SPC Aug 26, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 26, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 26, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel trough (described below) and related southwesterly jet, 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH is expected over the higher terrain from southwest MT into east-central ID. While this may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/early evening, the threat appears too localized/marginal for highlights -- especially given modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more