Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1616 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 532... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OH INTO NORTHERN KY AND WESTERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 1616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southern/central OH into northern KY and western WV Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532... Valid 142037Z - 142200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging to severe wind gusts remain possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...An MCS moving across southwest OH has recently produced a 51 kt measured gust at KDAY and 57 kt at KILN. The immediate downstream thermodynamic environment remains somewhat favorable, with steep low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, so potentially damaging wind gusts of 50-65 mph will remain possible through late afternoon. Farther downstream, instability weakens within a drier environment across southeast OH into western WV. With some warming of cloud tops already noted on IR imagery, gradual weakening of this MCS seems likely with time into the evening. With the remaining threat potentially becoming rather isolated and confined in areal extent, downstream watch issuance is considered unlikely at this time. However, some threat for isolated damaging wind may persist into parts of southeast OH and extreme western WV into early evening. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40438290 40388193 40098139 38998150 38588240 38548345 38538378 38708412 38848428 39118436 39168404 39208373 39418337 40438290 Read more

MD 1615 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF IA...NORTHERN IL...SOUTHERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Parts of IA...northern IL...southern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142015Z - 142145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is expected later this afternoon into the evening. Eventual watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Rather strong heating/destabilization is underway across much of IA this afternoon, while recovery in the wake of morning convection/outflow is ongoing across northern IL. Meanwhile, the remnant MCV from last night's severe MCS over the Dakotas is currently moving across northern IA. As MLCINH continues to erode across northern/eastern IA and MLCAPE increases above 3000 J/kg, the MCV may aid in scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Midlevel flow is not particularly strong across the region, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt and potential for some storm organization. Initial discrete development could evolve into a supercell or two, with a threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. In conjunction with the MCV, a persistent 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet could encourage relatively quick clustering and upscale growth, with some potential for an MCS to develop and move eastward across northern IL and southern WI this evening, with a continued severe-wind threat. Farther northwest, in the wake of the MCV, cumulus is deepening along a weak surface boundary across northwest IA. While this area is in the immediate wake of the MCV, strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear would support severe-thunderstorm potential in this area as well, if storms can mature. While favored timing and area remain somewhat uncertain, watch issuance will become increasingly likely if storm initiation appears imminent across the region. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 41389383 41709465 42059481 42449490 42889500 43119456 43259293 43209113 43169047 43068900 42938781 41838741 41238742 40888855 40838996 40879116 40969178 41019259 41389383 Read more

WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LUK TO 50 W UNI TO 20 SSE CMH TO 15 NE MFD. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC045-073-083-089-141-142240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HOCKING KNOX LICKING ROSS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LUK TO 50 W UNI TO 20 SSE CMH TO 15 NE MFD. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC045-073-083-089-141-142240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HOCKING KNOX LICKING ROSS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LUK TO 50 W UNI TO 20 SSE CMH TO 15 NE MFD. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC045-073-083-089-141-142240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HOCKING KNOX LICKING ROSS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LUK TO 50 W UNI TO 20 SSE CMH TO 15 NE MFD. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC045-073-083-089-141-142240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HOCKING KNOX LICKING ROSS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LUK TO 50 W UNI TO 20 SSE CMH TO 15 NE MFD. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC045-073-083-089-141-142240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HOCKING KNOX LICKING ROSS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 532 SEVERE TSTM IN OH 141650Z - 142300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 532 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Indiana Central Ohio * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over northern Indiana will track southeastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Indianapolis IN to 30 miles east northeast of Columbus OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1614 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 532... FOR SOUTHERN IN INTO WESTERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Southern IN into western OH Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532... Valid 141906Z - 142030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for at least isolated damaging wind is expected to continue through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS continues to move east-southeastward across parts of southern IN into western OH this afternoon. Recent measured gusts have generally been in the 30-45 kt range, though some wind damage was reported earlier across northern IN. Generally weak low/midlevel flow may continue to limit organization potential through the afternoon. However, the downstream thermodynamic environment remains favorable for damaging-wind potential, with MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and steepening low-level lapse rates, and some threat for at least isolated damaging wind is expected to continue through late afternoon. ..Dean.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39548660 39838515 40368389 40818402 41058404 41148380 41118336 40938290 40638271 40258265 39728271 39488285 39258323 39248480 39228608 39548660 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z No changes are need to the previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z No changes are need to the previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more