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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GSB TO 35 NNW EWN TO 40 SSW ECG TO 25 SSE ECG TO 75 E ECG. ..BENTLEY..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 242140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-231-250-252-242140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GSB TO 35 NNW EWN TO 40 SSW ECG TO 25 SSE ECG TO 75 E ECG. ..BENTLEY..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 242140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-231-250-252-242140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GSB TO 35 NNW EWN TO 40 SSW ECG TO 25 SSE ECG TO 75 E ECG. ..BENTLEY..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 242140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-231-250-252-242140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial supercell development, confidence is below-average for further increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for potentially destructive wind gusts. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial supercell development, confidence is below-average for further increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for potentially destructive wind gusts. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial supercell development, confidence is below-average for further increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for potentially destructive wind gusts. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial supercell development, confidence is below-average for further increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for potentially destructive wind gusts. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial supercell development, confidence is below-average for further increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for potentially destructive wind gusts. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial supercell development, confidence is below-average for further increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for potentially destructive wind gusts. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial supercell development, confidence is below-average for further increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for potentially destructive wind gusts. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial supercell development, confidence is below-average for further increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for potentially destructive wind gusts. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial supercell development, confidence is below-average for further increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for potentially destructive wind gusts. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. Read more