Aggregator

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC073-105-181-189-245-182240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA ELBERT LINCOLN MCDUFFIE RICHMOND NCC001-003-007-025-033-035-037-045-051-057-059-063-065-067-069- 071-077-081-083-085-093-097-101-105-109-119-123-125-127-131-135- 145-151-153-157-159-163-165-167-169-179-181-183-185-191-195-197- 182240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM CLEVELAND CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE IREDELL JOHNSTON LEE LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 634 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA WV CW 181800Z - 190200Z
CWZ000-190200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon across the watch area. The more intense storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east of Charlottesville VA to 40 miles east northeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

WW 635 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC VA CW 181925Z - 190200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Georgia Central North Carolina Central South Carolina Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forming from central Virginia into the western Carolinas. These storms will grow in number through the afternoon, with several strong to severe storms expected. Damaging winds are the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast of Richmond VA to 40 miles west of Columbia SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182352
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Gilma located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
A low pressure system located well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is forecast to interact with the disturbance located to
its east-northeast. If this system becomes the dominant disturbance,
some gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression
could form in the next couple of days while it initially moves
slowly over the western portion of the East Pacific. A faster
west-northwestward motion into the Central Pacific basin is likely
by the latter portion of the week. Information on this system's
development can also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for
the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is
forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest
over the next few days which could limit additional development.
Regardless, a tropical depression could still form during the middle
part of the week while the system moves generally west-northwestward
before it possibly merges with the disturbance currently located
further west. Information on this system's development can also be
found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward into the central portion of the East Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

MD 1950 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1950 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southeast Idaho into southwest Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182306Z - 190130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and severe hail are possible as thunderstorms track northeastward into this evening. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving across portions of southeast ID and southwest MT this afternoon -- along the eastern periphery of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. These storms are along the eastern periphery of a belt of 30-40 kt midlevel southwesterly flow, which is contributing to favorable deep-layer shear for some convective organization -- given sufficient (albeit weak) surface-based instability and steep deep-layer lapse rates. Initial cellular activity will pose a risk of isolated severe hail and locally severe downbursts. With time, some localized upscale growth is expected as storms track northeastward into this evening, with an increasing risk of embedded severe wind gusts (60-70 mph). Overall, the severe risk is expected to be too localized for a watch consideration. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI... LAT...LON 44931269 44501262 43661214 42891195 42211237 42111312 42211425 42511456 43321445 43701412 44201392 45131410 45471445 46041435 47621339 47821294 47851252 47631197 47181155 46521160 45711242 44931269 Read more

MD 1951 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1951 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Northwest Arkansas into east-central Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637... Valid 182313Z - 190115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated large hail will remain possible into the early evening. Storms in northwest and south-central Arkansas will pose the greatest risk of these hazards. DISCUSSION...Scattered storm development in central Arkansas has produced a cold pool that is pushing south and east. Storms, particularly along the southern edge where it is more unstable, continue to develop. Recently, Pine Bluff gusted to 44 kts as storms moved through. this activity will continue to pose a risk for damaging winds and isolated large hail as it progresses south/southeast. In Northwest Arkansas, additional storms are beginning to develop as a weakening MCV/cold pool moves into the strongly buoyant airmass. Wind gusts of 44-56 kts have already been observed with this activity. Isolated large hail may also occur within initially discrete updrafts. The airmass in west-central Arkansas has thus far not been affected by convection and this activity may tend to propagate into this area. ..Wendt.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 35979528 36519477 36719404 36669352 35249180 35219169 34069057 33219048 32759136 32759200 32889231 33189310 35979528 Read more

MD 1949 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636... FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1949 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636... Valid 182219Z - 190015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636 continues. SUMMARY...Two clusters of storms will likely continue southward late this afternoon. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will remain possible. There is some potential for a downstream watch depending on convective trends. DISCUSSION...The most organized convection in WW 636 is moving southward along the GA/AL border. These storms have so far remained discrete and produced 1-1.75 inch hail and wind gusts of 36-50 kts recently. Farther west, in west-central Alabama, another cluster of storms is also moving south. These storms are being supported by lift within the base of a mid-level trough. Effective shear is 30-50 kts (stronger to the west) and will continue to support organized storms. Low-level shear, however, is weaker and temperature-dewpoint spreads are near 30 F which is leading to outflow moving out ahead of convection (per KMXX radar imagery). There is some potential for this activity to persist south of WW 636 into portions of southern Alabama and southwest Georgia. Damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will remain possible. An additional watch may need to be considered depending on convective trends over the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31538384 31388464 31368614 31668804 32168818 33018788 33148714 33088552 32868477 31978394 31538384 Read more

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MEI TO 15 S TCL TO 40 NNW MGM TO 15 ENE AUO TO 15 ENE CSG TO 35 ENE CSG TO 50 NE MCN TO 30 SSE AGS. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-011-047-051-063-065-081-085-087-091-101-105-109-113- 119-190040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK DALLAS ELMORE GREENE HALE LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE RUSSELL SUMTER GAC021-023-053-079-081-091-093-153-163-167-175-193-197-215-225- 235-249-259-261-269-289-303-307-315-319-190040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BLECKLEY CHATTAHOOCHEE CRAWFORD CRISP DODGE DOOLY HOUSTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAURENS MACON Read more

WW 636 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 181940Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 636 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Alabama Central Georgia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly developing across north-central Alabama/Georgia in a moist and moderately unstable air mass. These storms will progress southeastward through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Tuscaloosa AL to 65 miles southeast of Athens GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951 ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-007-011-013-017-019-025-029-033-039-041-043-045-047- 051-053-059-069-071-079-083-085-087-095-097-103-105-107-109-113- 115-117-119-125-127-131-143-149-190040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BENTON BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON JOHNSON LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL LAC035-065-067-083-123-190040- Read more

WW 637 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 182030Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 637 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Western Mississippi * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify through the late afternoon across central Arkansas and track southeastward across the watch area. a few intense storms capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Fort Smith AR to 60 miles southeast of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635...WW 636... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0638 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0638 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 638 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA CW 182310Z - 190600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 710 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms capable of wind damage and possibly some hail will continue south-southeastward across the region this evening within a hot/moist environment. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Pensacola FL to 30 miles east southeast of Vidalia GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635...WW 636...WW 637... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Guyer Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 18 22:00:17 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more