forward propagation expected. Also aided downdraft potential are precipitable water values in excess of 1.75" and steepening low-level lapse rates into the peak heating hours. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42038330 41878468 41918505 42358551 42778555 43158535 43688502 44058476 44198454 44228323 44108293 43508237 42768252 42288291 42038330 Read more

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hector has shown a bit of a convective comeback today with the well-defined center tucking in along the edge of the growing deep convection. Both TAFB and SAB's subjective classifications of Hector's intensity have gone up to a T3.0/45 kt, and the SATCON indicates 42 kt, which are the basis for boosting the maximum winds back to 45 kt for this advisory. However, it is not anticipated that Hector will continue to intensify. The combination of moderate westerly vertical shear, lukewarm 26C SSTs, and a fairly dry low-level atmosphere should cause a gradual weakening of the system. The simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and EC suggests that deep convection will cease in about two days, so a remnant low transition should occur starting in 48 hr. The global models also suggest that Hector will open up into a trough in around three days, so dissipation is shown at 72 hr. All of the statistical and numerical guidance is in agreement with this intensity forecast. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest today at around 10 kt. As the system becomes increasingly shallow, it should be steered by the low-level trades toward the west at the same forward speed. The global and regional models are in close agreement with this scenario and little change was made to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 17.8N 129.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 18.1N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.3N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 18.4N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 18.4N 138.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0600Z 18.3N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea