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Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hector this evening continues to produce a large area of deep convection, though this activity is struggling to become better organized and wrap around the circulation center, possibly due to continued 15-20 kt westerly shear helping to entrain very dry mid-level air near its center. Subjective and objective intensity estimates remain largely unchanged this evening, and the initial intensity will remain 45 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm continues to move off to the west-northwest at 285/10 kt. The mid-level ridge currently steering Hector is expected to weaken somewhat as a mid- to upper-level weakness forms north of Hector. However, the cyclone is also likely to become more vertically shallow and thus steered more by a low-level ridge that will remain in place to the north. Thus, the track forecast shows Hector bending back more westward over the next several days. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. The overall environment near Hector currently is not all that favorable for much additional strengthening. The current moderate shear is not forecast to let up much as Hector also moves over the cold wake left behind by Gilma, which itself has dramatically weakened as it encountered less favorable conditions. Thus, weakening continues to be forecast with Hector, in good agreement with the intensity guidance. Both the GFS and ECMWF still show the cyclone losing its remaining organized convection after 48 hours, and the NHC forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low before it crosses into the Central Pacific basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 18.2N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.4N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 18.6N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 18.6N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 18.5N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1200Z 18.4N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 280233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 ...HECTOR FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 131.0W ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 131.0 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with a turn more westward is anticipated over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days and Hector is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...HECTOR FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 PM HST Tue Aug 27 the center of Hector was located near 18.2, -131.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.4N 132.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 134.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.5N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.4N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 131.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

MD 2021 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 659... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN OHIO INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2021 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northern Ohio into extreme northwestern Pennsylvania and extreme southwestern New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 659... Valid 280039Z - 280215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 659 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe threat will persist for a few more hours in and immediately surrounding Severe Thunderstorm Watch 659. Damaging gusts remain the primary concern. DISCUSSION...A pronounced cold pool, originating from a mature persistent elongated convective system, has surged southeastward across Lake Erie over the past couple of hours. At least a few severe gusts have been observed, and some convective rejuvenation has occurred along the cold pool leading edge. Buoyancy decreases/MLCINH increases with eastward and southward extent ahead of the ongoing storms/cold pool. However, the fast pace of the cold pool suggests that continued cellular regeneration and accompanying damaging wind gust potential will continue for at least a couple more hours. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40858328 41748140 42268059 42427980 42427919 42177908 41847921 41387970 41068055 40838138 40638224 40858328 Read more

MD 2020 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658... FOR NORTHEAST IL INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST IN/SOUTHWEST MI
Mesoscale Discussion 2020 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Areas affected...Northeast IL into extreme northwest IN/southwest MI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658... Valid 272324Z - 280100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat will spread southeastward through early evening. DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed across far northeast IL, with reports of severe wind gusts and hail up to golf ball size thus far. Large to extreme instability will continue to support vigorous updrafts early this evening. Deep-layer shear becomes increasingly modest with southward extent, but will remain locally enhanced near a lake-enhanced surface boundary draped northwest to southeast across the Chicagoland vicinity. The ongoing supercell may propagate southeastward near this boundary, with a continued threat of large hail and severe/damaging gusts. There is some potential for additional development near the trailing outflow, with increasing cumulus noted in Kane County. Depending on the number and proximity of storms that develop early this evening, some upscale growth into a southeastward-moving cluster will be possible with time. Downstream watch issuance is possible if a severe threat begins to approach northwest IN/southwest MI. ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT... LAT...LON 42488833 42458779 42398760 42088668 41808633 41518637 41258654 41188716 41288767 41548817 41828869 42388855 42488833 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE. Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail/wind. Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE. Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail/wind. Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE. Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail/wind. Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE. Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail/wind. Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE. Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail/wind. Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE. Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail/wind. Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE. Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail/wind. Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE. Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail/wind. Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE. Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail/wind. Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated large hail remain possible across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is flattening across the Great Lakes this evening in response to a progressive short-wave trough advancing east across the upper MS Valley. This feature will deamplify as it shifts into the central Great Lakes by 28/12z. Westerly flow is gradually deepening across this region and low-level convergence is not particularly focused, though a synoptic front does currently extend from northern Lower MI/south-central WI arcing into southern NE. Multiple thunderstorm complexes have spread across WI/MI with the leading edge of one MCS now advancing southeast of Lake Erie. This activity should struggle as it propagates into eastern OH/western PA as buoyancy is not particularly strong across this portion of the OH Valley. Upstream along the trailing synoptic front, a reservoir of extreme instability has yet to be overturned from northern IL into northern MO. Robust convection is tracking southeast along a lake breeze near the Chicago metro. These storms will propagate into northern IN over the next several hours with an attendant risk for hail/wind. Farther southwest, weaker steering currents are contributing to slow-moving clusters along the front across northern MO into northeast KS. This activity will be more deviant in storm motion due to weak flow, driven largely by convective outflow and the presence of extreme instability. Hail/wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2024 Read more

WW 0659 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 659 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CLE TO 35 N YNG TO 30 NW ERI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021 ..SQUITIERI..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 659 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC007-055-280140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA GEAUGA PAC039-049-280140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD ERIE LEZ149-169-280140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY Read more

WW 0659 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 659 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CLE TO 35 N YNG TO 30 NW ERI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021 ..SQUITIERI..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 659 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC007-055-280140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA GEAUGA PAC039-049-280140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD ERIE LEZ149-169-280140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY Read more

WW 0659 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 659 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CLE TO 35 N YNG TO 30 NW ERI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021 ..SQUITIERI..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 659 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC007-055-280140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA GEAUGA PAC039-049-280140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD ERIE LEZ149-169-280140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY Read more

WW 0659 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 659 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CLE TO 35 N YNG TO 30 NW ERI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021 ..SQUITIERI..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 659 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC007-055-280140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA GEAUGA PAC039-049-280140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD ERIE LEZ149-169-280140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY Read more