SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DSM TO 20 WNW OTM TO 30 N IRK. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...ILX...LOT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-029-039-049-053-071-077-085-117-121-125-129- 133-135-137-145-153-155-159-165-173-175-181-185-260440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR FREMONT GUTHRIE HARRISON LUCAS MADISON MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION WARREN WAYNE NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-053-055-077-107-109-119-121- 125-131-139-141-143-153-155-159-167-173-175-177-179-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BURT BUTLER CASS CEDAR Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DSM TO 20 WNW OTM TO 30 N IRK. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...ILX...LOT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-029-039-049-053-071-077-085-117-121-125-129- 133-135-137-145-153-155-159-165-173-175-181-185-260440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR FREMONT GUTHRIE HARRISON LUCAS MADISON MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION WARREN WAYNE NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-053-055-077-107-109-119-121- 125-131-139-141-143-153-155-159-167-173-175-177-179-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BURT BUTLER CASS CEDAR Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DSM TO 20 WNW OTM TO 30 N IRK. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...ILX...LOT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-029-039-049-053-071-077-085-117-121-125-129- 133-135-137-145-153-155-159-165-173-175-181-185-260440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR FREMONT GUTHRIE HARRISON LUCAS MADISON MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION WARREN WAYNE NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-053-055-077-107-109-119-121- 125-131-139-141-143-153-155-159-167-173-175-177-179-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BURT BUTLER CASS CEDAR Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DSM TO 20 WNW OTM TO 30 N IRK. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...ILX...LOT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-029-039-049-053-071-077-085-117-121-125-129- 133-135-137-145-153-155-159-165-173-175-181-185-260440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR FREMONT GUTHRIE HARRISON LUCAS MADISON MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION WARREN WAYNE NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-053-055-077-107-109-119-121- 125-131-139-141-143-153-155-159-167-173-175-177-179-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BURT BUTLER CASS CEDAR Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DSM TO 20 WNW OTM TO 30 N IRK. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...ILX...LOT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-029-039-049-053-071-077-085-117-121-125-129- 133-135-137-145-153-155-159-165-173-175-181-185-260440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR FREMONT GUTHRIE HARRISON LUCAS MADISON MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION WARREN WAYNE NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-053-055-077-107-109-119-121- 125-131-139-141-143-153-155-159-167-173-175-177-179-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BURT BUTLER CASS CEDAR Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DSM TO 20 WNW OTM TO 30 N IRK. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...ILX...LOT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-029-039-049-053-071-077-085-117-121-125-129- 133-135-137-145-153-155-159-165-173-175-181-185-260440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR FREMONT GUTHRIE HARRISON LUCAS MADISON MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION WARREN WAYNE NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-053-055-077-107-109-119-121- 125-131-139-141-143-153-155-159-167-173-175-177-179-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BURT BUTLER CASS CEDAR Read more

SPC MD 1418

1 year ago
MD 1418 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458... FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Areas affected...portions of Nebraska and south-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458... Valid 260210Z - 260345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues spreading south-southeastward into/across northern Nebraska east of the Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated severe storms occurring across portions of the northern half of Nebraska at this time. THe strongest storm currently resides on the southern portion of a loosely organized cluster extending from south-central South Dakota to the aforementioned southern storm -- now crossing Grant and Hooker Counties. This storm remains capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts, and radar indications are that a tornado is ongoing at this time as well. Southward expansion of WW 458 -- or new WW issuance, may be needed as the threat expands southward/southeastward. ..Goss.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42700200 43300012 42789876 42019827 40999791 40589958 40850100 41580196 42700200 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459

1 year ago
WW 459 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO NE 252215Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Northern Illinois Far Northeast Missouri Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 515 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Robust thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly sag east-southeastward late this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter along with 60-70 mph wind gusts should be the main threats. A brief landspout tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Norfolk NE to 20 miles northeast of Peoria IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 457...WW 458... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MHN TO 40 ENE ANW TO 40 NNE ONL. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-071-089-115-149-171-183-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN GARFIELD HOLT LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MHN TO 40 ENE ANW TO 40 NNE ONL. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-071-089-115-149-171-183-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN GARFIELD HOLT LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MHN TO 40 ENE ANW TO 40 NNE ONL. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-071-089-115-149-171-183-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN GARFIELD HOLT LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MHN TO 40 ENE ANW TO 40 NNE ONL. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-071-089-115-149-171-183-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN GARFIELD HOLT LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MHN TO 40 ENE ANW TO 40 NNE ONL. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-071-089-115-149-171-183-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN GARFIELD HOLT LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MHN TO 40 ENE ANW TO 40 NNE ONL. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-071-089-115-149-171-183-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN GARFIELD HOLT LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458

1 year ago
WW 458 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 252155Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Nebraska Southwest and south-central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercells should continue to pose a threat for large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter, along with severe/damaging winds of 60-75 mph, as they move east-southeastward this afternoon and evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Philip SD to 15 miles east southeast of Oneill NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 457... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...ILX...LOT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-015-057-067-071-073-095-099-103-109-123-131-141-143-155- 161-175-179-187-195-203-260240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU CARROLL FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY KNOX LA SALLE LEE MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MERCER OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WOODFORD IAC001-003-007-009-029-031-039-045-049-051-053-057-071-077-085- 087-095-099-101-103-107-111-115-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137- 139-145-153-155-157-159-163-165-173-175-177-179-181-183-185- 260240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON CASS CEDAR CLARKE CLINTON DALLAS Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CDR TO 25 SSW PHP TO 30 E PHP. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-031-071-075-089-091-103-115-149-171-183-260240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHERRY GARFIELD GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER SDC007-095-121-123-260240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT MELLETTE TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Jun 26, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC Jun 26, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more