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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging gusts are possible over parts of the northern Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Hail will also be possible over North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will expand further across the Great Basin and Four Corners states on Friday, with gradually increasing midlevel westerlies across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a weak positive-tile upper trough will lift out of the lower Great Lakes and into southern Quebec, with rising heights over New England. Overnight, the influence of a broad trough across the Canadian prairies may result in strengthening flow and subtle height falls over MT into Saturday morning. At the surface, weak high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward along the MS Valley and into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and over much of the interior West beneath the upper ridge. A surface trough will deepen over the northern and central High Plains coincident with peak heating, with modest westerly winds over MT into the western Dakotas as boundary-layer mixing occurs. ...Northern High Plains... Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface trough, with scattered convection likely to form after 21Z over far eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas and NE. Models differ with coverage through the evening, but prominent outflows should allow for a few clusters of storms to persist across the Dakotas and NE, and perhaps into northwest MN late, supported by a weak northwest flow aloft/southerly 850 mb flow regime. Cells that persist into the moister air mass east of the deeply mixed air mass may produce brief hail with the stronger cores. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging gusts are possible over parts of the northern Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Hail will also be possible over North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will expand further across the Great Basin and Four Corners states on Friday, with gradually increasing midlevel westerlies across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a weak positive-tile upper trough will lift out of the lower Great Lakes and into southern Quebec, with rising heights over New England. Overnight, the influence of a broad trough across the Canadian prairies may result in strengthening flow and subtle height falls over MT into Saturday morning. At the surface, weak high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward along the MS Valley and into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and over much of the interior West beneath the upper ridge. A surface trough will deepen over the northern and central High Plains coincident with peak heating, with modest westerly winds over MT into the western Dakotas as boundary-layer mixing occurs. ...Northern High Plains... Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface trough, with scattered convection likely to form after 21Z over far eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas and NE. Models differ with coverage through the evening, but prominent outflows should allow for a few clusters of storms to persist across the Dakotas and NE, and perhaps into northwest MN late, supported by a weak northwest flow aloft/southerly 850 mb flow regime. Cells that persist into the moister air mass east of the deeply mixed air mass may produce brief hail with the stronger cores. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging gusts are possible over parts of the northern Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Hail will also be possible over North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will expand further across the Great Basin and Four Corners states on Friday, with gradually increasing midlevel westerlies across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a weak positive-tile upper trough will lift out of the lower Great Lakes and into southern Quebec, with rising heights over New England. Overnight, the influence of a broad trough across the Canadian prairies may result in strengthening flow and subtle height falls over MT into Saturday morning. At the surface, weak high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward along the MS Valley and into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and over much of the interior West beneath the upper ridge. A surface trough will deepen over the northern and central High Plains coincident with peak heating, with modest westerly winds over MT into the western Dakotas as boundary-layer mixing occurs. ...Northern High Plains... Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface trough, with scattered convection likely to form after 21Z over far eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas and NE. Models differ with coverage through the evening, but prominent outflows should allow for a few clusters of storms to persist across the Dakotas and NE, and perhaps into northwest MN late, supported by a weak northwest flow aloft/southerly 850 mb flow regime. Cells that persist into the moister air mass east of the deeply mixed air mass may produce brief hail with the stronger cores. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging gusts are possible over parts of the northern Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Hail will also be possible over North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will expand further across the Great Basin and Four Corners states on Friday, with gradually increasing midlevel westerlies across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a weak positive-tile upper trough will lift out of the lower Great Lakes and into southern Quebec, with rising heights over New England. Overnight, the influence of a broad trough across the Canadian prairies may result in strengthening flow and subtle height falls over MT into Saturday morning. At the surface, weak high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward along the MS Valley and into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and over much of the interior West beneath the upper ridge. A surface trough will deepen over the northern and central High Plains coincident with peak heating, with modest westerly winds over MT into the western Dakotas as boundary-layer mixing occurs. ...Northern High Plains... Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface trough, with scattered convection likely to form after 21Z over far eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas and NE. Models differ with coverage through the evening, but prominent outflows should allow for a few clusters of storms to persist across the Dakotas and NE, and perhaps into northwest MN late, supported by a weak northwest flow aloft/southerly 850 mb flow regime. Cells that persist into the moister air mass east of the deeply mixed air mass may produce brief hail with the stronger cores. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111706
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located near Central America is forecast to move
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical East Pacific during
the next week. Conditions could become favorable for some slow
development of the wave next week as it approaches the central
portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of Northwestern Arizona, where it appears sufficient moisture over the higher terrain, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, could result in dry thunder occurrence over locally receptive fuels. Given these inverted-V profiles, gusty thunderstorm winds can be expected with any outflow that develops. However, the threat appears to be too localized to introduce a highlight area at this time. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged and on-track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will remain anchored over the Great Basin today, resulting in a continuation of very hot and dry conditions over much of the West. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, with a modest increase in low/midlevel flow expected from northern parts of the Great Basin into the interior Northwest. ...Snake River Plain of ID and vicinity... As flow gradually increases within a persistently hot and dry environment, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across parts of the Snake River Plain and vicinity this afternoon into the early evening. Sustained winds are forecast to increase into the 15-20 mph range (with higher gusts), as RH potentially drops to near or below 10 percent. ...Northeast CA into northwest NV... A modest increase in low-level flow is also expected along the northwest periphery of the ridge, from parts of northeast CA into northwest NV. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) combined with hot and dry conditions (with RH falling below 10 percent) will result in elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of Northwestern Arizona, where it appears sufficient moisture over the higher terrain, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, could result in dry thunder occurrence over locally receptive fuels. Given these inverted-V profiles, gusty thunderstorm winds can be expected with any outflow that develops. However, the threat appears to be too localized to introduce a highlight area at this time. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged and on-track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will remain anchored over the Great Basin today, resulting in a continuation of very hot and dry conditions over much of the West. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, with a modest increase in low/midlevel flow expected from northern parts of the Great Basin into the interior Northwest. ...Snake River Plain of ID and vicinity... As flow gradually increases within a persistently hot and dry environment, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across parts of the Snake River Plain and vicinity this afternoon into the early evening. Sustained winds are forecast to increase into the 15-20 mph range (with higher gusts), as RH potentially drops to near or below 10 percent. ...Northeast CA into northwest NV... A modest increase in low-level flow is also expected along the northwest periphery of the ridge, from parts of northeast CA into northwest NV. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) combined with hot and dry conditions (with RH falling below 10 percent) will result in elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of Northwestern Arizona, where it appears sufficient moisture over the higher terrain, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, could result in dry thunder occurrence over locally receptive fuels. Given these inverted-V profiles, gusty thunderstorm winds can be expected with any outflow that develops. However, the threat appears to be too localized to introduce a highlight area at this time. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged and on-track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will remain anchored over the Great Basin today, resulting in a continuation of very hot and dry conditions over much of the West. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, with a modest increase in low/midlevel flow expected from northern parts of the Great Basin into the interior Northwest. ...Snake River Plain of ID and vicinity... As flow gradually increases within a persistently hot and dry environment, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across parts of the Snake River Plain and vicinity this afternoon into the early evening. Sustained winds are forecast to increase into the 15-20 mph range (with higher gusts), as RH potentially drops to near or below 10 percent. ...Northeast CA into northwest NV... A modest increase in low-level flow is also expected along the northwest periphery of the ridge, from parts of northeast CA into northwest NV. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) combined with hot and dry conditions (with RH falling below 10 percent) will result in elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of Northwestern Arizona, where it appears sufficient moisture over the higher terrain, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, could result in dry thunder occurrence over locally receptive fuels. Given these inverted-V profiles, gusty thunderstorm winds can be expected with any outflow that develops. However, the threat appears to be too localized to introduce a highlight area at this time. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged and on-track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will remain anchored over the Great Basin today, resulting in a continuation of very hot and dry conditions over much of the West. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, with a modest increase in low/midlevel flow expected from northern parts of the Great Basin into the interior Northwest. ...Snake River Plain of ID and vicinity... As flow gradually increases within a persistently hot and dry environment, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across parts of the Snake River Plain and vicinity this afternoon into the early evening. Sustained winds are forecast to increase into the 15-20 mph range (with higher gusts), as RH potentially drops to near or below 10 percent. ...Northeast CA into northwest NV... A modest increase in low-level flow is also expected along the northwest periphery of the ridge, from parts of northeast CA into northwest NV. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) combined with hot and dry conditions (with RH falling below 10 percent) will result in elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of Northwestern Arizona, where it appears sufficient moisture over the higher terrain, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, could result in dry thunder occurrence over locally receptive fuels. Given these inverted-V profiles, gusty thunderstorm winds can be expected with any outflow that develops. However, the threat appears to be too localized to introduce a highlight area at this time. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged and on-track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will remain anchored over the Great Basin today, resulting in a continuation of very hot and dry conditions over much of the West. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, with a modest increase in low/midlevel flow expected from northern parts of the Great Basin into the interior Northwest. ...Snake River Plain of ID and vicinity... As flow gradually increases within a persistently hot and dry environment, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across parts of the Snake River Plain and vicinity this afternoon into the early evening. Sustained winds are forecast to increase into the 15-20 mph range (with higher gusts), as RH potentially drops to near or below 10 percent. ...Northeast CA into northwest NV... A modest increase in low-level flow is also expected along the northwest periphery of the ridge, from parts of northeast CA into northwest NV. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) combined with hot and dry conditions (with RH falling below 10 percent) will result in elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of Northwestern Arizona, where it appears sufficient moisture over the higher terrain, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, could result in dry thunder occurrence over locally receptive fuels. Given these inverted-V profiles, gusty thunderstorm winds can be expected with any outflow that develops. However, the threat appears to be too localized to introduce a highlight area at this time. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged and on-track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will remain anchored over the Great Basin today, resulting in a continuation of very hot and dry conditions over much of the West. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, with a modest increase in low/midlevel flow expected from northern parts of the Great Basin into the interior Northwest. ...Snake River Plain of ID and vicinity... As flow gradually increases within a persistently hot and dry environment, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across parts of the Snake River Plain and vicinity this afternoon into the early evening. Sustained winds are forecast to increase into the 15-20 mph range (with higher gusts), as RH potentially drops to near or below 10 percent. ...Northeast CA into northwest NV... A modest increase in low-level flow is also expected along the northwest periphery of the ridge, from parts of northeast CA into northwest NV. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) combined with hot and dry conditions (with RH falling below 10 percent) will result in elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of Northwestern Arizona, where it appears sufficient moisture over the higher terrain, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, could result in dry thunder occurrence over locally receptive fuels. Given these inverted-V profiles, gusty thunderstorm winds can be expected with any outflow that develops. However, the threat appears to be too localized to introduce a highlight area at this time. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged and on-track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will remain anchored over the Great Basin today, resulting in a continuation of very hot and dry conditions over much of the West. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move along the western and northern periphery of the ridge, with a modest increase in low/midlevel flow expected from northern parts of the Great Basin into the interior Northwest. ...Snake River Plain of ID and vicinity... As flow gradually increases within a persistently hot and dry environment, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across parts of the Snake River Plain and vicinity this afternoon into the early evening. Sustained winds are forecast to increase into the 15-20 mph range (with higher gusts), as RH potentially drops to near or below 10 percent. ...Northeast CA into northwest NV... A modest increase in low-level flow is also expected along the northwest periphery of the ridge, from parts of northeast CA into northwest NV. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) combined with hot and dry conditions (with RH falling below 10 percent) will result in elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible over parts of southern Arizona from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Arizona... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, and smaller mountain ranges to the south. That will occur as strong insolation at those higher elevations preferentially removes MLCINH, in the presence of generally greater low-level moisture than previous days. Some strengthening of flow aloft is expected over this region on the southeast periphery of the upper anticyclone. This will support convective motion off the Rim (and small mountain ranges to its south), into strongly heated/deeply mixed boundary layers of the desert floor. Isolated strong-severe gusts are possible from the relatively early, more-discrete activity, and swaths of strong-severe gusts are possible as convection moves southwestward toward the international border. ...Northern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to form near the lee trough, where both relatively maximized convergence and strong surface heating should contribute to enough lift for convective initiation. The main concern should be damaging to severe gusts, given the deeply mixed subcloud layer. Isolated severe hail also may occur, amidst enough deep-layer shear for some organized thunderstorms (effective-shear magnitudes of 30-40 kt). Lack of greater moisture and buoyancy will be a limiting factor for coverage and intensity of convection, which should diminish rapidly after sunset. ...Southeast Kansas/Southern Missouri... A few severe storms could develop today to the east-northeast of a surface wave near the Oklahoma/Kansas border in vicinity of front that extends into Missouri, which may be somewhat effectively augmented by lingering early day convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will exist within a moist environment, with MLCAPE likely to reach 2500-3000 J/kg. A considerable vertical veering of winds will exist through the lower/middle troposphere, with around 30 kt effective shear. Instances of severe hail and/or wind gusts could occur. ...Southern Maine... Clouds have lingered much of the morning with rather weak lapse rates noted in the 12z KGYX/Gray Maine observed sounding, but clearing is occurring from the west and a narrow zone of modest destabilization should occur this afternoon, within a very moist environment (lower/middle 70s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a cold front. Pending sufficient destabilization, a locally severe storm or two could occur, potentially with an absence of lightning, in the presence of long/semi-straight hodographs (highlighted by 45-50 kt winds 3-6 km AGL). ...Central/south-central portions of Illinois and Indiana... Ample low-level CAPE (100+ J/kg 0-km AGL) near the southward-shifting boundary could lead to some potential for funnels or perhaps even a brief non-supercell tornado this afternoon. Some of the storms could otherwise pose a risk for gusty winds, but the overall potential for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible over parts of southern Arizona from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Arizona... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, and smaller mountain ranges to the south. That will occur as strong insolation at those higher elevations preferentially removes MLCINH, in the presence of generally greater low-level moisture than previous days. Some strengthening of flow aloft is expected over this region on the southeast periphery of the upper anticyclone. This will support convective motion off the Rim (and small mountain ranges to its south), into strongly heated/deeply mixed boundary layers of the desert floor. Isolated strong-severe gusts are possible from the relatively early, more-discrete activity, and swaths of strong-severe gusts are possible as convection moves southwestward toward the international border. ...Northern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to form near the lee trough, where both relatively maximized convergence and strong surface heating should contribute to enough lift for convective initiation. The main concern should be damaging to severe gusts, given the deeply mixed subcloud layer. Isolated severe hail also may occur, amidst enough deep-layer shear for some organized thunderstorms (effective-shear magnitudes of 30-40 kt). Lack of greater moisture and buoyancy will be a limiting factor for coverage and intensity of convection, which should diminish rapidly after sunset. ...Southeast Kansas/Southern Missouri... A few severe storms could develop today to the east-northeast of a surface wave near the Oklahoma/Kansas border in vicinity of front that extends into Missouri, which may be somewhat effectively augmented by lingering early day convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will exist within a moist environment, with MLCAPE likely to reach 2500-3000 J/kg. A considerable vertical veering of winds will exist through the lower/middle troposphere, with around 30 kt effective shear. Instances of severe hail and/or wind gusts could occur. ...Southern Maine... Clouds have lingered much of the morning with rather weak lapse rates noted in the 12z KGYX/Gray Maine observed sounding, but clearing is occurring from the west and a narrow zone of modest destabilization should occur this afternoon, within a very moist environment (lower/middle 70s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a cold front. Pending sufficient destabilization, a locally severe storm or two could occur, potentially with an absence of lightning, in the presence of long/semi-straight hodographs (highlighted by 45-50 kt winds 3-6 km AGL). ...Central/south-central portions of Illinois and Indiana... Ample low-level CAPE (100+ J/kg 0-km AGL) near the southward-shifting boundary could lead to some potential for funnels or perhaps even a brief non-supercell tornado this afternoon. Some of the storms could otherwise pose a risk for gusty winds, but the overall potential for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible over parts of southern Arizona from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Arizona... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, and smaller mountain ranges to the south. That will occur as strong insolation at those higher elevations preferentially removes MLCINH, in the presence of generally greater low-level moisture than previous days. Some strengthening of flow aloft is expected over this region on the southeast periphery of the upper anticyclone. This will support convective motion off the Rim (and small mountain ranges to its south), into strongly heated/deeply mixed boundary layers of the desert floor. Isolated strong-severe gusts are possible from the relatively early, more-discrete activity, and swaths of strong-severe gusts are possible as convection moves southwestward toward the international border. ...Northern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to form near the lee trough, where both relatively maximized convergence and strong surface heating should contribute to enough lift for convective initiation. The main concern should be damaging to severe gusts, given the deeply mixed subcloud layer. Isolated severe hail also may occur, amidst enough deep-layer shear for some organized thunderstorms (effective-shear magnitudes of 30-40 kt). Lack of greater moisture and buoyancy will be a limiting factor for coverage and intensity of convection, which should diminish rapidly after sunset. ...Southeast Kansas/Southern Missouri... A few severe storms could develop today to the east-northeast of a surface wave near the Oklahoma/Kansas border in vicinity of front that extends into Missouri, which may be somewhat effectively augmented by lingering early day convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will exist within a moist environment, with MLCAPE likely to reach 2500-3000 J/kg. A considerable vertical veering of winds will exist through the lower/middle troposphere, with around 30 kt effective shear. Instances of severe hail and/or wind gusts could occur. ...Southern Maine... Clouds have lingered much of the morning with rather weak lapse rates noted in the 12z KGYX/Gray Maine observed sounding, but clearing is occurring from the west and a narrow zone of modest destabilization should occur this afternoon, within a very moist environment (lower/middle 70s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a cold front. Pending sufficient destabilization, a locally severe storm or two could occur, potentially with an absence of lightning, in the presence of long/semi-straight hodographs (highlighted by 45-50 kt winds 3-6 km AGL). ...Central/south-central portions of Illinois and Indiana... Ample low-level CAPE (100+ J/kg 0-km AGL) near the southward-shifting boundary could lead to some potential for funnels or perhaps even a brief non-supercell tornado this afternoon. Some of the storms could otherwise pose a risk for gusty winds, but the overall potential for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible over parts of southern Arizona from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Arizona... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, and smaller mountain ranges to the south. That will occur as strong insolation at those higher elevations preferentially removes MLCINH, in the presence of generally greater low-level moisture than previous days. Some strengthening of flow aloft is expected over this region on the southeast periphery of the upper anticyclone. This will support convective motion off the Rim (and small mountain ranges to its south), into strongly heated/deeply mixed boundary layers of the desert floor. Isolated strong-severe gusts are possible from the relatively early, more-discrete activity, and swaths of strong-severe gusts are possible as convection moves southwestward toward the international border. ...Northern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to form near the lee trough, where both relatively maximized convergence and strong surface heating should contribute to enough lift for convective initiation. The main concern should be damaging to severe gusts, given the deeply mixed subcloud layer. Isolated severe hail also may occur, amidst enough deep-layer shear for some organized thunderstorms (effective-shear magnitudes of 30-40 kt). Lack of greater moisture and buoyancy will be a limiting factor for coverage and intensity of convection, which should diminish rapidly after sunset. ...Southeast Kansas/Southern Missouri... A few severe storms could develop today to the east-northeast of a surface wave near the Oklahoma/Kansas border in vicinity of front that extends into Missouri, which may be somewhat effectively augmented by lingering early day convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will exist within a moist environment, with MLCAPE likely to reach 2500-3000 J/kg. A considerable vertical veering of winds will exist through the lower/middle troposphere, with around 30 kt effective shear. Instances of severe hail and/or wind gusts could occur. ...Southern Maine... Clouds have lingered much of the morning with rather weak lapse rates noted in the 12z KGYX/Gray Maine observed sounding, but clearing is occurring from the west and a narrow zone of modest destabilization should occur this afternoon, within a very moist environment (lower/middle 70s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a cold front. Pending sufficient destabilization, a locally severe storm or two could occur, potentially with an absence of lightning, in the presence of long/semi-straight hodographs (highlighted by 45-50 kt winds 3-6 km AGL). ...Central/south-central portions of Illinois and Indiana... Ample low-level CAPE (100+ J/kg 0-km AGL) near the southward-shifting boundary could lead to some potential for funnels or perhaps even a brief non-supercell tornado this afternoon. Some of the storms could otherwise pose a risk for gusty winds, but the overall potential for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible over parts of southern Arizona from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Arizona... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, and smaller mountain ranges to the south. That will occur as strong insolation at those higher elevations preferentially removes MLCINH, in the presence of generally greater low-level moisture than previous days. Some strengthening of flow aloft is expected over this region on the southeast periphery of the upper anticyclone. This will support convective motion off the Rim (and small mountain ranges to its south), into strongly heated/deeply mixed boundary layers of the desert floor. Isolated strong-severe gusts are possible from the relatively early, more-discrete activity, and swaths of strong-severe gusts are possible as convection moves southwestward toward the international border. ...Northern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to form near the lee trough, where both relatively maximized convergence and strong surface heating should contribute to enough lift for convective initiation. The main concern should be damaging to severe gusts, given the deeply mixed subcloud layer. Isolated severe hail also may occur, amidst enough deep-layer shear for some organized thunderstorms (effective-shear magnitudes of 30-40 kt). Lack of greater moisture and buoyancy will be a limiting factor for coverage and intensity of convection, which should diminish rapidly after sunset. ...Southeast Kansas/Southern Missouri... A few severe storms could develop today to the east-northeast of a surface wave near the Oklahoma/Kansas border in vicinity of front that extends into Missouri, which may be somewhat effectively augmented by lingering early day convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will exist within a moist environment, with MLCAPE likely to reach 2500-3000 J/kg. A considerable vertical veering of winds will exist through the lower/middle troposphere, with around 30 kt effective shear. Instances of severe hail and/or wind gusts could occur. ...Southern Maine... Clouds have lingered much of the morning with rather weak lapse rates noted in the 12z KGYX/Gray Maine observed sounding, but clearing is occurring from the west and a narrow zone of modest destabilization should occur this afternoon, within a very moist environment (lower/middle 70s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a cold front. Pending sufficient destabilization, a locally severe storm or two could occur, potentially with an absence of lightning, in the presence of long/semi-straight hodographs (highlighted by 45-50 kt winds 3-6 km AGL). ...Central/south-central portions of Illinois and Indiana... Ample low-level CAPE (100+ J/kg 0-km AGL) near the southward-shifting boundary could lead to some potential for funnels or perhaps even a brief non-supercell tornado this afternoon. Some of the storms could otherwise pose a risk for gusty winds, but the overall potential for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible over parts of southern Arizona from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Arizona... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, and smaller mountain ranges to the south. That will occur as strong insolation at those higher elevations preferentially removes MLCINH, in the presence of generally greater low-level moisture than previous days. Some strengthening of flow aloft is expected over this region on the southeast periphery of the upper anticyclone. This will support convective motion off the Rim (and small mountain ranges to its south), into strongly heated/deeply mixed boundary layers of the desert floor. Isolated strong-severe gusts are possible from the relatively early, more-discrete activity, and swaths of strong-severe gusts are possible as convection moves southwestward toward the international border. ...Northern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to form near the lee trough, where both relatively maximized convergence and strong surface heating should contribute to enough lift for convective initiation. The main concern should be damaging to severe gusts, given the deeply mixed subcloud layer. Isolated severe hail also may occur, amidst enough deep-layer shear for some organized thunderstorms (effective-shear magnitudes of 30-40 kt). Lack of greater moisture and buoyancy will be a limiting factor for coverage and intensity of convection, which should diminish rapidly after sunset. ...Southeast Kansas/Southern Missouri... A few severe storms could develop today to the east-northeast of a surface wave near the Oklahoma/Kansas border in vicinity of front that extends into Missouri, which may be somewhat effectively augmented by lingering early day convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will exist within a moist environment, with MLCAPE likely to reach 2500-3000 J/kg. A considerable vertical veering of winds will exist through the lower/middle troposphere, with around 30 kt effective shear. Instances of severe hail and/or wind gusts could occur. ...Southern Maine... Clouds have lingered much of the morning with rather weak lapse rates noted in the 12z KGYX/Gray Maine observed sounding, but clearing is occurring from the west and a narrow zone of modest destabilization should occur this afternoon, within a very moist environment (lower/middle 70s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a cold front. Pending sufficient destabilization, a locally severe storm or two could occur, potentially with an absence of lightning, in the presence of long/semi-straight hodographs (highlighted by 45-50 kt winds 3-6 km AGL). ...Central/south-central portions of Illinois and Indiana... Ample low-level CAPE (100+ J/kg 0-km AGL) near the southward-shifting boundary could lead to some potential for funnels or perhaps even a brief non-supercell tornado this afternoon. Some of the storms could otherwise pose a risk for gusty winds, but the overall potential for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible over parts of southern Arizona from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Arizona... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, and smaller mountain ranges to the south. That will occur as strong insolation at those higher elevations preferentially removes MLCINH, in the presence of generally greater low-level moisture than previous days. Some strengthening of flow aloft is expected over this region on the southeast periphery of the upper anticyclone. This will support convective motion off the Rim (and small mountain ranges to its south), into strongly heated/deeply mixed boundary layers of the desert floor. Isolated strong-severe gusts are possible from the relatively early, more-discrete activity, and swaths of strong-severe gusts are possible as convection moves southwestward toward the international border. ...Northern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to form near the lee trough, where both relatively maximized convergence and strong surface heating should contribute to enough lift for convective initiation. The main concern should be damaging to severe gusts, given the deeply mixed subcloud layer. Isolated severe hail also may occur, amidst enough deep-layer shear for some organized thunderstorms (effective-shear magnitudes of 30-40 kt). Lack of greater moisture and buoyancy will be a limiting factor for coverage and intensity of convection, which should diminish rapidly after sunset. ...Southeast Kansas/Southern Missouri... A few severe storms could develop today to the east-northeast of a surface wave near the Oklahoma/Kansas border in vicinity of front that extends into Missouri, which may be somewhat effectively augmented by lingering early day convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will exist within a moist environment, with MLCAPE likely to reach 2500-3000 J/kg. A considerable vertical veering of winds will exist through the lower/middle troposphere, with around 30 kt effective shear. Instances of severe hail and/or wind gusts could occur. ...Southern Maine... Clouds have lingered much of the morning with rather weak lapse rates noted in the 12z KGYX/Gray Maine observed sounding, but clearing is occurring from the west and a narrow zone of modest destabilization should occur this afternoon, within a very moist environment (lower/middle 70s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a cold front. Pending sufficient destabilization, a locally severe storm or two could occur, potentially with an absence of lightning, in the presence of long/semi-straight hodographs (highlighted by 45-50 kt winds 3-6 km AGL). ...Central/south-central portions of Illinois and Indiana... Ample low-level CAPE (100+ J/kg 0-km AGL) near the southward-shifting boundary could lead to some potential for funnels or perhaps even a brief non-supercell tornado this afternoon. Some of the storms could otherwise pose a risk for gusty winds, but the overall potential for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible over parts of southern Arizona from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Arizona... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, and smaller mountain ranges to the south. That will occur as strong insolation at those higher elevations preferentially removes MLCINH, in the presence of generally greater low-level moisture than previous days. Some strengthening of flow aloft is expected over this region on the southeast periphery of the upper anticyclone. This will support convective motion off the Rim (and small mountain ranges to its south), into strongly heated/deeply mixed boundary layers of the desert floor. Isolated strong-severe gusts are possible from the relatively early, more-discrete activity, and swaths of strong-severe gusts are possible as convection moves southwestward toward the international border. ...Northern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to form near the lee trough, where both relatively maximized convergence and strong surface heating should contribute to enough lift for convective initiation. The main concern should be damaging to severe gusts, given the deeply mixed subcloud layer. Isolated severe hail also may occur, amidst enough deep-layer shear for some organized thunderstorms (effective-shear magnitudes of 30-40 kt). Lack of greater moisture and buoyancy will be a limiting factor for coverage and intensity of convection, which should diminish rapidly after sunset. ...Southeast Kansas/Southern Missouri... A few severe storms could develop today to the east-northeast of a surface wave near the Oklahoma/Kansas border in vicinity of front that extends into Missouri, which may be somewhat effectively augmented by lingering early day convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will exist within a moist environment, with MLCAPE likely to reach 2500-3000 J/kg. A considerable vertical veering of winds will exist through the lower/middle troposphere, with around 30 kt effective shear. Instances of severe hail and/or wind gusts could occur. ...Southern Maine... Clouds have lingered much of the morning with rather weak lapse rates noted in the 12z KGYX/Gray Maine observed sounding, but clearing is occurring from the west and a narrow zone of modest destabilization should occur this afternoon, within a very moist environment (lower/middle 70s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a cold front. Pending sufficient destabilization, a locally severe storm or two could occur, potentially with an absence of lightning, in the presence of long/semi-straight hodographs (highlighted by 45-50 kt winds 3-6 km AGL). ...Central/south-central portions of Illinois and Indiana... Ample low-level CAPE (100+ J/kg 0-km AGL) near the southward-shifting boundary could lead to some potential for funnels or perhaps even a brief non-supercell tornado this afternoon. Some of the storms could otherwise pose a risk for gusty winds, but the overall potential for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/11/2024 Read more