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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 14:35:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 15:29:14 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 181433 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 The low pressure system well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has now developed a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection. These criteria indicate a new tropical depression has formed, the seventh one of the 2024 East Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a Dvorak 2.0 classification from TAFB. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is confining most of the thunderstorm activity to the western half of the circulation, and since the shear is expected to persist through tonight, only a little strengthening seems likely in the short-term. The shear should lessen beginning early Monday, and the more favorable upper-level wind environment combined with warm waters and a relatively moist atmosphere should allow for gradual strengthening throughout much of the week. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the HCCA guidance. The initial motion is uncertain since the system has just formed, but the best estimate is 290/11 kt. A high pressure ridge situated to the system’s north should cause the cyclone to move westward to west-northwestward at about the same speed during the next few days. Later in the week, the models show the ridge weakening as a trough amplifies off the west coast of the U.S., which could cause the system to slow down. The models are in fair agreement with the exception of the GFS, which shows a much slower motion likely due to the interaction with a disturbance to its west. At this point, that model seems unrealistic so it is being discounted for now. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the ECMWF and HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.0N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 15.4N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 15.8N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 16.0N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 16.2N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 16.5N 121.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 17.1N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 17.9N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 181433 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 17(17) 14(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 1(21) X(21) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Aug 18 the center of Seven-E was located near 14.6, -110.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 334 WTPZ32 KNHC 181432 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 110.7W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 110.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. The depression is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system could become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 181432 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 110.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 110.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 112.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.4N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.8N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 118.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.2N 120.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 121.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.1N 124.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 126.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

MD 1941 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 633... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NE...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1941 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southeast NE...North-Central/Northeast KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633... Valid 181251Z - 181445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and strong gusts continues across central Nebraska. This threat may continue into southeast Nebraska and north-central/northeast Kansas and downstream watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Despite becoming displaced further east of the primary low-level jet axis, the cluster (which now consists of two primary supercells) across central NE has persisted and perhaps even strengthened. This likely results from a combination of mature storm organization, increasing large-scale ascent, and continued mid-level warm-air advection. Current storm motion of the two supercells is southeasterly at 30 to 35 kt, which brings them to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633 at around 1430Z. However, there is some chance these storms begin progressing faster, as the system becoming increasingly linear. This cluster is expected to continue southeastward along the northern gradient of the corridor of buoyancy extending from central KS into western SD. Low-level stability may persist ahead of this cluster for at least the next several hours, but the trends over the past hour suggest this cluster is likely mature enough to maintain its strength. As such, large hail and strong gusts remain possible. Given the persisting low-level stability, the longevity is uncertain, but trends suggest a downstream watch may be needed into southeast NE and adjacent north-central/northeast KS. ..Mosier/Smith.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 39559851 41260017 42360019 42649952 42519850 41229650 39669621 39559851 Read more

WW 0633 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE LBF TO 15 E BUB TO 20 WSW OFK TO 5 ENE OFK. ..BENTLEY..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-011-041-077-093-115-121-125-139-141-143-163-175-183- 181440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOONE CUSTER GREELEY HOWARD LOUP MERRICK NANCE PIERCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0633 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE LBF TO 15 E BUB TO 20 WSW OFK TO 5 ENE OFK. ..BENTLEY..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-011-041-077-093-115-121-125-139-141-143-163-175-183- 181440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOONE CUSTER GREELEY HOWARD LOUP MERRICK NANCE PIERCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0633 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE LBF TO 15 E BUB TO 20 WSW OFK TO 5 ENE OFK. ..BENTLEY..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-011-041-077-093-115-121-125-139-141-143-163-175-183- 181440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOONE CUSTER GREELEY HOWARD LOUP MERRICK NANCE PIERCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more