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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

MD 1600 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522... FOR NORTHERN TO EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0541 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas affected...Northern to eastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522... Valid 132241Z - 140045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail remains the primary severe threat for the short-term across north-central Montana, but a transition into a more organized cluster/linear segment may occur within the next 1-2 hours. This would support an increasing wind threat downstream across eastern Montana. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a leading supercell across north-central MT continues to show strong deviant motion to the south/southeast and has a history of producing severe hail (1.0 to 1.75 inch) per recent storm reports. For the next 30-60 minutes, this cell should continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail given a very favorable supercell environment. Radar and satellite trends over the past 30 minutes show increasing cumulus congestus and new cell development in the vicinity of the supercell - likely a result of strengthening ascent in close proximity to the supercell and its robust pressure perturbation responsible for the strong deviant motion. As new cells develop, cold pools will amalgamate leading to gradual upscale growth, likely within the next 1-2 hours. Evolution into an organized line appears probable given strong (nearly 50 knots) deep-layer wind shear nearly parallel to the diffuse frontal boundary. Consequently, the threat for severe wind should increase in the coming hours downstream. Based on the current position of the frontal boundary, the severe threat should mostly remain in WW 522, but additional watch issuance may be needed across southeast MT in the coming hours if it becomes apparent convection will maintain a more southeasterly track. ..Moore.. 07/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47270869 47990950 48350973 48670981 48950966 48990944 48750863 48570771 48080476 47610416 47180401 46310404 46130419 46000443 45910468 45870500 45880530 46010583 46270675 46600754 47270869 Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0526 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0525 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 525 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 525 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-087-140140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON ROSEBUD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0525 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 525 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 525 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-087-140140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON ROSEBUD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-021-027-029-035-057-061-071-077-087-107-111-113- 119-125-159-167-140140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI CASS CLAY CLEARWATER CROW WING HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE WADENA WILKIN NDC017-073-077-081-097-140140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT TRAILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0523 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 523 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW RST TO 30 WNW LSE TO 25 ENE LSE TO 10 ENE VOK TO 35 SSE CWA TO 55 NE GRB. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 523 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC039-045-055-099-109-169-140140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED WINONA WIC001-009-015-021-025-027-039-047-049-055-057-063-077-079-081- 087-089-103-111-117-123-131-133-135-137-139-140140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GREEN LAKE IOWA JEFFERSON JUNEAU LA CROSSE MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE MONROE OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE RICHLAND SAUK SHEBOYGAN VERNON WASHINGTON WAUKESHA WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO Read more

MD 1600 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522... FOR NORTHERN TO EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0541 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas affected...Northern to eastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522... Valid 132241Z - 140045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail remains the primary severe threat for the short-term across north-central Montana, but a transition into a more organized cluster/linear segment may occur within the next 1-2 hours. This would support an increasing wind threat downstream across eastern Montana. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a leading supercell across north-central MT continues to show strong deviant motion to the south/southeast and has a history of producing severe hail (1.0 to 1.75 inch) per recent storm reports. For the next 30-60 minutes, this cell should continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail given a very favorable supercell environment. Radar and satellite trends over the past 30 minutes show increasing cumulus congestus and new cell development in the vicinity of the supercell - likely a result of strengthening ascent in close proximity to the supercell and its robust pressure perturbation responsible for the strong deviant motion. As new cells develop, cold pools will amalgamate leading to gradual upscale growth, likely within the next 1-2 hours. Evolution into an organized line appears probable given strong (nearly 50 knots) deep-layer wind shear nearly parallel to the diffuse frontal boundary. Consequently, the threat for severe wind should increase in the coming hours downstream. Based on the current position of the frontal boundary, the severe threat should mostly remain in WW 522, but additional watch issuance may be needed across southeast MT in the coming hours if it becomes apparent convection will maintain a more southeasterly track. ..Moore.. 07/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47270869 47990950 48350973 48670981 48950966 48990944 48750863 48570771 48080476 47610416 47180401 46310404 46130419 46000443 45910468 45870500 45880530 46010583 46270675 46600754 47270869 Read more

MD 1599 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523... FOR SOUTHWEST WI...SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1599 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas affected...Southwest WI...southeast MN...northeast IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523... Valid 132214Z - 132345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523 continues. SUMMARY...An arc of strong to severe thunderstorms within and just west of WW 523 across southwest Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota may spread to the south of WW 523 across parts of northeast Iowa and far southern Wisconsin. Monitoring for the possibility of an additional severe thunderstorm watch farther south. DISCUSSION...Primary near-term severe potential has been increasingly focused along the trailing outflow behind a small linear cluster in southwest WI that has produced strong measured gusts and at least one report of tree damage thus far. The discrete supercells along the outflow boundary have held nearly stationary with a slow, east-southeastward drift. A tornado or two, large hail to around 2 inches in diameter, and localized damaging winds will remain the primary near-term threats. With an extremely unstable airmass prevalent over southwest MN and northwest IA, it is plausible that a similar upscale growth evolution with small-scale bowing structures will occur towards the MS Valley in northeast IA and far southern WI. Should this occur, an additional severe thunderstorm watch may be needed south of WW 423. ..Grams.. 07/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 44229354 44249231 44119165 44089119 44319062 44489018 44218938 43748922 43108960 42719052 42759223 43179325 43769372 43999375 44229354 Read more

WW 0525 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0525 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 525 SEVERE TSTM MT 132330Z - 140600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 525 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop southeastward this evening while posing a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). This activity should grow into a small bowing cluster over the next few hours, with a greater threat for severe winds potentially up to 65-75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Miles City MT to 40 miles south southeast of Baker MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 522...WW 523...WW 524... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more