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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts are possible across southeast Arizona between 3-8 PM MST. ...Southeast AZ... Northeasterly mid-level flow is consistently progged to strengthen, southeast of a stout anticyclone over the southern Great Basin. This combined with slightly greater lower-level moisture/PW should yield a conditionally favorable threat for severe wind gusts centered on the greater Tucson vicinity. 00Z HREF guidance suggests at least scattered thunderstorm development should occur over parts of the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain of southeast AZ. This activity should overspread parts of the I-10/19 corridors into the lower deserts during the late afternoon to early evening. Whether it can congeal into a severe wind/haboob-producing MCS is unclear, but a series of dry microbursts capable of widely scattered severe wind gusts is plausible. ...Central High Plains to the northern Great Plains... In the mid-levels, between a stout anticyclone over the southern Great Basin and a low-amplitude shortwave trough in the southwest Great Lakes region, a belt of moderate northwesterly flow is anticipated at peak heating. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be the main limiting factor for coverage/intensity, but should be adequate for at least isolated thunderstorms along a weak surface trough. A rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profile should support sporadic severe wind gusts as the main threat. But isolated severe hail will be possible in the western SD/NE vicinity where the mid/upper-level wind profile favors transient updraft rotation in conjunction with somewhat greater buoyancy. ...IN to southeast KS... Sporadic strong storms may briefly approach marginal severe thresholds during the late afternoon through sunset. Overall threat appears too localized to warrant a level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams/Dean.. 07/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts are possible across southeast Arizona between 3-8 PM MST. ...Southeast AZ... Northeasterly mid-level flow is consistently progged to strengthen, southeast of a stout anticyclone over the southern Great Basin. This combined with slightly greater lower-level moisture/PW should yield a conditionally favorable threat for severe wind gusts centered on the greater Tucson vicinity. 00Z HREF guidance suggests at least scattered thunderstorm development should occur over parts of the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain of southeast AZ. This activity should overspread parts of the I-10/19 corridors into the lower deserts during the late afternoon to early evening. Whether it can congeal into a severe wind/haboob-producing MCS is unclear, but a series of dry microbursts capable of widely scattered severe wind gusts is plausible. ...Central High Plains to the northern Great Plains... In the mid-levels, between a stout anticyclone over the southern Great Basin and a low-amplitude shortwave trough in the southwest Great Lakes region, a belt of moderate northwesterly flow is anticipated at peak heating. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be the main limiting factor for coverage/intensity, but should be adequate for at least isolated thunderstorms along a weak surface trough. A rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profile should support sporadic severe wind gusts as the main threat. But isolated severe hail will be possible in the western SD/NE vicinity where the mid/upper-level wind profile favors transient updraft rotation in conjunction with somewhat greater buoyancy. ...IN to southeast KS... Sporadic strong storms may briefly approach marginal severe thresholds during the late afternoon through sunset. Overall threat appears too localized to warrant a level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams/Dean.. 07/11/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend or early
next week several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja
California. Conditions appear favorable for some slow development
thereafter while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

464
ABNT20 KNHC 110506
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Beryl, located near the Great Lakes.

Off the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
A broad trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coast continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for some additional development of this system over the
next couple of days before it moves inland over the southeastern
U.S. by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

MD 1578 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 520... FOR PORTIONS OF NH AND WESTERN ME
Mesoscale Discussion 1578 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0829 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...portions of NH and western ME Concerning...Tornado Watch 520... Valid 110129Z - 110300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 520 continues. SUMMARY...A severe storm or two remains possible in the short term, but overall risk is expected to wane over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Instability has decreased over the past hour as the boundary-layer begins to cool post-sunset and low-level inhibition increases. While low-level shear may still support weak rotation in the vicinity of the warm front, meager 0-3 km MLCAPE should limit tornado potential as the boundary layer continues to stabilize this evening. While a brief spin-up or strong gust is possible in the short term, overall severe potential is expected to decrease with time over the next 1-2 hours. As such, Tornado Watch 520 may be allowed to expire at or before 04z. ..Leitman.. 07/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV... LAT...LON 44627179 44857127 44837071 44657038 44557038 44137042 43597090 43437146 43617202 43837214 44507201 44627179 Read more

MD 1577 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 519... FOR NORTHWEST NO...NORTHEAST KS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1577 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...Northwest NO...northeast KS...extreme southeast NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519... Valid 110111Z - 110245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and damaging wind may persist through the evening. DISCUSSION...While much of the deep convection across the region has tended to weaken this evening, a vigorous cell is currently ongoing near St. Joseph, MO, with other stronger storms noted across extreme southeast NE. There is some potential for the stronger storms from extreme northeast KS into northwest MO to continue southeastward for another 1-2 hours as they track along or just to the cool side of an outflow boundary that is sagging southwestward across the region. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear around 30 kt could continue to support occasionally organized storms, with an isolated hail and damaging-wind threat. Storms should generally weaken by late evening due to increasing MLCINH, and additional watch issuance is not anticipated. However, some severe threat could spread south of WW 319 before a more definitive weakening trend occurs. ..Dean.. 07/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 40639634 40419529 39999472 39129434 38899492 38949552 39299609 39799629 40639634 Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CNK TO 20 S FNB TO 35 SE SDA TO 35 NNE STJ TO 25 W CDJ TO 30 NW SZL. WW 519 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 110300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577 ..DEAN..07/11/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...TOP...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC003-021-049-063-075-087-147-110300- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CLINTON DEKALB GENTRY HOLT NODAWAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CNK TO 20 S FNB TO 35 SE SDA TO 35 NNE STJ TO 25 W CDJ TO 30 NW SZL. WW 519 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 110300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577 ..DEAN..07/11/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...TOP...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC003-021-049-063-075-087-147-110300- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CLINTON DEKALB GENTRY HOLT NODAWAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 519 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 101945Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Northeast Kansas Northern Missouri Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms and possibly a semi-discrete supercell or two will spread generally southeastward across the region through early evening, with severe hail and wind possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Falls City NE to 40 miles east of Kirksville MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 520 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MPV TO 35 E BML. ..LEITMAN..07/11/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 520 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC017-110340- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE OXFORD NHC001-003-009-110340- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL GRAFTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 520 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MPV TO 35 E BML. ..LEITMAN..07/11/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 520 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC017-110340- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE OXFORD NHC001-003-009-110340- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL GRAFTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 520 TORNADO ME NH 102155Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Maine Northern and Central New Hampshire * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread eastward from Vermont through this evening. The strongest activity should pose some threat for a couple of tornadoes, along with strong to locally damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Mount Washington NH to 30 miles east of Mount Washington NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518...WW 519... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LNK TO 15 S SDA TO 40 NNE STJ TO 10 SSW CDJ TO 45 WNW COU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577 ..DEAN..07/11/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...TOP...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC013-043-131-110240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN DONIPHAN NEMAHA MOC003-005-021-049-063-075-087-147-110240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN CLINTON DEKALB GENTRY HOLT NODAWAY NEC097-127-133-147-110240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 520 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..07/11/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 520 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC017-110140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE OXFORD NHC001-003-007-009-110140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL COOS GRAFTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 520 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..07/11/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 520 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC017-110140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE OXFORD NHC001-003-007-009-110140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL COOS GRAFTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CXY TO 30 NE IPT TO 25 E BGM TO 30 SE UCA TO 40 S SLK TO 15 ENE BTV TO 25 SSE EFK. ..LEITMAN..07/11/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC001-025-031-035-041-057-077-083-091-093-095-113-115-110140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY DELAWARE ESSEX FULTON HAMILTON MONTGOMERY OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE WARREN WASHINGTON PAC037-043-069-079-093-107-113-115-127-131-110140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA DAUPHIN LACKAWANNA LUZERNE MONTOUR SCHUYLKILL SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING VTC001-005-007-017-021-023-027-110140- Read more