Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible across several areas of the Continental U.S. this afternoon evening. An organized large hail threat may materialize over eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the eastern seaboard as an upper ridge prevails across the Southwest into the Plains and another mid-level trough remains in place along the West Coast today. Given adequate moisture and instability, scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms (some strong to locally severe) are expected along the periphery of both mid-level troughs and the upper ridge. ...North Carolina into the Northeast... At least scattered thunderstorms will develop amid weak vertical wind shear this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Pulse cellular and occasional multicells are the expected storm mode. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, which may support a few strong, potentially damaging gusts with some of the stronger storms. ...North Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of a cold front by afternoon. Similar to the Northeast, rich low-level moisture will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, fostering wet downburst/strong wind gust potential with pulse single cells and multicells. ...Portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley... 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize across portions of southern AR into LA and far western MS during the afternoon on the backside of the East Coast mid-level trough. Tropospheric unidirectional northwesterly flow may contribute to enough deep-layer speed shear to support multicells capable of producing wet downbursts and subsequent strong/damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern Colorado... Moist upslope flow during peak surface heating will result in thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s F beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile will contribute to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly elongated hodographs. Multicells and occasional supercells are expected, with large hail the main threat, though a couple of severe gusts are also possible. ...Portions of the central and Northern Rockies... Broad 40+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the central into the northern Rockies as an impulse embedded in the West Coast mid-level trough grazes the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deep boundary layer extending up to 500 mb. Scattered pulse-cellular and multicells should initiate over higher terrain areas during the afternoon and progress eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Given the deep boundary layer and corresponding steep lapse rates, severe gusts are the primary threat, though a couple instances of large hail cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible across several areas of the Continental U.S. this afternoon evening. An organized large hail threat may materialize over eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the eastern seaboard as an upper ridge prevails across the Southwest into the Plains and another mid-level trough remains in place along the West Coast today. Given adequate moisture and instability, scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms (some strong to locally severe) are expected along the periphery of both mid-level troughs and the upper ridge. ...North Carolina into the Northeast... At least scattered thunderstorms will develop amid weak vertical wind shear this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Pulse cellular and occasional multicells are the expected storm mode. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, which may support a few strong, potentially damaging gusts with some of the stronger storms. ...North Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of a cold front by afternoon. Similar to the Northeast, rich low-level moisture will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, fostering wet downburst/strong wind gust potential with pulse single cells and multicells. ...Portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley... 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize across portions of southern AR into LA and far western MS during the afternoon on the backside of the East Coast mid-level trough. Tropospheric unidirectional northwesterly flow may contribute to enough deep-layer speed shear to support multicells capable of producing wet downbursts and subsequent strong/damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern Colorado... Moist upslope flow during peak surface heating will result in thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s F beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile will contribute to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly elongated hodographs. Multicells and occasional supercells are expected, with large hail the main threat, though a couple of severe gusts are also possible. ...Portions of the central and Northern Rockies... Broad 40+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the central into the northern Rockies as an impulse embedded in the West Coast mid-level trough grazes the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deep boundary layer extending up to 500 mb. Scattered pulse-cellular and multicells should initiate over higher terrain areas during the afternoon and progress eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Given the deep boundary layer and corresponding steep lapse rates, severe gusts are the primary threat, though a couple instances of large hail cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible across several areas of the Continental U.S. this afternoon evening. An organized large hail threat may materialize over eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the eastern seaboard as an upper ridge prevails across the Southwest into the Plains and another mid-level trough remains in place along the West Coast today. Given adequate moisture and instability, scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms (some strong to locally severe) are expected along the periphery of both mid-level troughs and the upper ridge. ...North Carolina into the Northeast... At least scattered thunderstorms will develop amid weak vertical wind shear this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Pulse cellular and occasional multicells are the expected storm mode. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, which may support a few strong, potentially damaging gusts with some of the stronger storms. ...North Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of a cold front by afternoon. Similar to the Northeast, rich low-level moisture will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, fostering wet downburst/strong wind gust potential with pulse single cells and multicells. ...Portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley... 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize across portions of southern AR into LA and far western MS during the afternoon on the backside of the East Coast mid-level trough. Tropospheric unidirectional northwesterly flow may contribute to enough deep-layer speed shear to support multicells capable of producing wet downbursts and subsequent strong/damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern Colorado... Moist upslope flow during peak surface heating will result in thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s F beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile will contribute to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly elongated hodographs. Multicells and occasional supercells are expected, with large hail the main threat, though a couple of severe gusts are also possible. ...Portions of the central and Northern Rockies... Broad 40+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the central into the northern Rockies as an impulse embedded in the West Coast mid-level trough grazes the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deep boundary layer extending up to 500 mb. Scattered pulse-cellular and multicells should initiate over higher terrain areas during the afternoon and progress eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Given the deep boundary layer and corresponding steep lapse rates, severe gusts are the primary threat, though a couple instances of large hail cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/19/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located well east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands. This disturbance is forecast to interact
with a disturbance located to its east-northeast. If this system
becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is
possible, and a tropical depression could form in the next couple of
days while it initially moves slowly over the western portion of the
East Pacific. A faster west-northwestward motion into the Central
Pacific basin is likely by the latter portion of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is
forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest
over the next few days which could limit additional development.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form during the middle part
of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward before
it possibly merges with the disturbance currently located farther
west. Information on this system's development can also be found in
the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Drought advisories were lifted for much of Virginia after Tropical Storm Debby brought plenty of rain to the state. Charlottesville Daily Progress (Va.), Aug. 17, 2024 The drought warning advisory in Virginia has been expanded and includes 60 counties and cities, with 15 counties and cities no longer under a drought watch advisory, according to the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality. A drought warning advisory was in effect for the following regions: Big Sandy, Middle James, New River, Northern Piedmont, Northern Virginia, Roanoke River, Shenandoah and Upper James. A drought watch advisory was in effect for Eastern Shore, Middle James, Northern Coastal Plain and York-James. The drought watch advisory was lifted for Chowan and Southeast Virginia. WRIC-TV (Richmond, Va.), July 19, 2024

Thanks to ample rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby, the South Carolina Department of Resources downgraded 38 counties to normal status. Eight counties remained in incipient drought status. WIS 10 (Columbia, S.C.), Aug 14, 2024 The South Carolina Department of Natural Resources recognized counties in the Grand Strand and the Pee Dee River region as being in severe drought. Crops and livestock were affected by the dry weather. Streamflows were rapidly declining, and wildfires were occurring more frequently than usual. Early planted corn has died. Since June 1, the S.C. Forestry Commission responded to more than 200 wildfires that burned more than 1,200 acres. This is 77% higher than the 10-year average. The drastic shift from normal conditions to severe for the Grand Strand and the Pee Dee was unprecedented as June weather suddenly turned very dry and hot. Both the Pee Dee and Black River were nearing critically low levels WMBF-TV NBC (Myrtle Beach, S.C.), July 9, 2024

MD 1954 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1954 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637... Valid 190258Z - 190430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...An organized line of convection, though becoming increasingly elevated, will produce occasional wind damage in southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. A downstream watch is not anticipate tonight. DISCUSSION...Cold cloud tops are evident on IR satellite imagery in central Arkansas. Convection has maintained some intensity despite moving into outflow from earlier convection. The observed Little Rock 00Z sounding showed stable low-level conditions, but steep lapse rates aloft and ample elevated buoyancy. Farther south, when modifying the observed 00Z Shreveport sounding, MLCIN has been increasing with time. Given the organization of the line and the elevated buoyancy in the region, a few downdrafts may be able to overcome low-level inhibition and produce isolated wind damage tonight. Overall convective/observational trends suggest that a new watch into parts of northern Louisiana is not likely. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34189441 34339371 34629220 34549168 33359183 32349231 32279347 32899437 34189441 Read more

MD 1953 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1953 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana into portions of west-central/southwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637... Valid 190109Z - 190315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds are possible with a line of convection moving south-southeastward into portions of central Mississippi and northeast Louisiana. DISCUSSION...An line of convection has organized along outflow from earlier storms in central/southeast Arkansas. The 00Z observed sounding from Jackson, MS, showed 2000+ MLCAPE with minimal MLCIN and 34 kts effective shear. Though some diurnal cooling will occur, the overall organization of the cold pool should allow strong to severe storms to continue for another 2-3 hours. Damaging winds will likely be the main threat given the transition to a linear mode. It is possible this line of storms could approach the southern edge of WW 637 before 03Z. Depending on convective trends, this may warrant an extension in area and/or time of WW 637. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33239231 33359188 33599098 33699045 32548989 31948994 31779061 31809145 31859195 31979204 32139206 33239231 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 02:43:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 03:29:10 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 190240 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 Gilma continues to battle easterly shear this evening. Deep convection has been regularly pulsing near the center and then pulled off toward the western side of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 kt and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. Objective intensity estimates range from 30 to 38 kt. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, representing a blend of the various estimates. Strong-to-moderate deep vertical wind shear is forecast to persist for the next day or two. Global models vary when the shear will relax, but sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday Gilma should be in a more conducive environment and gradually strengthen. By the end of the forecast period, the storm is expected to move into a drier airmass with increasing upper-level winds, which should induce gradual weakening. The latest intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, slightly higher than the various consensus aids. Gilma is moving westward along the south side of a mid-level ridge at 280/11 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion should continue for the next couple of days. By Wednesday, Gilma is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward when a trough off of the west coast of the United States erodes the ridge. There is quite a bit of model spread during this period, with the GFS showing a slower forward speed and a more poleward turn compared to some of the regional models which stay farther to the south and move faster. The official track forecast lies near the simple consensus aids and is slightly south of the previous track through 60 h and a little to the north afterwards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 14.8N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 15.2N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 15.5N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.8N 119.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.3N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 17.1N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 18.3N 125.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 19.1N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 190240 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 48 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 115W 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 12(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) 7(47) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 190240 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 113.5W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 113.5W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.2N 115.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 117.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 119.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.3N 120.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.1N 122.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.3N 125.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.1N 127.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 190240 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...GILMA HEADING WESTWARD AND HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 113.5W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 113.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Gilma is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...GILMA HEADING WESTWARD AND HOLDING STEADY... As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Aug 18 the center of Gilma was located near 14.8, -113.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S RKR TO 45 SE FSM TO 25 NNE RUE TO 65 NE PBF TO 40 N GLH TO 20 ESE GWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059- 069-079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-149- 190240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT YELL LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-190240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S RKR TO 45 SE FSM TO 25 NNE RUE TO 65 NE PBF TO 40 N GLH TO 20 ESE GWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059- 069-079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-149- 190240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT YELL LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-190240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S RKR TO 45 SE FSM TO 25 NNE RUE TO 65 NE PBF TO 40 N GLH TO 20 ESE GWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059- 069-079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-149- 190240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT YELL LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-190240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S RKR TO 45 SE FSM TO 25 NNE RUE TO 65 NE PBF TO 40 N GLH TO 20 ESE GWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059- 069-079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-149- 190240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT YELL LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-190240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S RKR TO 45 SE FSM TO 25 NNE RUE TO 65 NE PBF TO 40 N GLH TO 20 ESE GWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059- 069-079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-149- 190240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT YELL LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-190240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S RKR TO 45 SE FSM TO 25 NNE RUE TO 65 NE PBF TO 40 N GLH TO 20 ESE GWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059- 069-079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-149- 190240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT YELL LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-190240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more