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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...High Plains... Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from MT to CO, with several weak perturbations noted on water vapor imagery within the flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable CAPE later today for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Clusters of convection will form over the mountains and foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward into the higher instability axis. Other areas of storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills, and across parts of eastern MT. Large hail is the main concern with these storms, although the risk of isolated damaging wind will also increase during the late afternoon and evening as outflows congeal. ...Western MT... 12z model guidance continues to agree on the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the mountains of western MT. This region will be on the eastern fringe of stronger flow aloft, and where full sunshine will aid in destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As storms move off the higher terrain, merging outflows may result in strong/damaging wind gusts in the more organized storm clusters. One mitigating factor for severe in this region would be if the persistent cloud cover east of the mountains limits destabilization. ...Southeast VA/Northeast NC... Strong daytime heating is occurring today over parts of southeast VA and northeast NC, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Low and mid-level winds are relatively weak today, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize. However, given the extent of heating, a few cells may occasionally pose a risk of gusty winds through the early evening. ...New England... An upper trough is moving across the Northeast US today, with the associated surface cold front tracking eastward across much of New England this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the front. Visible satellite imagery suggest considerable cloud cover over this region, limiting daytime heating and suppressing steeper low-level lapse rates. This should lessen the overall severe threat today. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce gusty winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...High Plains... Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from MT to CO, with several weak perturbations noted on water vapor imagery within the flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable CAPE later today for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Clusters of convection will form over the mountains and foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward into the higher instability axis. Other areas of storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills, and across parts of eastern MT. Large hail is the main concern with these storms, although the risk of isolated damaging wind will also increase during the late afternoon and evening as outflows congeal. ...Western MT... 12z model guidance continues to agree on the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the mountains of western MT. This region will be on the eastern fringe of stronger flow aloft, and where full sunshine will aid in destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As storms move off the higher terrain, merging outflows may result in strong/damaging wind gusts in the more organized storm clusters. One mitigating factor for severe in this region would be if the persistent cloud cover east of the mountains limits destabilization. ...Southeast VA/Northeast NC... Strong daytime heating is occurring today over parts of southeast VA and northeast NC, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Low and mid-level winds are relatively weak today, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize. However, given the extent of heating, a few cells may occasionally pose a risk of gusty winds through the early evening. ...New England... An upper trough is moving across the Northeast US today, with the associated surface cold front tracking eastward across much of New England this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the front. Visible satellite imagery suggest considerable cloud cover over this region, limiting daytime heating and suppressing steeper low-level lapse rates. This should lessen the overall severe threat today. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce gusty winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...High Plains... Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from MT to CO, with several weak perturbations noted on water vapor imagery within the flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable CAPE later today for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Clusters of convection will form over the mountains and foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward into the higher instability axis. Other areas of storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills, and across parts of eastern MT. Large hail is the main concern with these storms, although the risk of isolated damaging wind will also increase during the late afternoon and evening as outflows congeal. ...Western MT... 12z model guidance continues to agree on the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the mountains of western MT. This region will be on the eastern fringe of stronger flow aloft, and where full sunshine will aid in destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As storms move off the higher terrain, merging outflows may result in strong/damaging wind gusts in the more organized storm clusters. One mitigating factor for severe in this region would be if the persistent cloud cover east of the mountains limits destabilization. ...Southeast VA/Northeast NC... Strong daytime heating is occurring today over parts of southeast VA and northeast NC, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Low and mid-level winds are relatively weak today, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize. However, given the extent of heating, a few cells may occasionally pose a risk of gusty winds through the early evening. ...New England... An upper trough is moving across the Northeast US today, with the associated surface cold front tracking eastward across much of New England this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the front. Visible satellite imagery suggest considerable cloud cover over this region, limiting daytime heating and suppressing steeper low-level lapse rates. This should lessen the overall severe threat today. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce gusty winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...High Plains... Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from MT to CO, with several weak perturbations noted on water vapor imagery within the flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable CAPE later today for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Clusters of convection will form over the mountains and foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward into the higher instability axis. Other areas of storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills, and across parts of eastern MT. Large hail is the main concern with these storms, although the risk of isolated damaging wind will also increase during the late afternoon and evening as outflows congeal. ...Western MT... 12z model guidance continues to agree on the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the mountains of western MT. This region will be on the eastern fringe of stronger flow aloft, and where full sunshine will aid in destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As storms move off the higher terrain, merging outflows may result in strong/damaging wind gusts in the more organized storm clusters. One mitigating factor for severe in this region would be if the persistent cloud cover east of the mountains limits destabilization. ...Southeast VA/Northeast NC... Strong daytime heating is occurring today over parts of southeast VA and northeast NC, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Low and mid-level winds are relatively weak today, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize. However, given the extent of heating, a few cells may occasionally pose a risk of gusty winds through the early evening. ...New England... An upper trough is moving across the Northeast US today, with the associated surface cold front tracking eastward across much of New England this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the front. Visible satellite imagery suggest considerable cloud cover over this region, limiting daytime heating and suppressing steeper low-level lapse rates. This should lessen the overall severe threat today. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce gusty winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...High Plains... Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from MT to CO, with several weak perturbations noted on water vapor imagery within the flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable CAPE later today for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Clusters of convection will form over the mountains and foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward into the higher instability axis. Other areas of storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills, and across parts of eastern MT. Large hail is the main concern with these storms, although the risk of isolated damaging wind will also increase during the late afternoon and evening as outflows congeal. ...Western MT... 12z model guidance continues to agree on the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the mountains of western MT. This region will be on the eastern fringe of stronger flow aloft, and where full sunshine will aid in destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As storms move off the higher terrain, merging outflows may result in strong/damaging wind gusts in the more organized storm clusters. One mitigating factor for severe in this region would be if the persistent cloud cover east of the mountains limits destabilization. ...Southeast VA/Northeast NC... Strong daytime heating is occurring today over parts of southeast VA and northeast NC, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Low and mid-level winds are relatively weak today, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize. However, given the extent of heating, a few cells may occasionally pose a risk of gusty winds through the early evening. ...New England... An upper trough is moving across the Northeast US today, with the associated surface cold front tracking eastward across much of New England this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the front. Visible satellite imagery suggest considerable cloud cover over this region, limiting daytime heating and suppressing steeper low-level lapse rates. This should lessen the overall severe threat today. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce gusty winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...High Plains... Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from MT to CO, with several weak perturbations noted on water vapor imagery within the flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable CAPE later today for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Clusters of convection will form over the mountains and foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward into the higher instability axis. Other areas of storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills, and across parts of eastern MT. Large hail is the main concern with these storms, although the risk of isolated damaging wind will also increase during the late afternoon and evening as outflows congeal. ...Western MT... 12z model guidance continues to agree on the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the mountains of western MT. This region will be on the eastern fringe of stronger flow aloft, and where full sunshine will aid in destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As storms move off the higher terrain, merging outflows may result in strong/damaging wind gusts in the more organized storm clusters. One mitigating factor for severe in this region would be if the persistent cloud cover east of the mountains limits destabilization. ...Southeast VA/Northeast NC... Strong daytime heating is occurring today over parts of southeast VA and northeast NC, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Low and mid-level winds are relatively weak today, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize. However, given the extent of heating, a few cells may occasionally pose a risk of gusty winds through the early evening. ...New England... An upper trough is moving across the Northeast US today, with the associated surface cold front tracking eastward across much of New England this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the front. Visible satellite imagery suggest considerable cloud cover over this region, limiting daytime heating and suppressing steeper low-level lapse rates. This should lessen the overall severe threat today. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce gusty winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...High Plains... Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from MT to CO, with several weak perturbations noted on water vapor imagery within the flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable CAPE later today for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Clusters of convection will form over the mountains and foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward into the higher instability axis. Other areas of storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills, and across parts of eastern MT. Large hail is the main concern with these storms, although the risk of isolated damaging wind will also increase during the late afternoon and evening as outflows congeal. ...Western MT... 12z model guidance continues to agree on the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the mountains of western MT. This region will be on the eastern fringe of stronger flow aloft, and where full sunshine will aid in destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As storms move off the higher terrain, merging outflows may result in strong/damaging wind gusts in the more organized storm clusters. One mitigating factor for severe in this region would be if the persistent cloud cover east of the mountains limits destabilization. ...Southeast VA/Northeast NC... Strong daytime heating is occurring today over parts of southeast VA and northeast NC, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Low and mid-level winds are relatively weak today, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize. However, given the extent of heating, a few cells may occasionally pose a risk of gusty winds through the early evening. ...New England... An upper trough is moving across the Northeast US today, with the associated surface cold front tracking eastward across much of New England this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the front. Visible satellite imagery suggest considerable cloud cover over this region, limiting daytime heating and suppressing steeper low-level lapse rates. This should lessen the overall severe threat today. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce gusty winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...High Plains... Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from MT to CO, with several weak perturbations noted on water vapor imagery within the flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable CAPE later today for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Clusters of convection will form over the mountains and foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward into the higher instability axis. Other areas of storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills, and across parts of eastern MT. Large hail is the main concern with these storms, although the risk of isolated damaging wind will also increase during the late afternoon and evening as outflows congeal. ...Western MT... 12z model guidance continues to agree on the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the mountains of western MT. This region will be on the eastern fringe of stronger flow aloft, and where full sunshine will aid in destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As storms move off the higher terrain, merging outflows may result in strong/damaging wind gusts in the more organized storm clusters. One mitigating factor for severe in this region would be if the persistent cloud cover east of the mountains limits destabilization. ...Southeast VA/Northeast NC... Strong daytime heating is occurring today over parts of southeast VA and northeast NC, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Low and mid-level winds are relatively weak today, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize. However, given the extent of heating, a few cells may occasionally pose a risk of gusty winds through the early evening. ...New England... An upper trough is moving across the Northeast US today, with the associated surface cold front tracking eastward across much of New England this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the front. Visible satellite imagery suggest considerable cloud cover over this region, limiting daytime heating and suppressing steeper low-level lapse rates. This should lessen the overall severe threat today. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce gusty winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...High Plains... Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from MT to CO, with several weak perturbations noted on water vapor imagery within the flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable CAPE later today for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Clusters of convection will form over the mountains and foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward into the higher instability axis. Other areas of storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills, and across parts of eastern MT. Large hail is the main concern with these storms, although the risk of isolated damaging wind will also increase during the late afternoon and evening as outflows congeal. ...Western MT... 12z model guidance continues to agree on the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the mountains of western MT. This region will be on the eastern fringe of stronger flow aloft, and where full sunshine will aid in destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As storms move off the higher terrain, merging outflows may result in strong/damaging wind gusts in the more organized storm clusters. One mitigating factor for severe in this region would be if the persistent cloud cover east of the mountains limits destabilization. ...Southeast VA/Northeast NC... Strong daytime heating is occurring today over parts of southeast VA and northeast NC, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Low and mid-level winds are relatively weak today, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize. However, given the extent of heating, a few cells may occasionally pose a risk of gusty winds through the early evening. ...New England... An upper trough is moving across the Northeast US today, with the associated surface cold front tracking eastward across much of New England this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the front. Visible satellite imagery suggest considerable cloud cover over this region, limiting daytime heating and suppressing steeper low-level lapse rates. This should lessen the overall severe threat today. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce gusty winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/19/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 16:05:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 16:05:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 15:09:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 15:29:07 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 14:47:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 14:47:38 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 191443 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Recent AMSR and SSMIS imagery indicate that Gilma's center is located near the northeast edge of its deep convection, with little deep convection present in its northeast quadrant. This is due, at least in part, to upper-level easterly winds that are causing some shear across the cyclone. A consensus of objective and subjective intensity estimates from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory, which also agree well with earlier ASCAT data. The aforementioned wind shear is expected to persist for at least another day or two, which should limit the potential for strengthening. After around 36 h, global models indicate the shear will begin to decrease, which should allow for more strengthening. The exact timing of this strengthening is still highly uncertain, with several global models suggesting it could begin near the 36 h mark, while the HWRF indicates it won't begin to strengthen until closer to 60 h. Regardless, there is a good chance that Gilma will become a hurricane at some point before the end of the week. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, which follows the HCCA and IVCN intensity models. The track forecast is also largely unchanged from the previous NHC advisory. Gilma is currently moving west near 12 kt. A ridge extending westward from the southwest United States should keep Gilma on a similar heading today. After that, the tropical storm may interact with another disturbance to its west, while a trough off the U.S. west coast will begin to erode the ridge slightly. All models indicate that Gilma will generally slow down and turn west-northwestward in response to these steering changes, but there is unusually high spread in the guidance on the exact track the cyclone will take. The NHC track forecast follows the consensus aids, but confidence in the specifics of the forecast is lower than normal due to the high model spread. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 15.1N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 15.3N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 15.8N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 16.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 17.0N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 17.5N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 18.0N 124.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 191443 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 34 1 15(16) 10(26) 1(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 18(52) 1(53) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 1(18) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 19(32) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 191443 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.0W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.0W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.3N 117.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 119.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 122.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 123.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.0N 124.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 116.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 191443 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 ...GILMA CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 116.0W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 116.0 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). By tonight, a west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected to begin. Gilma is then expected to remain on that general heading through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Gilma could approach hurricane strength by mid-week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...GILMA CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 the center of Gilma was located near 15.1, -116.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN MONTANA...AND EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Montana and eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level ridge situated over the south-central High Plains northward through the northern Great Plains. A mid-level trough is over the East and a mid-level low and associated trough are over the eastern Pacific to the west of the Pacific Northwest. ...Portions of the central and northern Rockies/High Plains... Broad 40+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the central into the northern Rockies as an impulse embedded in the West Coast mid-level trough grazes the region. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across Montana with locally greater thunderstorm coverage forecast over western into north-central MT this afternoon and evening, and separately over portions of eastern Montana. Richer moisture is evident in morning surface analysis across eastern MT where lower 60s F surface dewpoints are present with mid 50s farther west near the I-15 corridor. Consequently, greater buoyancy is expected later this afternoon over eastern MT with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE possible with 750-1250 J/kg farther west. Given the deep boundary layer and corresponding steep lapse rates in both areas, severe gusts are possible with the more intense cells and clusters, especially if a linear cluster can evolve near the Rocky Mtn Front and push northeastward into the High Plains. Elsewhere, isolated instances of hail/wind may accompany the stronger thunderstorms from the eastern Great Basin northward into ID/WY. ...Eastern Colorado... Moist upslope flow during peak surface heating will result in thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s F beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile will contribute to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly elongated hodographs. Some of the stronger multicells and transient supercells may yield a risk for large hail and severe gusts beginning mid afternoon through the early evening. ...North Carolina into the Northeast... At least scattered thunderstorms will develop amid weak vertical wind shear this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Pulse cellular and occasional multicells are the expected storm mode. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, which may support a few strong, potentially damaging gusts with some of the stronger storms. ...North Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of a cold front by afternoon. Similar to the Northeast, rich low-level moisture will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, fostering wet downburst/strong wind gust potential with pulse single cells and multicells. ...Sabine River Valley... Ongoing clusters of weak thunderstorms moving southward on the backside of the Eastern U.S. mid-level trough will likely continue southward through the Sabine River Valley today. Although the 12 UTC Lake Charles raob is characterized as only weakly unstable, additional heating will result in moderate destabilization by midday. A localized wind-damage risk may accompany the stronger outflow surges before this activity moves into the northwest Gulf. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN MONTANA...AND EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Montana and eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level ridge situated over the south-central High Plains northward through the northern Great Plains. A mid-level trough is over the East and a mid-level low and associated trough are over the eastern Pacific to the west of the Pacific Northwest. ...Portions of the central and northern Rockies/High Plains... Broad 40+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the central into the northern Rockies as an impulse embedded in the West Coast mid-level trough grazes the region. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across Montana with locally greater thunderstorm coverage forecast over western into north-central MT this afternoon and evening, and separately over portions of eastern Montana. Richer moisture is evident in morning surface analysis across eastern MT where lower 60s F surface dewpoints are present with mid 50s farther west near the I-15 corridor. Consequently, greater buoyancy is expected later this afternoon over eastern MT with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE possible with 750-1250 J/kg farther west. Given the deep boundary layer and corresponding steep lapse rates in both areas, severe gusts are possible with the more intense cells and clusters, especially if a linear cluster can evolve near the Rocky Mtn Front and push northeastward into the High Plains. Elsewhere, isolated instances of hail/wind may accompany the stronger thunderstorms from the eastern Great Basin northward into ID/WY. ...Eastern Colorado... Moist upslope flow during peak surface heating will result in thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s F beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile will contribute to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly elongated hodographs. Some of the stronger multicells and transient supercells may yield a risk for large hail and severe gusts beginning mid afternoon through the early evening. ...North Carolina into the Northeast... At least scattered thunderstorms will develop amid weak vertical wind shear this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Pulse cellular and occasional multicells are the expected storm mode. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, which may support a few strong, potentially damaging gusts with some of the stronger storms. ...North Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of a cold front by afternoon. Similar to the Northeast, rich low-level moisture will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, fostering wet downburst/strong wind gust potential with pulse single cells and multicells. ...Sabine River Valley... Ongoing clusters of weak thunderstorms moving southward on the backside of the Eastern U.S. mid-level trough will likely continue southward through the Sabine River Valley today. Although the 12 UTC Lake Charles raob is characterized as only weakly unstable, additional heating will result in moderate destabilization by midday. A localized wind-damage risk may accompany the stronger outflow surges before this activity moves into the northwest Gulf. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN MONTANA...AND EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Montana and eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level ridge situated over the south-central High Plains northward through the northern Great Plains. A mid-level trough is over the East and a mid-level low and associated trough are over the eastern Pacific to the west of the Pacific Northwest. ...Portions of the central and northern Rockies/High Plains... Broad 40+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the central into the northern Rockies as an impulse embedded in the West Coast mid-level trough grazes the region. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across Montana with locally greater thunderstorm coverage forecast over western into north-central MT this afternoon and evening, and separately over portions of eastern Montana. Richer moisture is evident in morning surface analysis across eastern MT where lower 60s F surface dewpoints are present with mid 50s farther west near the I-15 corridor. Consequently, greater buoyancy is expected later this afternoon over eastern MT with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE possible with 750-1250 J/kg farther west. Given the deep boundary layer and corresponding steep lapse rates in both areas, severe gusts are possible with the more intense cells and clusters, especially if a linear cluster can evolve near the Rocky Mtn Front and push northeastward into the High Plains. Elsewhere, isolated instances of hail/wind may accompany the stronger thunderstorms from the eastern Great Basin northward into ID/WY. ...Eastern Colorado... Moist upslope flow during peak surface heating will result in thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s F beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile will contribute to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly elongated hodographs. Some of the stronger multicells and transient supercells may yield a risk for large hail and severe gusts beginning mid afternoon through the early evening. ...North Carolina into the Northeast... At least scattered thunderstorms will develop amid weak vertical wind shear this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Pulse cellular and occasional multicells are the expected storm mode. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, which may support a few strong, potentially damaging gusts with some of the stronger storms. ...North Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of a cold front by afternoon. Similar to the Northeast, rich low-level moisture will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, fostering wet downburst/strong wind gust potential with pulse single cells and multicells. ...Sabine River Valley... Ongoing clusters of weak thunderstorms moving southward on the backside of the Eastern U.S. mid-level trough will likely continue southward through the Sabine River Valley today. Although the 12 UTC Lake Charles raob is characterized as only weakly unstable, additional heating will result in moderate destabilization by midday. A localized wind-damage risk may accompany the stronger outflow surges before this activity moves into the northwest Gulf. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/19/2024 Read more