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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKES HUDSON AND ERIE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms will be posible from Lakes Huron and Erie southwesteward into the Midwest Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday, though the more vigorous portion of the trough is forecast to eject northeastward across Ontario into the Hudson Bay region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across the Great Lakes region, southeastward across the Midwest, and southward across the Plains. By the end of the period, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the Midwest... Afternoon destabilization across the Midwest ahead of the advancing cold front will support development of scattered thunderstorms. While stronger flow aloft will remain to the cool side of the front, moderate low- to mid-level westerlies extending south into the Midwest states should allow a few stronger storms to evolve, including a few small clusters/line segments. The strongest storms will pose some risk for marginal hail and wind gusts capable of mainly tree damage, into the evening hours before a nocturnal convective decrease commences. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKES HUDSON AND ERIE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms will be posible from Lakes Huron and Erie southwesteward into the Midwest Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday, though the more vigorous portion of the trough is forecast to eject northeastward across Ontario into the Hudson Bay region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across the Great Lakes region, southeastward across the Midwest, and southward across the Plains. By the end of the period, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the Midwest... Afternoon destabilization across the Midwest ahead of the advancing cold front will support development of scattered thunderstorms. While stronger flow aloft will remain to the cool side of the front, moderate low- to mid-level westerlies extending south into the Midwest states should allow a few stronger storms to evolve, including a few small clusters/line segments. The strongest storms will pose some risk for marginal hail and wind gusts capable of mainly tree damage, into the evening hours before a nocturnal convective decrease commences. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKES HUDSON AND ERIE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms will be posible from Lakes Huron and Erie southwesteward into the Midwest Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday, though the more vigorous portion of the trough is forecast to eject northeastward across Ontario into the Hudson Bay region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across the Great Lakes region, southeastward across the Midwest, and southward across the Plains. By the end of the period, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the Midwest... Afternoon destabilization across the Midwest ahead of the advancing cold front will support development of scattered thunderstorms. While stronger flow aloft will remain to the cool side of the front, moderate low- to mid-level westerlies extending south into the Midwest states should allow a few stronger storms to evolve, including a few small clusters/line segments. The strongest storms will pose some risk for marginal hail and wind gusts capable of mainly tree damage, into the evening hours before a nocturnal convective decrease commences. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKES HUDSON AND ERIE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms will be posible from Lakes Huron and Erie southwesteward into the Midwest Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday, though the more vigorous portion of the trough is forecast to eject northeastward across Ontario into the Hudson Bay region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across the Great Lakes region, southeastward across the Midwest, and southward across the Plains. By the end of the period, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the Midwest... Afternoon destabilization across the Midwest ahead of the advancing cold front will support development of scattered thunderstorms. While stronger flow aloft will remain to the cool side of the front, moderate low- to mid-level westerlies extending south into the Midwest states should allow a few stronger storms to evolve, including a few small clusters/line segments. The strongest storms will pose some risk for marginal hail and wind gusts capable of mainly tree damage, into the evening hours before a nocturnal convective decrease commences. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKES HUDSON AND ERIE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms will be posible from Lakes Huron and Erie southwesteward into the Midwest Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday, though the more vigorous portion of the trough is forecast to eject northeastward across Ontario into the Hudson Bay region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across the Great Lakes region, southeastward across the Midwest, and southward across the Plains. By the end of the period, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the Midwest... Afternoon destabilization across the Midwest ahead of the advancing cold front will support development of scattered thunderstorms. While stronger flow aloft will remain to the cool side of the front, moderate low- to mid-level westerlies extending south into the Midwest states should allow a few stronger storms to evolve, including a few small clusters/line segments. The strongest storms will pose some risk for marginal hail and wind gusts capable of mainly tree damage, into the evening hours before a nocturnal convective decrease commences. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Interior West as a mid-level trough impinges on the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Thursday). As a result, surface high pressure and associated quiescent fire weather conditions will settle over the northern Rockies into the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. 15-25 percent RH will be common across much of the Intermountain West by afternoon peak heating, with stronger gusts most likely in localized, terrain-favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Interior West as a mid-level trough impinges on the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Thursday). As a result, surface high pressure and associated quiescent fire weather conditions will settle over the northern Rockies into the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. 15-25 percent RH will be common across much of the Intermountain West by afternoon peak heating, with stronger gusts most likely in localized, terrain-favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Interior West as a mid-level trough impinges on the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Thursday). As a result, surface high pressure and associated quiescent fire weather conditions will settle over the northern Rockies into the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. 15-25 percent RH will be common across much of the Intermountain West by afternoon peak heating, with stronger gusts most likely in localized, terrain-favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Interior West as a mid-level trough impinges on the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Thursday). As a result, surface high pressure and associated quiescent fire weather conditions will settle over the northern Rockies into the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. 15-25 percent RH will be common across much of the Intermountain West by afternoon peak heating, with stronger gusts most likely in localized, terrain-favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Interior West as a mid-level trough impinges on the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Thursday). As a result, surface high pressure and associated quiescent fire weather conditions will settle over the northern Rockies into the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. 15-25 percent RH will be common across much of the Intermountain West by afternoon peak heating, with stronger gusts most likely in localized, terrain-favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the northern Rockies today, encouraging strong surface lee troughing over the northern Plains. By afternoon, isallobaric and downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions over portions of the central and northern Rockies. 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, from portions of southeast Montana into central Wyoming. Elevated highlights have been maintained in central Wyoming, where dry and windy conditions will best overlap with fuels that are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the northern Rockies today, encouraging strong surface lee troughing over the northern Plains. By afternoon, isallobaric and downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions over portions of the central and northern Rockies. 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, from portions of southeast Montana into central Wyoming. Elevated highlights have been maintained in central Wyoming, where dry and windy conditions will best overlap with fuels that are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the northern Rockies today, encouraging strong surface lee troughing over the northern Plains. By afternoon, isallobaric and downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions over portions of the central and northern Rockies. 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, from portions of southeast Montana into central Wyoming. Elevated highlights have been maintained in central Wyoming, where dry and windy conditions will best overlap with fuels that are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the northern Rockies today, encouraging strong surface lee troughing over the northern Plains. By afternoon, isallobaric and downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions over portions of the central and northern Rockies. 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, from portions of southeast Montana into central Wyoming. Elevated highlights have been maintained in central Wyoming, where dry and windy conditions will best overlap with fuels that are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the northern Rockies today, encouraging strong surface lee troughing over the northern Plains. By afternoon, isallobaric and downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions over portions of the central and northern Rockies. 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, from portions of southeast Montana into central Wyoming. Elevated highlights have been maintained in central Wyoming, where dry and windy conditions will best overlap with fuels that are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North Carolina vicinity. ...Synopsis... While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance into/across the north-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the Plains through the period. ...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains... As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas. While both instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range. This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/upscale organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the evening hours. Lesser risk with southwestward extent should gradually diminish after sunset. ...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity... As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast, a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rather weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters, along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage. Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North Carolina vicinity. ...Synopsis... While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance into/across the north-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the Plains through the period. ...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains... As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas. While both instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range. This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/upscale organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the evening hours. Lesser risk with southwestward extent should gradually diminish after sunset. ...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity... As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast, a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rather weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters, along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage. Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North Carolina vicinity. ...Synopsis... While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance into/across the north-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the Plains through the period. ...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains... As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas. While both instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range. This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/upscale organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the evening hours. Lesser risk with southwestward extent should gradually diminish after sunset. ...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity... As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast, a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rather weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters, along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage. Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North Carolina vicinity. ...Synopsis... While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance into/across the north-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the Plains through the period. ...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains... As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas. While both instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range. This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/upscale organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the evening hours. Lesser risk with southwestward extent should gradually diminish after sunset. ...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity... As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast, a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rather weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters, along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage. Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North Carolina vicinity. ...Synopsis... While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance into/across the north-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the Plains through the period. ...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains... As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas. While both instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range. This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/upscale organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the evening hours. Lesser risk with southwestward extent should gradually diminish after sunset. ...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity... As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast, a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rather weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters, along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage. Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more