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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ..Barnes.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HSI TO 10 NE HSI TO 20 S OLU. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC035-059-081-129-169-185-260740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY FILLMORE HAMILTON NUCKOLLS THAYER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HSI TO 10 NE HSI TO 20 S OLU. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC035-059-081-129-169-185-260740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY FILLMORE HAMILTON NUCKOLLS THAYER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HSI TO 10 NE HSI TO 20 S OLU. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC035-059-081-129-169-185-260740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY FILLMORE HAMILTON NUCKOLLS THAYER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HSI TO 10 NE HSI TO 20 S OLU. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC035-059-081-129-169-185-260740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY FILLMORE HAMILTON NUCKOLLS THAYER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HSI TO 10 NE HSI TO 20 S OLU. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC035-059-081-129-169-185-260740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY FILLMORE HAMILTON NUCKOLLS THAYER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HSI TO 10 NE HSI TO 20 S OLU. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC035-059-081-129-169-185-260740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY FILLMORE HAMILTON NUCKOLLS THAYER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 460 SEVERE TSTM NE 260345Z - 260900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 460 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1045 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter and severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph this evening and overnight as they move southeastward. The severe wind threat will be greatest where thunderstorms can congeal into a bowing cluster, which already appears to be underway across north-central Nebraska. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Broken Bow NE to 50 miles east of Grand Island NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458...WW 459... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more