Aggregator

WW 0523 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 523 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE RST TO 30 NE LNR TO 30 SE OSH. WW 523 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 140300Z. ..GRAMS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 523 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC025-049-079-089-133-140300- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANE IOWA MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE WAUKESHA LMZ643-644-645-669-671-673-140300- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE Read more

WW 523 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LM 132035Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 523 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Minnesota Central Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to intensify and track southeastward across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. The strongest storms will pose a risk of locally damaging winds and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of La Crosse WI to 25 miles northeast of Oshkosh WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 522... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1601 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MN AND FAR SOUTHEAST ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1601 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas affected...North-central MN and far southeast ND Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524... Valid 140016Z - 140145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524 continues. SUMMARY...A brief tornado, locally damaging winds, and isolated severe hail will remain the primary threats through about dusk. An increasing risk for damaging winds may occur later this evening towards parts of west-central to north-central Minnesota. DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of sustained convection are ongoing, the more prominent of which are near the international border in the Lake of the Woods area, and separately along the surface front/trough over far southeast ND into northwest MN. This latter convection has been holding nearly stationary, which will allow for a progressively deeper cold pool to form across northwest MN. Recent HRRR runs and afternoon guidance remain insistent on upscale growth occurring to the east-southeast into portions of central MN. This appears plausible given the presence of a substantial MLCAPE gradient lying to the southeast of these ongoing storms. ..Grams.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 47279676 47449618 47809565 48809536 49109490 49089416 48799332 48689328 46859341 46059391 45849461 45909594 46219691 46609713 47279676 Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE FAR TO 20 NNE BJI TO 40 SE RRT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601. ..GRAMS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-021-027-029-035-057-061-071-077-087-107-111-159- 167-140240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI CASS CLAY CLEARWATER CROW WING HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL WADENA WILKIN NDC017-073-077-081-140240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT Read more

WW 0523 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 523 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E RST TO 25 N LNR TO 30 SSW OSH TO 15 SSW GRB. ..GRAMS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 523 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC045-055-140240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FILLMORE HOUSTON WIC015-025-027-039-049-055-079-089-103-117-123-131-133-140240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALUMET DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC IOWA JEFFERSON MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RICHLAND SHEBOYGAN VERNON WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ643-644-645-669-671-673-140240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-017-019-037-043-055-061-065-067-089-131-191-140240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BREMER BUCHANAN CHICKASAW CLAYTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD HOWARD MITCHELL WINNESHIEK WIC023-043-140240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0522 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE LWT TO 25 ESE SDY. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-033-055-069-079-109-140240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PRAIRIE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0522 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE LWT TO 25 ESE SDY. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-033-055-069-079-109-140240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PRAIRIE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0522 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE LWT TO 25 ESE SDY. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-033-055-069-079-109-140240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PRAIRIE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0522 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE LWT TO 25 ESE SDY. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-033-055-069-079-109-140240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PRAIRIE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0522 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE LWT TO 25 ESE SDY. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-033-055-069-079-109-140240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PRAIRIE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0522 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE LWT TO 25 ESE SDY. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-033-055-069-079-109-140240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PRAIRIE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 522 SEVERE TSTM MT 132005Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 522 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Montana * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to form over north-central and northeast Montana this afternoon and track east-southeastward across the watch area. Very large hail and damaging winds are possible with the stronger cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south of Havre MT to 10 miles south southeast of Sidney MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more