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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Upper ridge is gradually breaking down over the Ohio Valley, as heights are suppressed along the southern fringe of stronger flow, in association with a progressive short-wave trough. Additionally, a weak disturbance is currently located over northern MO which should advance into Indiana by 18z. Aforementioned Great Lakes short-wave trough will encourage a surface boundary to sag south into the OH Valley by mid day. This boundary will likely serve as the primary focus for robust convective development later today. Early this morning, leading edge of a larger complex of convection has advanced into northwest OH. This activity will propagate downstream into western PA later this morning, and some intensification may occur along the leading edge of the MCS carcass as boundary-layer heating aids destabilization. If so, this activity would progress southeast toward MD/DE/southern NJ with an attendant risk for primarily wind. Upstream, a secondary corridor of robust convection should evolve ahead of the northern MO disturbance that tracks into IN by midday. Strongest corridor of instability will extend across southern IL into central OH ahead of this feature/surface front. While deep-layer flow will remain seasonally weak, damaging winds along with some hail risk will be noted with this robust convection. Convective temperatures will be breached early, and surface-based updrafts may begin to organize by 17-18z. ...Dakotas... Strong short-wave trough will migrate across the northern Rockies into eastern MT by 29/12z. 60-120m, 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature across eastern MT/western ND during the latter half of the period. This strong short wave will result in a pronounced surface front that will surge into the western Dakotas by 18z, then into the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. Very strong surface heating is forecast across the High Plains of SD extending into extreme southern ND. This will result in a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy by early afternoon, but capping will hold until 22-23z as temperatures warm through the mid 90s. NAM forecast sounding for PIR at 23z exhibits negligible inhibition with ample 0-6km shear for supercells and very steep lapse rates. Models also suggest LLJ will strengthen ahead of the front, and this will support organized, longer-lived updrafts. Scattered supercells should evolve ahead of the front, and will pose a risk for very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can not be ruled out with early evening supercells. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Upper ridge is gradually breaking down over the Ohio Valley, as heights are suppressed along the southern fringe of stronger flow, in association with a progressive short-wave trough. Additionally, a weak disturbance is currently located over northern MO which should advance into Indiana by 18z. Aforementioned Great Lakes short-wave trough will encourage a surface boundary to sag south into the OH Valley by mid day. This boundary will likely serve as the primary focus for robust convective development later today. Early this morning, leading edge of a larger complex of convection has advanced into northwest OH. This activity will propagate downstream into western PA later this morning, and some intensification may occur along the leading edge of the MCS carcass as boundary-layer heating aids destabilization. If so, this activity would progress southeast toward MD/DE/southern NJ with an attendant risk for primarily wind. Upstream, a secondary corridor of robust convection should evolve ahead of the northern MO disturbance that tracks into IN by midday. Strongest corridor of instability will extend across southern IL into central OH ahead of this feature/surface front. While deep-layer flow will remain seasonally weak, damaging winds along with some hail risk will be noted with this robust convection. Convective temperatures will be breached early, and surface-based updrafts may begin to organize by 17-18z. ...Dakotas... Strong short-wave trough will migrate across the northern Rockies into eastern MT by 29/12z. 60-120m, 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature across eastern MT/western ND during the latter half of the period. This strong short wave will result in a pronounced surface front that will surge into the western Dakotas by 18z, then into the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. Very strong surface heating is forecast across the High Plains of SD extending into extreme southern ND. This will result in a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy by early afternoon, but capping will hold until 22-23z as temperatures warm through the mid 90s. NAM forecast sounding for PIR at 23z exhibits negligible inhibition with ample 0-6km shear for supercells and very steep lapse rates. Models also suggest LLJ will strengthen ahead of the front, and this will support organized, longer-lived updrafts. Scattered supercells should evolve ahead of the front, and will pose a risk for very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can not be ruled out with early evening supercells. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Upper ridge is gradually breaking down over the Ohio Valley, as heights are suppressed along the southern fringe of stronger flow, in association with a progressive short-wave trough. Additionally, a weak disturbance is currently located over northern MO which should advance into Indiana by 18z. Aforementioned Great Lakes short-wave trough will encourage a surface boundary to sag south into the OH Valley by mid day. This boundary will likely serve as the primary focus for robust convective development later today. Early this morning, leading edge of a larger complex of convection has advanced into northwest OH. This activity will propagate downstream into western PA later this morning, and some intensification may occur along the leading edge of the MCS carcass as boundary-layer heating aids destabilization. If so, this activity would progress southeast toward MD/DE/southern NJ with an attendant risk for primarily wind. Upstream, a secondary corridor of robust convection should evolve ahead of the northern MO disturbance that tracks into IN by midday. Strongest corridor of instability will extend across southern IL into central OH ahead of this feature/surface front. While deep-layer flow will remain seasonally weak, damaging winds along with some hail risk will be noted with this robust convection. Convective temperatures will be breached early, and surface-based updrafts may begin to organize by 17-18z. ...Dakotas... Strong short-wave trough will migrate across the northern Rockies into eastern MT by 29/12z. 60-120m, 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature across eastern MT/western ND during the latter half of the period. This strong short wave will result in a pronounced surface front that will surge into the western Dakotas by 18z, then into the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. Very strong surface heating is forecast across the High Plains of SD extending into extreme southern ND. This will result in a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy by early afternoon, but capping will hold until 22-23z as temperatures warm through the mid 90s. NAM forecast sounding for PIR at 23z exhibits negligible inhibition with ample 0-6km shear for supercells and very steep lapse rates. Models also suggest LLJ will strengthen ahead of the front, and this will support organized, longer-lived updrafts. Scattered supercells should evolve ahead of the front, and will pose a risk for very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can not be ruled out with early evening supercells. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Upper ridge is gradually breaking down over the Ohio Valley, as heights are suppressed along the southern fringe of stronger flow, in association with a progressive short-wave trough. Additionally, a weak disturbance is currently located over northern MO which should advance into Indiana by 18z. Aforementioned Great Lakes short-wave trough will encourage a surface boundary to sag south into the OH Valley by mid day. This boundary will likely serve as the primary focus for robust convective development later today. Early this morning, leading edge of a larger complex of convection has advanced into northwest OH. This activity will propagate downstream into western PA later this morning, and some intensification may occur along the leading edge of the MCS carcass as boundary-layer heating aids destabilization. If so, this activity would progress southeast toward MD/DE/southern NJ with an attendant risk for primarily wind. Upstream, a secondary corridor of robust convection should evolve ahead of the northern MO disturbance that tracks into IN by midday. Strongest corridor of instability will extend across southern IL into central OH ahead of this feature/surface front. While deep-layer flow will remain seasonally weak, damaging winds along with some hail risk will be noted with this robust convection. Convective temperatures will be breached early, and surface-based updrafts may begin to organize by 17-18z. ...Dakotas... Strong short-wave trough will migrate across the northern Rockies into eastern MT by 29/12z. 60-120m, 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature across eastern MT/western ND during the latter half of the period. This strong short wave will result in a pronounced surface front that will surge into the western Dakotas by 18z, then into the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. Very strong surface heating is forecast across the High Plains of SD extending into extreme southern ND. This will result in a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy by early afternoon, but capping will hold until 22-23z as temperatures warm through the mid 90s. NAM forecast sounding for PIR at 23z exhibits negligible inhibition with ample 0-6km shear for supercells and very steep lapse rates. Models also suggest LLJ will strengthen ahead of the front, and this will support organized, longer-lived updrafts. Scattered supercells should evolve ahead of the front, and will pose a risk for very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can not be ruled out with early evening supercells. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Upper ridge is gradually breaking down over the Ohio Valley, as heights are suppressed along the southern fringe of stronger flow, in association with a progressive short-wave trough. Additionally, a weak disturbance is currently located over northern MO which should advance into Indiana by 18z. Aforementioned Great Lakes short-wave trough will encourage a surface boundary to sag south into the OH Valley by mid day. This boundary will likely serve as the primary focus for robust convective development later today. Early this morning, leading edge of a larger complex of convection has advanced into northwest OH. This activity will propagate downstream into western PA later this morning, and some intensification may occur along the leading edge of the MCS carcass as boundary-layer heating aids destabilization. If so, this activity would progress southeast toward MD/DE/southern NJ with an attendant risk for primarily wind. Upstream, a secondary corridor of robust convection should evolve ahead of the northern MO disturbance that tracks into IN by midday. Strongest corridor of instability will extend across southern IL into central OH ahead of this feature/surface front. While deep-layer flow will remain seasonally weak, damaging winds along with some hail risk will be noted with this robust convection. Convective temperatures will be breached early, and surface-based updrafts may begin to organize by 17-18z. ...Dakotas... Strong short-wave trough will migrate across the northern Rockies into eastern MT by 29/12z. 60-120m, 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature across eastern MT/western ND during the latter half of the period. This strong short wave will result in a pronounced surface front that will surge into the western Dakotas by 18z, then into the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. Very strong surface heating is forecast across the High Plains of SD extending into extreme southern ND. This will result in a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy by early afternoon, but capping will hold until 22-23z as temperatures warm through the mid 90s. NAM forecast sounding for PIR at 23z exhibits negligible inhibition with ample 0-6km shear for supercells and very steep lapse rates. Models also suggest LLJ will strengthen ahead of the front, and this will support organized, longer-lived updrafts. Scattered supercells should evolve ahead of the front, and will pose a risk for very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can not be ruled out with early evening supercells. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Drought has elevated the fire danger across Mississippi, leading to higher fire activity. A massive wildfire was burning in Webster County after fire fighters responded to a 25-acre wildfire the previous day. The Kilmichael Volunteer Fire Department in Montgomery County has responded to eight fires in two days, compared to an average of one or two per month. Ackerman and Coffeeville have issued burn bans within their city limits to reduce the likelihood of additional fires. WTVA (Tupelo, Miss.), Aug 26, 2024 Mississippi typically has a dry late summer period and has had an uptick in fire activity. Since Friday, August 16, there have been nearly 68 wildfires. The Mississippi Forestry Commission has begun receiving requests for burn bans across the state. Adams County was under a burn ban. WJTV TV 12 (Jackson, Miss.), Aug 22, 2024

MD 2023 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN IL INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST IN
Mesoscale Discussion 2023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Areas affected...Parts of northern IL into extreme northwest IN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658... Valid 280239Z - 280415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and damaging wind may persist through late evening. DISCUSSION...Convection has largely become outflow dominant this evening across northern IL, within an environment that is strongly unstable (with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg), but with only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Favorable thermodynamic profiles (as noted on the 00Z ILX/DVN soundings) will continue to support briefly intense updrafts with isolated hail potential. A large area of convective outflow has moved into western IL from northeast MO/southeast IA, with smaller outflows being generated by redeveloping storms within the primary instability axis. Locally damaging winds may accompany this outflow-dominant convection through late evening, before increasingly extensive convective overturning results in a weakening trend overnight. ..Dean.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 41079060 41458884 41528784 41558737 41418713 41118715 40818752 40538853 40428999 40439026 40509056 41079060 Read more

WW 0658 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 658 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MMO TO 5 E VPZ. WW 658 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023 ..DEAN..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 658 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC053-063-075-091-099-105-197-280400- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-280400- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0658 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 658 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MMO TO 5 E VPZ. WW 658 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023 ..DEAN..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 658 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC053-063-075-091-099-105-197-280400- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-280400- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 658 SEVERE TSTM IL IN WI LM 272210Z - 280400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 658 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Far Southeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to grow in coverage and intensity this afternoon and evening as they move east-southeastward. Large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter will be a threat with any supercells, but severe/damaging winds generally around 60-70 mph may also occur if thunderstorms can grow into a small cluster. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west of Racine WI to 55 miles southeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 656...WW 657... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0660 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 660 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VPZ TO 20 SE SBN TO 15 E AZO. ..DEAN..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 660 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-039-049-069-085-087-099-103-113-131-149-169-181-183- 280440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS ELKHART FULTON HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE PULASKI STARKE WABASH WHITE WHITLEY MIC149-280440- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. JOSEPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0660 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 660 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VPZ TO 20 SE SBN TO 15 E AZO. ..DEAN..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 660 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-039-049-069-085-087-099-103-113-131-149-169-181-183- 280440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS ELKHART FULTON HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE PULASKI STARKE WABASH WHITE WHITLEY MIC149-280440- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. JOSEPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 660 SEVERE TSTM IN MI LM 280015Z - 280600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 660 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Far Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 815 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread southeastward across far southwest Lower Michigan and northern Indiana this evening while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph. Isolated large hail may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles east southeast of South Bend IN to 40 miles southwest of South Bend IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 658...WW 659... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0660 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 660 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 660 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-039-049-069-085-087-091-099-103-113-131-141-149-169-181- 183-280340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS ELKHART FULTON HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE WABASH WHITE WHITLEY MIC021-027-149-280340- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN CASS ST. JOSEPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2022 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658...660... FOR NORTHERN IN...SOUTHWEST MI
Mesoscale Discussion 2022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0829 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Areas affected...Northern IN...southwest MI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658...660... Valid 280129Z - 280300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658, 660 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat is expected to spread southeastward with a small storm cluster. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster that formed from initial supercell development near/north of Chicago has accelerated southeastward and become better organized this evening, with rather strong velocities (60-70 kt at 3-5 km ARL) noted from KLOT/KIWX radars. While MLCINH increases with southeastward extent, strong buoyancy and the current organized nature of this cluster will continue to support a threat of severe/damaging gusts across a larger part of northern IN and southwest MI into late evening. Isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest embedded updrafts within this cluster. ..Dean.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT... LAT...LON 42068664 42008612 41908554 41708516 41418500 41128513 40928551 40938599 41088662 41338727 41638722 42068664 Read more

WW 0658 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 658 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MMO TO 15 W BEH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023 ..DEAN..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 658 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC053-063-075-091-093-099-105-197-280340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE LIVINGSTON WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-280340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 02:34:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 03:34:57 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 280233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN