Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. Locally damaging gusts will also be possible mainly over southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes northeastward to an upper low over southwest Quebec. A leading low-amplitude feature will move across northern New England early in the day, with warming aloft during the afternoon. To the west, a large upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin. Winds around the high will result in a modest northwest flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, and northeasterly winds over AZ and NM. At the surface, low pressure associated with the early day wave will likely weaken over northern New England, with substantial drying occurring from the southwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Canadian border and across parts of ME, but subsidence will result in sparse/weak activity. ...Southern AZ... Storms are expected to form along the Mogollon Rim and extending into southwest NM after 18Z, with strong to locally damaging gusts spreading southwestward mainly across the Tucson area. Precipitable water around 1.00" and steep lapse rates will favor development over the higher terrain, while modest northeasterly midlevel winds around the ridge will favor a southwestward push to the storms/outflows. While instability will be greatest east of the Phoenix area, locally strong gusts could affect portions of metro. ...Central High Plains... Mid and high level winds are forecast to increase a bit over the northern high Plains, with a weak surface trough deepening into the peak heating hours. Strong heating will lead to deep mixed layers, with little inhibition. Moisture will be the limiting factor for overall storm coverage, but at least isolated cells are expected from near the Black Hills spreading southeastward across the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO. Given the meager moisture and fairly weak shear hail appears a lower risk as compared to locally strong to severe gusts. However, stronger cells could briefly produce hail in closer proximity to the moisture/instability gradient. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more