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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic States to the Deep South from mid-afternoon to early evening on Sunday. ...Middle Atlantic to Deep South... Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough will shift east today with a 19/00z position forecast along the spine of the Appalachians. Modest 500mb flow should extend within the base of the trough into the Middle Atlantic. This flow regime will aid the organizational potential of convection that evolves ahead of the primary synoptic front. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low may develop over northern VA/MD by late afternoon and this feature should track into NJ during the overnight hours. While deep-layer flow is not forecast to be exceptionally strong, 0-6km bulk shear will exceed 30kt within a warm-advection zone. Forecast soundings favor storm rotation and a few supercells may ultimately evolve across this region. In addition to damaging wind threat, some risk for hail and perhaps a brief tornado can be expected. Trailing front across the Deep South will not be particularly convergent as it surges into GA-AL-MS. Pre-frontal boundary layer will be adequately buoyant for robust updrafts and any storms that evolve ahead of the wind shift will do so within an environment that favors some organization. Convection will propagate southeast toward the Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow deepens with trough passage. ...Rockies/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough topping the Rockies ridge over western WY at this time. This feature will track southeast across the central Plains this afternoon as a 500mb speed max translates into the lower MO Valley. LLJ will respond to this feature which should contribute to an extensive zone of elevated convection early in the period. This activity will propagate southeast along a sharp corridor of warm advection into eastern KS, then into the lower MS Valley during the overnight hours. Have increased severe probabilities to account for this evolution. Primary concern is damaging winds. ...Interior West... Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms will once again develop across western UT and track north-northeast along the western/northern periphery of the dominant anticyclone. Gusty winds are possible with this diurnally enhanced activity. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic States to the Deep South from mid-afternoon to early evening on Sunday. ...Middle Atlantic to Deep South... Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough will shift east today with a 19/00z position forecast along the spine of the Appalachians. Modest 500mb flow should extend within the base of the trough into the Middle Atlantic. This flow regime will aid the organizational potential of convection that evolves ahead of the primary synoptic front. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low may develop over northern VA/MD by late afternoon and this feature should track into NJ during the overnight hours. While deep-layer flow is not forecast to be exceptionally strong, 0-6km bulk shear will exceed 30kt within a warm-advection zone. Forecast soundings favor storm rotation and a few supercells may ultimately evolve across this region. In addition to damaging wind threat, some risk for hail and perhaps a brief tornado can be expected. Trailing front across the Deep South will not be particularly convergent as it surges into GA-AL-MS. Pre-frontal boundary layer will be adequately buoyant for robust updrafts and any storms that evolve ahead of the wind shift will do so within an environment that favors some organization. Convection will propagate southeast toward the Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow deepens with trough passage. ...Rockies/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough topping the Rockies ridge over western WY at this time. This feature will track southeast across the central Plains this afternoon as a 500mb speed max translates into the lower MO Valley. LLJ will respond to this feature which should contribute to an extensive zone of elevated convection early in the period. This activity will propagate southeast along a sharp corridor of warm advection into eastern KS, then into the lower MS Valley during the overnight hours. Have increased severe probabilities to account for this evolution. Primary concern is damaging winds. ...Interior West... Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms will once again develop across western UT and track north-northeast along the western/northern periphery of the dominant anticyclone. Gusty winds are possible with this diurnally enhanced activity. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic States to the Deep South from mid-afternoon to early evening on Sunday. ...Middle Atlantic to Deep South... Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough will shift east today with a 19/00z position forecast along the spine of the Appalachians. Modest 500mb flow should extend within the base of the trough into the Middle Atlantic. This flow regime will aid the organizational potential of convection that evolves ahead of the primary synoptic front. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low may develop over northern VA/MD by late afternoon and this feature should track into NJ during the overnight hours. While deep-layer flow is not forecast to be exceptionally strong, 0-6km bulk shear will exceed 30kt within a warm-advection zone. Forecast soundings favor storm rotation and a few supercells may ultimately evolve across this region. In addition to damaging wind threat, some risk for hail and perhaps a brief tornado can be expected. Trailing front across the Deep South will not be particularly convergent as it surges into GA-AL-MS. Pre-frontal boundary layer will be adequately buoyant for robust updrafts and any storms that evolve ahead of the wind shift will do so within an environment that favors some organization. Convection will propagate southeast toward the Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow deepens with trough passage. ...Rockies/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough topping the Rockies ridge over western WY at this time. This feature will track southeast across the central Plains this afternoon as a 500mb speed max translates into the lower MO Valley. LLJ will respond to this feature which should contribute to an extensive zone of elevated convection early in the period. This activity will propagate southeast along a sharp corridor of warm advection into eastern KS, then into the lower MS Valley during the overnight hours. Have increased severe probabilities to account for this evolution. Primary concern is damaging winds. ...Interior West... Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms will once again develop across western UT and track north-northeast along the western/northern periphery of the dominant anticyclone. Gusty winds are possible with this diurnally enhanced activity. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic States to the Deep South from mid-afternoon to early evening on Sunday. ...Middle Atlantic to Deep South... Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough will shift east today with a 19/00z position forecast along the spine of the Appalachians. Modest 500mb flow should extend within the base of the trough into the Middle Atlantic. This flow regime will aid the organizational potential of convection that evolves ahead of the primary synoptic front. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low may develop over northern VA/MD by late afternoon and this feature should track into NJ during the overnight hours. While deep-layer flow is not forecast to be exceptionally strong, 0-6km bulk shear will exceed 30kt within a warm-advection zone. Forecast soundings favor storm rotation and a few supercells may ultimately evolve across this region. In addition to damaging wind threat, some risk for hail and perhaps a brief tornado can be expected. Trailing front across the Deep South will not be particularly convergent as it surges into GA-AL-MS. Pre-frontal boundary layer will be adequately buoyant for robust updrafts and any storms that evolve ahead of the wind shift will do so within an environment that favors some organization. Convection will propagate southeast toward the Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow deepens with trough passage. ...Rockies/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough topping the Rockies ridge over western WY at this time. This feature will track southeast across the central Plains this afternoon as a 500mb speed max translates into the lower MO Valley. LLJ will respond to this feature which should contribute to an extensive zone of elevated convection early in the period. This activity will propagate southeast along a sharp corridor of warm advection into eastern KS, then into the lower MS Valley during the overnight hours. Have increased severe probabilities to account for this evolution. Primary concern is damaging winds. ...Interior West... Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms will once again develop across western UT and track north-northeast along the western/northern periphery of the dominant anticyclone. Gusty winds are possible with this diurnally enhanced activity. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic States to the Deep South from mid-afternoon to early evening on Sunday. ...Middle Atlantic to Deep South... Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough will shift east today with a 19/00z position forecast along the spine of the Appalachians. Modest 500mb flow should extend within the base of the trough into the Middle Atlantic. This flow regime will aid the organizational potential of convection that evolves ahead of the primary synoptic front. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low may develop over northern VA/MD by late afternoon and this feature should track into NJ during the overnight hours. While deep-layer flow is not forecast to be exceptionally strong, 0-6km bulk shear will exceed 30kt within a warm-advection zone. Forecast soundings favor storm rotation and a few supercells may ultimately evolve across this region. In addition to damaging wind threat, some risk for hail and perhaps a brief tornado can be expected. Trailing front across the Deep South will not be particularly convergent as it surges into GA-AL-MS. Pre-frontal boundary layer will be adequately buoyant for robust updrafts and any storms that evolve ahead of the wind shift will do so within an environment that favors some organization. Convection will propagate southeast toward the Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow deepens with trough passage. ...Rockies/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough topping the Rockies ridge over western WY at this time. This feature will track southeast across the central Plains this afternoon as a 500mb speed max translates into the lower MO Valley. LLJ will respond to this feature which should contribute to an extensive zone of elevated convection early in the period. This activity will propagate southeast along a sharp corridor of warm advection into eastern KS, then into the lower MS Valley during the overnight hours. Have increased severe probabilities to account for this evolution. Primary concern is damaging winds. ...Interior West... Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms will once again develop across western UT and track north-northeast along the western/northern periphery of the dominant anticyclone. Gusty winds are possible with this diurnally enhanced activity. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 Read more

MD 1938 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN OREGON INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON
Mesoscale Discussion 1938 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0824 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northern Oregon into central Washington Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631... Valid 180124Z - 180300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631. Damaging gusts and hail are the main threats over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A band of multicells and transient supercells continue to progress northward in conjunction with a 700 mb impulse/500 mb speed max, with a history of occasional 1 inch hail reports. These storms will continue to progress into an unstable airmass, characterized by at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. With 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear overspreading this buoyancy axis, the ongoing storms may remain organized for at least a few more hours, accompanied by a continued strong gust/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PDT...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 45892249 47142253 47592202 47602124 47252061 46732027 46022015 45582021 45312038 45122066 45072080 45092115 45212175 45892249 Read more

WW 0631 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW RDM TO 20 SE PDX TO 30 NW PDX. ..SQUITIERI..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...PQR...PDT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC017-027-029-180240- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESCHUTES HOOD RIVER JACKSON WAC011-059-180240- WA . WASHINGTON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK SKAMANIA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0631 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW RDM TO 20 SE PDX TO 30 NW PDX. ..SQUITIERI..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...PQR...PDT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC017-027-029-180240- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESCHUTES HOOD RIVER JACKSON WAC011-059-180240- WA . WASHINGTON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK SKAMANIA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0631 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW RDM TO 20 SE PDX TO 30 NW PDX. ..SQUITIERI..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...PQR...PDT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC017-027-029-180240- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESCHUTES HOOD RIVER JACKSON WAC011-059-180240- WA . WASHINGTON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK SKAMANIA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 631 SEVERE TSTM CA OR WA 172020Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 631 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern California Western Oregon Southwest Washington * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM PDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along and west of the Cascade Range, tracking northward across the watch area. A few severe storms are expected, capable of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles south southwest of Mount Shasta CA to 60 miles north northeast of Portland OR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 630... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 20030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1937 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632... FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Areas affected...Central Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632... Valid 180021Z - 180115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated wind-damage threat may persist for another hour or so before diminishing. DISCUSSION...Surface cooling is underway with sunset, which will result in a gradual decrease in surface-based buoyancy in the warm sector ahead of the ongoing convection across GA. However, a storm-scale merger of a more east-west band with a more north-south cluster from the west will locally boost updraft intensity into parts of the Atlanta metro area for the next 1 hour or so, which will help maintain some threat for additional wind damage. Thereafter, storms are expected to weaken and the severe threat will diminish. ..Thompson.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC... LAT...LON 33118384 33198439 33268482 33498488 33478418 33528373 33398362 33198363 33118384 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of southwest Washington this evening. Hail/wind remain possible. Isolated damaging gusts are also expected with convection across portions of the southern Appalachians into the Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently ejecting north across northern CA into western OR. Water-vapor imagery also suggests a lead disturbance may be associated with a fairly extensive cluster of deep convection as it advances across northern OR into southwest WA. Surface temperatures are holding in the lower 90s across lower elevations of southern WA east of the Cascades. Latest diagnostic data suggests a narrow corridor of higher instability extends along/just east of the Cascades. While convection should spread/develop north along the higher terrain, northeasterly low-level flow should contribute to robust updrafts capable of generating hail/wind. Northwesterly flow is deepening across the southern Appalachians early this evening as the upper trough progresses steadily east. A broken band of organized convection is propagating southeast across northwestern SC/northern GA through an axis of instability characterized by 1500 MLCAPE. This activity may produce locally damaging gusts for the next few hours, but otherwise will gradually decrease in intensity as boundary layer cools this evening. More isolated convection is observed across KY into the upper OH Valley. This activity will also gradually wane in intensity as the evening progresses and low-level lapse rates weaken. Until then, a few gusts may be noted. ..Darrow.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of southwest Washington this evening. Hail/wind remain possible. Isolated damaging gusts are also expected with convection across portions of the southern Appalachians into the Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently ejecting north across northern CA into western OR. Water-vapor imagery also suggests a lead disturbance may be associated with a fairly extensive cluster of deep convection as it advances across northern OR into southwest WA. Surface temperatures are holding in the lower 90s across lower elevations of southern WA east of the Cascades. Latest diagnostic data suggests a narrow corridor of higher instability extends along/just east of the Cascades. While convection should spread/develop north along the higher terrain, northeasterly low-level flow should contribute to robust updrafts capable of generating hail/wind. Northwesterly flow is deepening across the southern Appalachians early this evening as the upper trough progresses steadily east. A broken band of organized convection is propagating southeast across northwestern SC/northern GA through an axis of instability characterized by 1500 MLCAPE. This activity may produce locally damaging gusts for the next few hours, but otherwise will gradually decrease in intensity as boundary layer cools this evening. More isolated convection is observed across KY into the upper OH Valley. This activity will also gradually wane in intensity as the evening progresses and low-level lapse rates weaken. Until then, a few gusts may be noted. ..Darrow.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of southwest Washington this evening. Hail/wind remain possible. Isolated damaging gusts are also expected with convection across portions of the southern Appalachians into the Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently ejecting north across northern CA into western OR. Water-vapor imagery also suggests a lead disturbance may be associated with a fairly extensive cluster of deep convection as it advances across northern OR into southwest WA. Surface temperatures are holding in the lower 90s across lower elevations of southern WA east of the Cascades. Latest diagnostic data suggests a narrow corridor of higher instability extends along/just east of the Cascades. While convection should spread/develop north along the higher terrain, northeasterly low-level flow should contribute to robust updrafts capable of generating hail/wind. Northwesterly flow is deepening across the southern Appalachians early this evening as the upper trough progresses steadily east. A broken band of organized convection is propagating southeast across northwestern SC/northern GA through an axis of instability characterized by 1500 MLCAPE. This activity may produce locally damaging gusts for the next few hours, but otherwise will gradually decrease in intensity as boundary layer cools this evening. More isolated convection is observed across KY into the upper OH Valley. This activity will also gradually wane in intensity as the evening progresses and low-level lapse rates weaken. Until then, a few gusts may be noted. ..Darrow.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of southwest Washington this evening. Hail/wind remain possible. Isolated damaging gusts are also expected with convection across portions of the southern Appalachians into the Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently ejecting north across northern CA into western OR. Water-vapor imagery also suggests a lead disturbance may be associated with a fairly extensive cluster of deep convection as it advances across northern OR into southwest WA. Surface temperatures are holding in the lower 90s across lower elevations of southern WA east of the Cascades. Latest diagnostic data suggests a narrow corridor of higher instability extends along/just east of the Cascades. While convection should spread/develop north along the higher terrain, northeasterly low-level flow should contribute to robust updrafts capable of generating hail/wind. Northwesterly flow is deepening across the southern Appalachians early this evening as the upper trough progresses steadily east. A broken band of organized convection is propagating southeast across northwestern SC/northern GA through an axis of instability characterized by 1500 MLCAPE. This activity may produce locally damaging gusts for the next few hours, but otherwise will gradually decrease in intensity as boundary layer cools this evening. More isolated convection is observed across KY into the upper OH Valley. This activity will also gradually wane in intensity as the evening progresses and low-level lapse rates weaken. Until then, a few gusts may be noted. ..Darrow.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of southwest Washington this evening. Hail/wind remain possible. Isolated damaging gusts are also expected with convection across portions of the southern Appalachians into the Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently ejecting north across northern CA into western OR. Water-vapor imagery also suggests a lead disturbance may be associated with a fairly extensive cluster of deep convection as it advances across northern OR into southwest WA. Surface temperatures are holding in the lower 90s across lower elevations of southern WA east of the Cascades. Latest diagnostic data suggests a narrow corridor of higher instability extends along/just east of the Cascades. While convection should spread/develop north along the higher terrain, northeasterly low-level flow should contribute to robust updrafts capable of generating hail/wind. Northwesterly flow is deepening across the southern Appalachians early this evening as the upper trough progresses steadily east. A broken band of organized convection is propagating southeast across northwestern SC/northern GA through an axis of instability characterized by 1500 MLCAPE. This activity may produce locally damaging gusts for the next few hours, but otherwise will gradually decrease in intensity as boundary layer cools this evening. More isolated convection is observed across KY into the upper OH Valley. This activity will also gradually wane in intensity as the evening progresses and low-level lapse rates weaken. Until then, a few gusts may be noted. ..Darrow.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of southwest Washington this evening. Hail/wind remain possible. Isolated damaging gusts are also expected with convection across portions of the southern Appalachians into the Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently ejecting north across northern CA into western OR. Water-vapor imagery also suggests a lead disturbance may be associated with a fairly extensive cluster of deep convection as it advances across northern OR into southwest WA. Surface temperatures are holding in the lower 90s across lower elevations of southern WA east of the Cascades. Latest diagnostic data suggests a narrow corridor of higher instability extends along/just east of the Cascades. While convection should spread/develop north along the higher terrain, northeasterly low-level flow should contribute to robust updrafts capable of generating hail/wind. Northwesterly flow is deepening across the southern Appalachians early this evening as the upper trough progresses steadily east. A broken band of organized convection is propagating southeast across northwestern SC/northern GA through an axis of instability characterized by 1500 MLCAPE. This activity may produce locally damaging gusts for the next few hours, but otherwise will gradually decrease in intensity as boundary layer cools this evening. More isolated convection is observed across KY into the upper OH Valley. This activity will also gradually wane in intensity as the evening progresses and low-level lapse rates weaken. Until then, a few gusts may be noted. ..Darrow.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of southwest Washington this evening. Hail/wind remain possible. Isolated damaging gusts are also expected with convection across portions of the southern Appalachians into the Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently ejecting north across northern CA into western OR. Water-vapor imagery also suggests a lead disturbance may be associated with a fairly extensive cluster of deep convection as it advances across northern OR into southwest WA. Surface temperatures are holding in the lower 90s across lower elevations of southern WA east of the Cascades. Latest diagnostic data suggests a narrow corridor of higher instability extends along/just east of the Cascades. While convection should spread/develop north along the higher terrain, northeasterly low-level flow should contribute to robust updrafts capable of generating hail/wind. Northwesterly flow is deepening across the southern Appalachians early this evening as the upper trough progresses steadily east. A broken band of organized convection is propagating southeast across northwestern SC/northern GA through an axis of instability characterized by 1500 MLCAPE. This activity may produce locally damaging gusts for the next few hours, but otherwise will gradually decrease in intensity as boundary layer cools this evening. More isolated convection is observed across KY into the upper OH Valley. This activity will also gradually wane in intensity as the evening progresses and low-level lapse rates weaken. Until then, a few gusts may be noted. ..Darrow.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of southwest Washington this evening. Hail/wind remain possible. Isolated damaging gusts are also expected with convection across portions of the southern Appalachians into the Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently ejecting north across northern CA into western OR. Water-vapor imagery also suggests a lead disturbance may be associated with a fairly extensive cluster of deep convection as it advances across northern OR into southwest WA. Surface temperatures are holding in the lower 90s across lower elevations of southern WA east of the Cascades. Latest diagnostic data suggests a narrow corridor of higher instability extends along/just east of the Cascades. While convection should spread/develop north along the higher terrain, northeasterly low-level flow should contribute to robust updrafts capable of generating hail/wind. Northwesterly flow is deepening across the southern Appalachians early this evening as the upper trough progresses steadily east. A broken band of organized convection is propagating southeast across northwestern SC/northern GA through an axis of instability characterized by 1500 MLCAPE. This activity may produce locally damaging gusts for the next few hours, but otherwise will gradually decrease in intensity as boundary layer cools this evening. More isolated convection is observed across KY into the upper OH Valley. This activity will also gradually wane in intensity as the evening progresses and low-level lapse rates weaken. Until then, a few gusts may be noted. ..Darrow.. 08/18/2024 Read more

WW 0630 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 630 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E ELY TO 30 NE U24 TO 30 NNW PUC TO 45 N EVW. ..LYONS..08/17/24 ATTN...WFO...SLC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 630 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS UTC001-007-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-039-041-053-055-172240- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CARBON DUCHESNE EMERY GARFIELD IRON KANE MILLARD PIUTE SANPETE SEVIER WASHINGTON WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more