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WW 528 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 140255Z - 140900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Minnesota Far West-Central Wisconsin * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 955 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A small bowing complex of thunderstorms should move southeastward this evening and overnight, posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph. Occasionally stronger gusts up to 75 mph appear possible, along with isolated large hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Alexandria MN to 20 miles south southeast of Minneapolis MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 522...WW 523...WW 524...WW 525...WW 526...WW 527... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1608 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1608 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...Western Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 140556Z - 140700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and wind damage threat may continue for several more hours across parts of southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin. A new weather watch to the southeast of WW 528 will likely need to be considered. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Minneapolis shows a cluster of strong to severe storms over southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Most of the storms are multicells, although a supercell is ongoing just to the northwest of Minneapolis. These storms are located along an gradient of moisture and instability that is oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast in the vicinity of Minneapolis. The storms are likely being supported by a minor shortwave trough that is moving through the upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a maximum in low-level flow is analyzed just to the west of this cluster. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Minneapolis has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots with about 20 knots of speed shear from the surface to about 4 km AGL. This, combined with the moderate instability, should continue to support a severe threat over the next several hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45299197 45559277 45679338 45659381 45489399 45339400 45019376 44699321 44419267 44089202 43909172 43869138 43959104 44219080 44529072 44909111 45299197 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0530 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region on Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the central Plains as well as south-central/southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to persist across the southern CONUS on Monday, while upper troughing extends across central Canada. A belt of enhanced, broadly cyclonic upper flow will exist between these two areas, extending across much of the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs are expected to progress through this corridor, with the most prominent wave extending from southern Manitoba southward across the Dakotas early Monday. This shortwave is forecast to progress eastward/east-southeastward across the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and southern/eastern Ontario. Another shortwave trough, likely augmented by Sunday night's thunderstorms over the Mid MS Valley, is expected to extend from Lower MI into the Middle OH Valley early Monday night. This shortwave is then expected to continue eastward through the Upper OH Valley and Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic during the day. Lastly, there is some chance another shortwave trough progresses through the northern periphery of the Southwest upper ridging, emerging into the central Plains and continuing eastward in the Mid MS Valley. Guidance varies on the amplitude and speed of this shortwave, which limits forecast confidence on its potential evolution and impacts. The surface pattern will be convoluted by several areas of antecedent convection, particularly from the Upper Midwest into the Mid MS and OH Valleys where storm outflow appears most likely. General expectation is for warm front to extend eastward from a surface low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection along the MN/IA border vicinity into southern WI. This front will likely extend eastward across the northern portions of the OH Valley, but with a more stationary character. A cold front attendant to the Manitoba/Dakotas shortwave is expected push southward across the Dakotas and into NE and southeastward across the Upper Midwest. By 00Z this front will likely extend from a low over northwest Ontario southwestward to another low over north-central KS. ...Upper MS Valley into the Middle OH Valley and Lower MI... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the cold front across the Upper MS Valley early Monday morning. These early storms are expected to be elevated, but should trend towards becoming more surface based as they progress southeastward and the airmass destabilizes. The strength of the buoyancy within the downstream airmass will depend on the evolution of Sunday night's storms, with at least some potential for some cooler and drier conditions. However, consensus among the guidance is for low 70s dewpoints and strong buoyancy during the afternoon. These thermodynamic conditions, coupled with moderate vertical shear, would support strong to severe thunderstorms. All severe hazards would be possible within any more cellular storms, but a linear mode is expected to dominant, with some potential for the development of an organized MCS. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk across this region. ...Upper OH Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic... Afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are possible from the Upper OH Valley into the Northeast as the modest, convectively augmented shortwave trough interacts with the warm and moist airmass over the region. Shear will likely be modest, mitigating the potential for organized storms. However, moderate buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates will support to the potential for strong downbursts with the more robust storms. ...Central High Plains into the Central Plains... Some of the guidance, particularly the CAMs, has trended towards more storm development across the central High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. The modest shortwave trough progressing through the northern periphery of the upper ridge mentioned in the synopsis appears to be the impetus for these storms, providing the large-scale ascent needed for initiation. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow, with some cold-pool amalgamation and the development of an organized MCS possible. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and location of greatest severe potential precludes higher probabilities with this outlook. ...South-Central/Southeast AZ... Modest easterly mid-level flow is expected across the region, which will be located on the western periphery of the upper ridge. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated over the high terrain, with storms then moving westward off into lower elevations. A few strong gusts are possible as these storms move into the well-mixed airmass over the lower elevations. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more