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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH INTO WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Northeast on Saturday. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more MCVs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support moderate to locally strong buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization remains rather uncertain. Scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, in the presence of rich moisture and somewhat favorable low-level shear/SRH. A Slight Risk has been added from OH into western PA. Some expansion of this risk area is possible with time, depending on extent of destabilization farther east, and storm coverage farther southwest. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized severe gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH INTO WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Northeast on Saturday. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more MCVs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support moderate to locally strong buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization remains rather uncertain. Scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, in the presence of rich moisture and somewhat favorable low-level shear/SRH. A Slight Risk has been added from OH into western PA. Some expansion of this risk area is possible with time, depending on extent of destabilization farther east, and storm coverage farther southwest. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized severe gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH INTO WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Northeast on Saturday. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more MCVs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support moderate to locally strong buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization remains rather uncertain. Scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, in the presence of rich moisture and somewhat favorable low-level shear/SRH. A Slight Risk has been added from OH into western PA. Some expansion of this risk area is possible with time, depending on extent of destabilization farther east, and storm coverage farther southwest. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized severe gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH INTO WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Northeast on Saturday. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more MCVs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support moderate to locally strong buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization remains rather uncertain. Scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, in the presence of rich moisture and somewhat favorable low-level shear/SRH. A Slight Risk has been added from OH into western PA. Some expansion of this risk area is possible with time, depending on extent of destabilization farther east, and storm coverage farther southwest. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized severe gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH INTO WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Northeast on Saturday. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more MCVs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support moderate to locally strong buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization remains rather uncertain. Scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, in the presence of rich moisture and somewhat favorable low-level shear/SRH. A Slight Risk has been added from OH into western PA. Some expansion of this risk area is possible with time, depending on extent of destabilization farther east, and storm coverage farther southwest. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized severe gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ..Wendt.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ..Wendt.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ..Wendt.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ..Wendt.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ..Wendt.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST CO...MUCH OF NE/KS/IA...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN MN... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas into MN, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Elevated convection may be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into parts of MN. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection across the region. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible near the front from eastern NE/northeast KS into southern MN/western IA/northwest MO. Hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms across the warm sector. In addition, some tornado threat may evolve with any sustained supercell, especially from southeast NE/eastern KS into northwest MO/southwest IA, where buoyancy may be maximized, and low-level shear/SRH will be somewhat enhanced into the evening. Farther west, organized storms may also develop near and north of the front across the central High Plains. Initial supercell development will be possible from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth into multiple clusters or a small MCS may occur with time, which could pose at least a localized threat of significant severe gusts. The Slight Risk has been expanded to cover the scenarios described above, though some uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST CO...MUCH OF NE/KS/IA...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN MN... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas into MN, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Elevated convection may be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into parts of MN. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection across the region. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible near the front from eastern NE/northeast KS into southern MN/western IA/northwest MO. Hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms across the warm sector. In addition, some tornado threat may evolve with any sustained supercell, especially from southeast NE/eastern KS into northwest MO/southwest IA, where buoyancy may be maximized, and low-level shear/SRH will be somewhat enhanced into the evening. Farther west, organized storms may also develop near and north of the front across the central High Plains. Initial supercell development will be possible from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth into multiple clusters or a small MCS may occur with time, which could pose at least a localized threat of significant severe gusts. The Slight Risk has been expanded to cover the scenarios described above, though some uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST CO...MUCH OF NE/KS/IA...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN MN... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas into MN, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Elevated convection may be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into parts of MN. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection across the region. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible near the front from eastern NE/northeast KS into southern MN/western IA/northwest MO. Hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms across the warm sector. In addition, some tornado threat may evolve with any sustained supercell, especially from southeast NE/eastern KS into northwest MO/southwest IA, where buoyancy may be maximized, and low-level shear/SRH will be somewhat enhanced into the evening. Farther west, organized storms may also develop near and north of the front across the central High Plains. Initial supercell development will be possible from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth into multiple clusters or a small MCS may occur with time, which could pose at least a localized threat of significant severe gusts. The Slight Risk has been expanded to cover the scenarios described above, though some uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST CO...MUCH OF NE/KS/IA...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN MN... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas into MN, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Elevated convection may be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into parts of MN. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection across the region. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible near the front from eastern NE/northeast KS into southern MN/western IA/northwest MO. Hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms across the warm sector. In addition, some tornado threat may evolve with any sustained supercell, especially from southeast NE/eastern KS into northwest MO/southwest IA, where buoyancy may be maximized, and low-level shear/SRH will be somewhat enhanced into the evening. Farther west, organized storms may also develop near and north of the front across the central High Plains. Initial supercell development will be possible from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth into multiple clusters or a small MCS may occur with time, which could pose at least a localized threat of significant severe gusts. The Slight Risk has been expanded to cover the scenarios described above, though some uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST CO...MUCH OF NE/KS/IA...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN MN... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas into MN, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Elevated convection may be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into parts of MN. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection across the region. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible near the front from eastern NE/northeast KS into southern MN/western IA/northwest MO. Hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms across the warm sector. In addition, some tornado threat may evolve with any sustained supercell, especially from southeast NE/eastern KS into northwest MO/southwest IA, where buoyancy may be maximized, and low-level shear/SRH will be somewhat enhanced into the evening. Farther west, organized storms may also develop near and north of the front across the central High Plains. Initial supercell development will be possible from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth into multiple clusters or a small MCS may occur with time, which could pose at least a localized threat of significant severe gusts. The Slight Risk has been expanded to cover the scenarios described above, though some uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST CO...MUCH OF NE/KS/IA...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas into MN, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Elevated convection may be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into parts of MN. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection across the region. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible near the front from eastern NE/northeast KS into southern MN/western IA/northwest MO. Hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms across the warm sector. In addition, some tornado threat may evolve with any sustained supercell, especially from southeast NE/eastern KS into northwest MO/southwest IA, where buoyancy may be maximized, and low-level shear/SRH will be somewhat enhanced into the evening. Farther west, organized storms may also develop near and north of the front across the central High Plains. Initial supercell development will be possible from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth into multiple clusters or a small MCS may occur with time, which could pose at least a localized threat of significant severe gusts. The Slight Risk has been expanded to cover the scenarios described above, though some uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms are possible over parts of the western US and the Southeast. ...MT and the Dakotas... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will weaken under the influence of a deepening mid-level low over the Pacific Northwest. Ascent from the deepening low and strengthening flow aloft will aid in the development of a surface lee cyclone over eastern MT. Surface-pressure falls will increase low-level advection of rich boundary-layer moisture over the central and northern Plains northwest into eastern MT and the western Dakotas by midday. Steepening mid-level lapse rates, increasing large-scale ascent, moist advection, and diurnal heating will rapidly destabilize the air mass, allowing for scattered thunderstorm development. Convective development appears likely over several areas of the northern Rockies/High Plains by early to mid afternoon. A cold front trailing the low in central MT will likely initiate first, followed by the surface low in eastern MT and western ND, and along a trailing dryline into portions of western SD and far northeastern WY. With moderate buoyancy and increasingly strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt, convection should rapidly organize into supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and the initial discrete mode will favor large to very large hail with these supercells. Backed southeasterly upslope flow and large low-level CAPE near the surface low also suggest the potential for a couple tornadoes, especially with supercells that remain discrete into the early evening. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS with a threat for damaging gusts is likely later this evening, and could persist overnight with ample buoyancy and a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet over the northern Plains. ...Central and southern High Plains... Widely scattered storm development is expected late this afternoon along the dryline from western SD into western NE, as temperatures warm and inhibition is removed from upslope flow and the approach of the upper low. Rich moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) and steep mid-level lapse rates will support large buoyancy by early afternoon. Albeit weaker, on the southern fringes of the better flow aloft, adequate deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of all hazards, with eventual upscale growth occurring this evening. Farther south, more isolated storm coverage is expected into parts of eastern CO and western KS. Likely higher based, owing to very warm temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s F, damaging winds and hail will be possible with a mix of mutlicells and transient supercells. Some clustering is expected into the evening hours with the risk for damaging gusts shifting into parts of central KS and northern OK. However, the exact eastward extent remains unclear, given stronger capping and weakening upper-level support to the south and east. ...Eastern UT into Western CO and southern WY... Modest ascent from the approaching trough combined with diurnal orographic circulations will support scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Intermountain west from mid morning through the afternoon. Relatively high dewpoints in the low 50s F and steep lapse rates will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg forecast. Scattered organized storms, including supercells, should form over the higher terrain and along the trailing cold front/wind shift eastern UT into southwest WY and northwest CO. Damaging winds and hail are likely with the more robust storms. While low-level shear is not overly strong, favorable terrain interactions and the supercell mode could also support a tornado or two. ...Southeast... An upper trough over the eastern COUS will phase with a modest subtropical vort max rounding the eastern periphery of the rapidly flattening ridge over the southeastern CONUS. Subtle ascent from the phasing of the two troughs will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms over portions of AL/GA and into the Carolinas along a diffuse surface boundary. A very warm and moist air mass will allow for moderate to large buoyancy supporting strong updrafts despite poor mid-level lapse rates. While effective shear appears to be only modest (generally less than 15-20 kt), heavily water-loaded downdrafts may produce isolated pulse-type damaging gusts. A remnant MCV/weak upper-level support may also allow for the development of a loosely organized cluster of storms with time over portions of eastern GA and southern SC. A localized corridor of more sustained severe potential may develop, though confidence in exactly where remains low. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms are possible over parts of the western US and the Southeast. ...MT and the Dakotas... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will weaken under the influence of a deepening mid-level low over the Pacific Northwest. Ascent from the deepening low and strengthening flow aloft will aid in the development of a surface lee cyclone over eastern MT. Surface-pressure falls will increase low-level advection of rich boundary-layer moisture over the central and northern Plains northwest into eastern MT and the western Dakotas by midday. Steepening mid-level lapse rates, increasing large-scale ascent, moist advection, and diurnal heating will rapidly destabilize the air mass, allowing for scattered thunderstorm development. Convective development appears likely over several areas of the northern Rockies/High Plains by early to mid afternoon. A cold front trailing the low in central MT will likely initiate first, followed by the surface low in eastern MT and western ND, and along a trailing dryline into portions of western SD and far northeastern WY. With moderate buoyancy and increasingly strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt, convection should rapidly organize into supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and the initial discrete mode will favor large to very large hail with these supercells. Backed southeasterly upslope flow and large low-level CAPE near the surface low also suggest the potential for a couple tornadoes, especially with supercells that remain discrete into the early evening. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS with a threat for damaging gusts is likely later this evening, and could persist overnight with ample buoyancy and a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet over the northern Plains. ...Central and southern High Plains... Widely scattered storm development is expected late this afternoon along the dryline from western SD into western NE, as temperatures warm and inhibition is removed from upslope flow and the approach of the upper low. Rich moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) and steep mid-level lapse rates will support large buoyancy by early afternoon. Albeit weaker, on the southern fringes of the better flow aloft, adequate deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of all hazards, with eventual upscale growth occurring this evening. Farther south, more isolated storm coverage is expected into parts of eastern CO and western KS. Likely higher based, owing to very warm temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s F, damaging winds and hail will be possible with a mix of mutlicells and transient supercells. Some clustering is expected into the evening hours with the risk for damaging gusts shifting into parts of central KS and northern OK. However, the exact eastward extent remains unclear, given stronger capping and weakening upper-level support to the south and east. ...Eastern UT into Western CO and southern WY... Modest ascent from the approaching trough combined with diurnal orographic circulations will support scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Intermountain west from mid morning through the afternoon. Relatively high dewpoints in the low 50s F and steep lapse rates will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg forecast. Scattered organized storms, including supercells, should form over the higher terrain and along the trailing cold front/wind shift eastern UT into southwest WY and northwest CO. Damaging winds and hail are likely with the more robust storms. While low-level shear is not overly strong, favorable terrain interactions and the supercell mode could also support a tornado or two. ...Southeast... An upper trough over the eastern COUS will phase with a modest subtropical vort max rounding the eastern periphery of the rapidly flattening ridge over the southeastern CONUS. Subtle ascent from the phasing of the two troughs will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms over portions of AL/GA and into the Carolinas along a diffuse surface boundary. A very warm and moist air mass will allow for moderate to large buoyancy supporting strong updrafts despite poor mid-level lapse rates. While effective shear appears to be only modest (generally less than 15-20 kt), heavily water-loaded downdrafts may produce isolated pulse-type damaging gusts. A remnant MCV/weak upper-level support may also allow for the development of a loosely organized cluster of storms with time over portions of eastern GA and southern SC. A localized corridor of more sustained severe potential may develop, though confidence in exactly where remains low. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms are possible over parts of the western US and the Southeast. ...MT and the Dakotas... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will weaken under the influence of a deepening mid-level low over the Pacific Northwest. Ascent from the deepening low and strengthening flow aloft will aid in the development of a surface lee cyclone over eastern MT. Surface-pressure falls will increase low-level advection of rich boundary-layer moisture over the central and northern Plains northwest into eastern MT and the western Dakotas by midday. Steepening mid-level lapse rates, increasing large-scale ascent, moist advection, and diurnal heating will rapidly destabilize the air mass, allowing for scattered thunderstorm development. Convective development appears likely over several areas of the northern Rockies/High Plains by early to mid afternoon. A cold front trailing the low in central MT will likely initiate first, followed by the surface low in eastern MT and western ND, and along a trailing dryline into portions of western SD and far northeastern WY. With moderate buoyancy and increasingly strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt, convection should rapidly organize into supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and the initial discrete mode will favor large to very large hail with these supercells. Backed southeasterly upslope flow and large low-level CAPE near the surface low also suggest the potential for a couple tornadoes, especially with supercells that remain discrete into the early evening. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS with a threat for damaging gusts is likely later this evening, and could persist overnight with ample buoyancy and a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet over the northern Plains. ...Central and southern High Plains... Widely scattered storm development is expected late this afternoon along the dryline from western SD into western NE, as temperatures warm and inhibition is removed from upslope flow and the approach of the upper low. Rich moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) and steep mid-level lapse rates will support large buoyancy by early afternoon. Albeit weaker, on the southern fringes of the better flow aloft, adequate deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of all hazards, with eventual upscale growth occurring this evening. Farther south, more isolated storm coverage is expected into parts of eastern CO and western KS. Likely higher based, owing to very warm temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s F, damaging winds and hail will be possible with a mix of mutlicells and transient supercells. Some clustering is expected into the evening hours with the risk for damaging gusts shifting into parts of central KS and northern OK. However, the exact eastward extent remains unclear, given stronger capping and weakening upper-level support to the south and east. ...Eastern UT into Western CO and southern WY... Modest ascent from the approaching trough combined with diurnal orographic circulations will support scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Intermountain west from mid morning through the afternoon. Relatively high dewpoints in the low 50s F and steep lapse rates will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg forecast. Scattered organized storms, including supercells, should form over the higher terrain and along the trailing cold front/wind shift eastern UT into southwest WY and northwest CO. Damaging winds and hail are likely with the more robust storms. While low-level shear is not overly strong, favorable terrain interactions and the supercell mode could also support a tornado or two. ...Southeast... An upper trough over the eastern COUS will phase with a modest subtropical vort max rounding the eastern periphery of the rapidly flattening ridge over the southeastern CONUS. Subtle ascent from the phasing of the two troughs will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms over portions of AL/GA and into the Carolinas along a diffuse surface boundary. A very warm and moist air mass will allow for moderate to large buoyancy supporting strong updrafts despite poor mid-level lapse rates. While effective shear appears to be only modest (generally less than 15-20 kt), heavily water-loaded downdrafts may produce isolated pulse-type damaging gusts. A remnant MCV/weak upper-level support may also allow for the development of a loosely organized cluster of storms with time over portions of eastern GA and southern SC. A localized corridor of more sustained severe potential may develop, though confidence in exactly where remains low. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms are possible over parts of the western US and the Southeast. ...MT and the Dakotas... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will weaken under the influence of a deepening mid-level low over the Pacific Northwest. Ascent from the deepening low and strengthening flow aloft will aid in the development of a surface lee cyclone over eastern MT. Surface-pressure falls will increase low-level advection of rich boundary-layer moisture over the central and northern Plains northwest into eastern MT and the western Dakotas by midday. Steepening mid-level lapse rates, increasing large-scale ascent, moist advection, and diurnal heating will rapidly destabilize the air mass, allowing for scattered thunderstorm development. Convective development appears likely over several areas of the northern Rockies/High Plains by early to mid afternoon. A cold front trailing the low in central MT will likely initiate first, followed by the surface low in eastern MT and western ND, and along a trailing dryline into portions of western SD and far northeastern WY. With moderate buoyancy and increasingly strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt, convection should rapidly organize into supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and the initial discrete mode will favor large to very large hail with these supercells. Backed southeasterly upslope flow and large low-level CAPE near the surface low also suggest the potential for a couple tornadoes, especially with supercells that remain discrete into the early evening. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster or MCS with a threat for damaging gusts is likely later this evening, and could persist overnight with ample buoyancy and a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet over the northern Plains. ...Central and southern High Plains... Widely scattered storm development is expected late this afternoon along the dryline from western SD into western NE, as temperatures warm and inhibition is removed from upslope flow and the approach of the upper low. Rich moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) and steep mid-level lapse rates will support large buoyancy by early afternoon. Albeit weaker, on the southern fringes of the better flow aloft, adequate deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of all hazards, with eventual upscale growth occurring this evening. Farther south, more isolated storm coverage is expected into parts of eastern CO and western KS. Likely higher based, owing to very warm temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s F, damaging winds and hail will be possible with a mix of mutlicells and transient supercells. Some clustering is expected into the evening hours with the risk for damaging gusts shifting into parts of central KS and northern OK. However, the exact eastward extent remains unclear, given stronger capping and weakening upper-level support to the south and east. ...Eastern UT into Western CO and southern WY... Modest ascent from the approaching trough combined with diurnal orographic circulations will support scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Intermountain west from mid morning through the afternoon. Relatively high dewpoints in the low 50s F and steep lapse rates will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg forecast. Scattered organized storms, including supercells, should form over the higher terrain and along the trailing cold front/wind shift eastern UT into southwest WY and northwest CO. Damaging winds and hail are likely with the more robust storms. While low-level shear is not overly strong, favorable terrain interactions and the supercell mode could also support a tornado or two. ...Southeast... An upper trough over the eastern COUS will phase with a modest subtropical vort max rounding the eastern periphery of the rapidly flattening ridge over the southeastern CONUS. Subtle ascent from the phasing of the two troughs will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms over portions of AL/GA and into the Carolinas along a diffuse surface boundary. A very warm and moist air mass will allow for moderate to large buoyancy supporting strong updrafts despite poor mid-level lapse rates. While effective shear appears to be only modest (generally less than 15-20 kt), heavily water-loaded downdrafts may produce isolated pulse-type damaging gusts. A remnant MCV/weak upper-level support may also allow for the development of a loosely organized cluster of storms with time over portions of eastern GA and southern SC. A localized corridor of more sustained severe potential may develop, though confidence in exactly where remains low. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/27/2024 Read more