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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley, and over the northern and central Great Plains from late afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the northern-stream pattern is forecast in mid/ upper levels, as a persistent trough over the Great Lakes and vicinity moves eastward and weakens substantially. A height weakness will continue to extend from that area southwestward across the mid Mississippi Valley, Arklatex, and south TX, with several embedded/slow-moving vorticity lobes. Meanwhile, a broad area of difluent, zonal to northwesterly flow should continue over the central/northern Plains region, northeast of a prominent anticyclone shifting slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. At the surface, the 1Z analysis showed weak lows over northeastern MT and southwestern SD, along a quasistationary to slow-moving warm front drawn from southern AB to western SD, central/southeastern NE, central MO, and southern IL. The slightly better-defined MT low should move slowly eastward to northwestern ND by early evening, while the frontal zone to its southeast drifts eastward and northward over central SD, eastern NE, northeastern KS, and central/ northern MO. A lee trough -- initially drawn from western SD to eastern CO and the TX Panhandle -- should meander erratically near its present position today, with some adjustment by falling pressures related to strong surface heating. ...Northern/central Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are moving southeastward over portions of southeastern SD to central N this morning, in a zone of weak DCVA aloft superimposed on a broader area of low-level warm/moist advection above the surface. While an isolated, marginally severe hail report cannot be ruled out in another couple hours, the overall decreasing trend should continue as the LLJ likewise weakens through the remainder of the morning. Isolated to scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over western parts of the outlook area near the lee trough today, within a broad area of strong diurnal heating. Isolated development also may occur farther east near the warm front and greater low-level moisture, though weaker lift and stronger MLCINH are expected in that corridor than near the lee trough. Activity west of the front will move atop a deeply well-mixed boundary layer suitable for strong-severe downdrafts. Surface dewpoints mixing well down into the 40s to mid 50s will result in decreasing MLCAPE as MLCINH also weakens, with around 500-1000 J/kg expected in the most-probable area for storm formation. Buoyancy will increase eastward as mixing weakens, but capping strengthens, with a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE along and just east of the front. Considerable uncertainty exists how much of the lee- trough activity can aggregate cold pools and potentially utilize forced ascent eastward into the greater moisture, for longer and better organization. Outside the lee trough, forcing for convective-scale lift appears nebulous and poorly focused across the region, with considerable uncertainty remaining on preferred potential corridor(s) for greater severe concentration. One possibility is closer to a northern- stream mid/upper trough north of the international border, but still with uncertainty on the southern extent into the CONUS of any resulting MCS. These uncertainties are reflected in a wide range of convective distributions and intensities across the various convection-allowing guidance, as well as implied from precip fields in the deterministic synoptic models and their ensembles. As such, a broad marginal area is maintained for this outlook cycle, with embedded upgrade(s) possible if mesoscale trends and 12Z/later guidance come into clearer focus. ...Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley... Isolated to widely scattered, non-severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of southern MO, northwestern AR and extreme eastern OK, in a field of low-level WAA and weak DCVA. A related increase in convective coverage and intensity is possible farther east and southeast across portions of this region as the foregoing boundary layer diurnally destabilizes, with marginally severe gusts or hail possible in the strongest cells. One of the vorticity lobes embedded in the height weakness aloft, over eastern KS to central/eastern MO, is being enhanced by an MCV from prior/overnight convection now over southwestern MO. This feature will move slowly eastward today and may contribute to relatively maximized thunderstorm coverage in an increasingly unstable airmass from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley this afternoon. Rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) and diurnal heating should offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates to yield peak MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Weak low/middle-level flow and modest shear should limit organization enough that severe potential should remain isolated and poorly organized. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley, and over the northern and central Great Plains from late afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the northern-stream pattern is forecast in mid/ upper levels, as a persistent trough over the Great Lakes and vicinity moves eastward and weakens substantially. A height weakness will continue to extend from that area southwestward across the mid Mississippi Valley, Arklatex, and south TX, with several embedded/slow-moving vorticity lobes. Meanwhile, a broad area of difluent, zonal to northwesterly flow should continue over the central/northern Plains region, northeast of a prominent anticyclone shifting slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. At the surface, the 1Z analysis showed weak lows over northeastern MT and southwestern SD, along a quasistationary to slow-moving warm front drawn from southern AB to western SD, central/southeastern NE, central MO, and southern IL. The slightly better-defined MT low should move slowly eastward to northwestern ND by early evening, while the frontal zone to its southeast drifts eastward and northward over central SD, eastern NE, northeastern KS, and central/ northern MO. A lee trough -- initially drawn from western SD to eastern CO and the TX Panhandle -- should meander erratically near its present position today, with some adjustment by falling pressures related to strong surface heating. ...Northern/central Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are moving southeastward over portions of southeastern SD to central N this morning, in a zone of weak DCVA aloft superimposed on a broader area of low-level warm/moist advection above the surface. While an isolated, marginally severe hail report cannot be ruled out in another couple hours, the overall decreasing trend should continue as the LLJ likewise weakens through the remainder of the morning. Isolated to scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over western parts of the outlook area near the lee trough today, within a broad area of strong diurnal heating. Isolated development also may occur farther east near the warm front and greater low-level moisture, though weaker lift and stronger MLCINH are expected in that corridor than near the lee trough. Activity west of the front will move atop a deeply well-mixed boundary layer suitable for strong-severe downdrafts. Surface dewpoints mixing well down into the 40s to mid 50s will result in decreasing MLCAPE as MLCINH also weakens, with around 500-1000 J/kg expected in the most-probable area for storm formation. Buoyancy will increase eastward as mixing weakens, but capping strengthens, with a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE along and just east of the front. Considerable uncertainty exists how much of the lee- trough activity can aggregate cold pools and potentially utilize forced ascent eastward into the greater moisture, for longer and better organization. Outside the lee trough, forcing for convective-scale lift appears nebulous and poorly focused across the region, with considerable uncertainty remaining on preferred potential corridor(s) for greater severe concentration. One possibility is closer to a northern- stream mid/upper trough north of the international border, but still with uncertainty on the southern extent into the CONUS of any resulting MCS. These uncertainties are reflected in a wide range of convective distributions and intensities across the various convection-allowing guidance, as well as implied from precip fields in the deterministic synoptic models and their ensembles. As such, a broad marginal area is maintained for this outlook cycle, with embedded upgrade(s) possible if mesoscale trends and 12Z/later guidance come into clearer focus. ...Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley... Isolated to widely scattered, non-severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of southern MO, northwestern AR and extreme eastern OK, in a field of low-level WAA and weak DCVA. A related increase in convective coverage and intensity is possible farther east and southeast across portions of this region as the foregoing boundary layer diurnally destabilizes, with marginally severe gusts or hail possible in the strongest cells. One of the vorticity lobes embedded in the height weakness aloft, over eastern KS to central/eastern MO, is being enhanced by an MCV from prior/overnight convection now over southwestern MO. This feature will move slowly eastward today and may contribute to relatively maximized thunderstorm coverage in an increasingly unstable airmass from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley this afternoon. Rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) and diurnal heating should offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates to yield peak MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Weak low/middle-level flow and modest shear should limit organization enough that severe potential should remain isolated and poorly organized. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley, and over the northern and central Great Plains from late afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the northern-stream pattern is forecast in mid/ upper levels, as a persistent trough over the Great Lakes and vicinity moves eastward and weakens substantially. A height weakness will continue to extend from that area southwestward across the mid Mississippi Valley, Arklatex, and south TX, with several embedded/slow-moving vorticity lobes. Meanwhile, a broad area of difluent, zonal to northwesterly flow should continue over the central/northern Plains region, northeast of a prominent anticyclone shifting slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. At the surface, the 1Z analysis showed weak lows over northeastern MT and southwestern SD, along a quasistationary to slow-moving warm front drawn from southern AB to western SD, central/southeastern NE, central MO, and southern IL. The slightly better-defined MT low should move slowly eastward to northwestern ND by early evening, while the frontal zone to its southeast drifts eastward and northward over central SD, eastern NE, northeastern KS, and central/ northern MO. A lee trough -- initially drawn from western SD to eastern CO and the TX Panhandle -- should meander erratically near its present position today, with some adjustment by falling pressures related to strong surface heating. ...Northern/central Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are moving southeastward over portions of southeastern SD to central N this morning, in a zone of weak DCVA aloft superimposed on a broader area of low-level warm/moist advection above the surface. While an isolated, marginally severe hail report cannot be ruled out in another couple hours, the overall decreasing trend should continue as the LLJ likewise weakens through the remainder of the morning. Isolated to scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over western parts of the outlook area near the lee trough today, within a broad area of strong diurnal heating. Isolated development also may occur farther east near the warm front and greater low-level moisture, though weaker lift and stronger MLCINH are expected in that corridor than near the lee trough. Activity west of the front will move atop a deeply well-mixed boundary layer suitable for strong-severe downdrafts. Surface dewpoints mixing well down into the 40s to mid 50s will result in decreasing MLCAPE as MLCINH also weakens, with around 500-1000 J/kg expected in the most-probable area for storm formation. Buoyancy will increase eastward as mixing weakens, but capping strengthens, with a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE along and just east of the front. Considerable uncertainty exists how much of the lee- trough activity can aggregate cold pools and potentially utilize forced ascent eastward into the greater moisture, for longer and better organization. Outside the lee trough, forcing for convective-scale lift appears nebulous and poorly focused across the region, with considerable uncertainty remaining on preferred potential corridor(s) for greater severe concentration. One possibility is closer to a northern- stream mid/upper trough north of the international border, but still with uncertainty on the southern extent into the CONUS of any resulting MCS. These uncertainties are reflected in a wide range of convective distributions and intensities across the various convection-allowing guidance, as well as implied from precip fields in the deterministic synoptic models and their ensembles. As such, a broad marginal area is maintained for this outlook cycle, with embedded upgrade(s) possible if mesoscale trends and 12Z/later guidance come into clearer focus. ...Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley... Isolated to widely scattered, non-severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of southern MO, northwestern AR and extreme eastern OK, in a field of low-level WAA and weak DCVA. A related increase in convective coverage and intensity is possible farther east and southeast across portions of this region as the foregoing boundary layer diurnally destabilizes, with marginally severe gusts or hail possible in the strongest cells. One of the vorticity lobes embedded in the height weakness aloft, over eastern KS to central/eastern MO, is being enhanced by an MCV from prior/overnight convection now over southwestern MO. This feature will move slowly eastward today and may contribute to relatively maximized thunderstorm coverage in an increasingly unstable airmass from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley this afternoon. Rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) and diurnal heating should offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates to yield peak MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Weak low/middle-level flow and modest shear should limit organization enough that severe potential should remain isolated and poorly organized. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley, and over the northern and central Great Plains from late afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the northern-stream pattern is forecast in mid/ upper levels, as a persistent trough over the Great Lakes and vicinity moves eastward and weakens substantially. A height weakness will continue to extend from that area southwestward across the mid Mississippi Valley, Arklatex, and south TX, with several embedded/slow-moving vorticity lobes. Meanwhile, a broad area of difluent, zonal to northwesterly flow should continue over the central/northern Plains region, northeast of a prominent anticyclone shifting slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. At the surface, the 1Z analysis showed weak lows over northeastern MT and southwestern SD, along a quasistationary to slow-moving warm front drawn from southern AB to western SD, central/southeastern NE, central MO, and southern IL. The slightly better-defined MT low should move slowly eastward to northwestern ND by early evening, while the frontal zone to its southeast drifts eastward and northward over central SD, eastern NE, northeastern KS, and central/ northern MO. A lee trough -- initially drawn from western SD to eastern CO and the TX Panhandle -- should meander erratically near its present position today, with some adjustment by falling pressures related to strong surface heating. ...Northern/central Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are moving southeastward over portions of southeastern SD to central N this morning, in a zone of weak DCVA aloft superimposed on a broader area of low-level warm/moist advection above the surface. While an isolated, marginally severe hail report cannot be ruled out in another couple hours, the overall decreasing trend should continue as the LLJ likewise weakens through the remainder of the morning. Isolated to scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over western parts of the outlook area near the lee trough today, within a broad area of strong diurnal heating. Isolated development also may occur farther east near the warm front and greater low-level moisture, though weaker lift and stronger MLCINH are expected in that corridor than near the lee trough. Activity west of the front will move atop a deeply well-mixed boundary layer suitable for strong-severe downdrafts. Surface dewpoints mixing well down into the 40s to mid 50s will result in decreasing MLCAPE as MLCINH also weakens, with around 500-1000 J/kg expected in the most-probable area for storm formation. Buoyancy will increase eastward as mixing weakens, but capping strengthens, with a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE along and just east of the front. Considerable uncertainty exists how much of the lee- trough activity can aggregate cold pools and potentially utilize forced ascent eastward into the greater moisture, for longer and better organization. Outside the lee trough, forcing for convective-scale lift appears nebulous and poorly focused across the region, with considerable uncertainty remaining on preferred potential corridor(s) for greater severe concentration. One possibility is closer to a northern- stream mid/upper trough north of the international border, but still with uncertainty on the southern extent into the CONUS of any resulting MCS. These uncertainties are reflected in a wide range of convective distributions and intensities across the various convection-allowing guidance, as well as implied from precip fields in the deterministic synoptic models and their ensembles. As such, a broad marginal area is maintained for this outlook cycle, with embedded upgrade(s) possible if mesoscale trends and 12Z/later guidance come into clearer focus. ...Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley... Isolated to widely scattered, non-severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of southern MO, northwestern AR and extreme eastern OK, in a field of low-level WAA and weak DCVA. A related increase in convective coverage and intensity is possible farther east and southeast across portions of this region as the foregoing boundary layer diurnally destabilizes, with marginally severe gusts or hail possible in the strongest cells. One of the vorticity lobes embedded in the height weakness aloft, over eastern KS to central/eastern MO, is being enhanced by an MCV from prior/overnight convection now over southwestern MO. This feature will move slowly eastward today and may contribute to relatively maximized thunderstorm coverage in an increasingly unstable airmass from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley this afternoon. Rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) and diurnal heating should offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates to yield peak MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Weak low/middle-level flow and modest shear should limit organization enough that severe potential should remain isolated and poorly organized. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley, and over the northern and central Great Plains from late afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the northern-stream pattern is forecast in mid/ upper levels, as a persistent trough over the Great Lakes and vicinity moves eastward and weakens substantially. A height weakness will continue to extend from that area southwestward across the mid Mississippi Valley, Arklatex, and south TX, with several embedded/slow-moving vorticity lobes. Meanwhile, a broad area of difluent, zonal to northwesterly flow should continue over the central/northern Plains region, northeast of a prominent anticyclone shifting slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. At the surface, the 1Z analysis showed weak lows over northeastern MT and southwestern SD, along a quasistationary to slow-moving warm front drawn from southern AB to western SD, central/southeastern NE, central MO, and southern IL. The slightly better-defined MT low should move slowly eastward to northwestern ND by early evening, while the frontal zone to its southeast drifts eastward and northward over central SD, eastern NE, northeastern KS, and central/ northern MO. A lee trough -- initially drawn from western SD to eastern CO and the TX Panhandle -- should meander erratically near its present position today, with some adjustment by falling pressures related to strong surface heating. ...Northern/central Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are moving southeastward over portions of southeastern SD to central N this morning, in a zone of weak DCVA aloft superimposed on a broader area of low-level warm/moist advection above the surface. While an isolated, marginally severe hail report cannot be ruled out in another couple hours, the overall decreasing trend should continue as the LLJ likewise weakens through the remainder of the morning. Isolated to scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over western parts of the outlook area near the lee trough today, within a broad area of strong diurnal heating. Isolated development also may occur farther east near the warm front and greater low-level moisture, though weaker lift and stronger MLCINH are expected in that corridor than near the lee trough. Activity west of the front will move atop a deeply well-mixed boundary layer suitable for strong-severe downdrafts. Surface dewpoints mixing well down into the 40s to mid 50s will result in decreasing MLCAPE as MLCINH also weakens, with around 500-1000 J/kg expected in the most-probable area for storm formation. Buoyancy will increase eastward as mixing weakens, but capping strengthens, with a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE along and just east of the front. Considerable uncertainty exists how much of the lee- trough activity can aggregate cold pools and potentially utilize forced ascent eastward into the greater moisture, for longer and better organization. Outside the lee trough, forcing for convective-scale lift appears nebulous and poorly focused across the region, with considerable uncertainty remaining on preferred potential corridor(s) for greater severe concentration. One possibility is closer to a northern- stream mid/upper trough north of the international border, but still with uncertainty on the southern extent into the CONUS of any resulting MCS. These uncertainties are reflected in a wide range of convective distributions and intensities across the various convection-allowing guidance, as well as implied from precip fields in the deterministic synoptic models and their ensembles. As such, a broad marginal area is maintained for this outlook cycle, with embedded upgrade(s) possible if mesoscale trends and 12Z/later guidance come into clearer focus. ...Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley... Isolated to widely scattered, non-severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of southern MO, northwestern AR and extreme eastern OK, in a field of low-level WAA and weak DCVA. A related increase in convective coverage and intensity is possible farther east and southeast across portions of this region as the foregoing boundary layer diurnally destabilizes, with marginally severe gusts or hail possible in the strongest cells. One of the vorticity lobes embedded in the height weakness aloft, over eastern KS to central/eastern MO, is being enhanced by an MCV from prior/overnight convection now over southwestern MO. This feature will move slowly eastward today and may contribute to relatively maximized thunderstorm coverage in an increasingly unstable airmass from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley this afternoon. Rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) and diurnal heating should offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates to yield peak MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Weak low/middle-level flow and modest shear should limit organization enough that severe potential should remain isolated and poorly organized. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley, and over the northern and central Great Plains from late afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the northern-stream pattern is forecast in mid/ upper levels, as a persistent trough over the Great Lakes and vicinity moves eastward and weakens substantially. A height weakness will continue to extend from that area southwestward across the mid Mississippi Valley, Arklatex, and south TX, with several embedded/slow-moving vorticity lobes. Meanwhile, a broad area of difluent, zonal to northwesterly flow should continue over the central/northern Plains region, northeast of a prominent anticyclone shifting slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. At the surface, the 1Z analysis showed weak lows over northeastern MT and southwestern SD, along a quasistationary to slow-moving warm front drawn from southern AB to western SD, central/southeastern NE, central MO, and southern IL. The slightly better-defined MT low should move slowly eastward to northwestern ND by early evening, while the frontal zone to its southeast drifts eastward and northward over central SD, eastern NE, northeastern KS, and central/ northern MO. A lee trough -- initially drawn from western SD to eastern CO and the TX Panhandle -- should meander erratically near its present position today, with some adjustment by falling pressures related to strong surface heating. ...Northern/central Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are moving southeastward over portions of southeastern SD to central N this morning, in a zone of weak DCVA aloft superimposed on a broader area of low-level warm/moist advection above the surface. While an isolated, marginally severe hail report cannot be ruled out in another couple hours, the overall decreasing trend should continue as the LLJ likewise weakens through the remainder of the morning. Isolated to scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over western parts of the outlook area near the lee trough today, within a broad area of strong diurnal heating. Isolated development also may occur farther east near the warm front and greater low-level moisture, though weaker lift and stronger MLCINH are expected in that corridor than near the lee trough. Activity west of the front will move atop a deeply well-mixed boundary layer suitable for strong-severe downdrafts. Surface dewpoints mixing well down into the 40s to mid 50s will result in decreasing MLCAPE as MLCINH also weakens, with around 500-1000 J/kg expected in the most-probable area for storm formation. Buoyancy will increase eastward as mixing weakens, but capping strengthens, with a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE along and just east of the front. Considerable uncertainty exists how much of the lee- trough activity can aggregate cold pools and potentially utilize forced ascent eastward into the greater moisture, for longer and better organization. Outside the lee trough, forcing for convective-scale lift appears nebulous and poorly focused across the region, with considerable uncertainty remaining on preferred potential corridor(s) for greater severe concentration. One possibility is closer to a northern- stream mid/upper trough north of the international border, but still with uncertainty on the southern extent into the CONUS of any resulting MCS. These uncertainties are reflected in a wide range of convective distributions and intensities across the various convection-allowing guidance, as well as implied from precip fields in the deterministic synoptic models and their ensembles. As such, a broad marginal area is maintained for this outlook cycle, with embedded upgrade(s) possible if mesoscale trends and 12Z/later guidance come into clearer focus. ...Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley... Isolated to widely scattered, non-severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of southern MO, northwestern AR and extreme eastern OK, in a field of low-level WAA and weak DCVA. A related increase in convective coverage and intensity is possible farther east and southeast across portions of this region as the foregoing boundary layer diurnally destabilizes, with marginally severe gusts or hail possible in the strongest cells. One of the vorticity lobes embedded in the height weakness aloft, over eastern KS to central/eastern MO, is being enhanced by an MCV from prior/overnight convection now over southwestern MO. This feature will move slowly eastward today and may contribute to relatively maximized thunderstorm coverage in an increasingly unstable airmass from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley this afternoon. Rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) and diurnal heating should offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates to yield peak MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Weak low/middle-level flow and modest shear should limit organization enough that severe potential should remain isolated and poorly organized. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/12/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Pacific is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. The wave is expected
to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 mph during the next
few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to only be
marginally conducive and development, if any, should be slow to
occur when the wave moves into the central portion of the basin
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121115
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Off the South Carolina Coast:
A broad area of low pressure located about a hundred miles off the
coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds should limit any
development of this system before it moves inland over South
Carolina and North Carolina later today. However, the disturbance
could contribute to areas of heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding across coastal portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic
through tonight. For more information about the potential for heavy
rainfall, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and
your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Western CONUS upper ridging is forecast to persist through at least the middle of next week, with notable amplification anticipated on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Subtropical ridging will likely persist across the Southeast states during this time frame as well, while broadly cyclonic flow continues north of this subtropical ridging from the northern Plains to the Northeast. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will progress through the cyclonic flow across the north-central/northeast CONUS, moving from the Upper Midwest through the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday. Thunderstorms may be ongoing early D4/Monday across the Upper Midwest ahead of this shortwave, with some potential for these storms to continue progressing southeastward into the strong buoyancy expected downstream. Severe gusts could occur with the resulting convective line if this scenario is realized, and 15% severe probabilities were maintained for this outlook. The outlook area was shifted slightly northward to account for changes within the most recent guidance. Aforementioned shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward through the Ohio Valley and Northeast on D5/Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but shear will be modest and the severe-thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to be low. The cold front will likely continue southward/eastward on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday, but model guidance differs on the speed of its southward/eastward progression. Some limited severe potential may linger across the Northeast on D6/Wednesday if the slower frontal progression is realized. By D7/Thursday, the front will likely extend from northern southern Plains through the Mid MS and TN Valleys, and into the Mid-Atlantic, becoming displaced from the stronger westerly flow aloft. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Western CONUS upper ridging is forecast to persist through at least the middle of next week, with notable amplification anticipated on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Subtropical ridging will likely persist across the Southeast states during this time frame as well, while broadly cyclonic flow continues north of this subtropical ridging from the northern Plains to the Northeast. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will progress through the cyclonic flow across the north-central/northeast CONUS, moving from the Upper Midwest through the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday. Thunderstorms may be ongoing early D4/Monday across the Upper Midwest ahead of this shortwave, with some potential for these storms to continue progressing southeastward into the strong buoyancy expected downstream. Severe gusts could occur with the resulting convective line if this scenario is realized, and 15% severe probabilities were maintained for this outlook. The outlook area was shifted slightly northward to account for changes within the most recent guidance. Aforementioned shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward through the Ohio Valley and Northeast on D5/Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but shear will be modest and the severe-thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to be low. The cold front will likely continue southward/eastward on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday, but model guidance differs on the speed of its southward/eastward progression. Some limited severe potential may linger across the Northeast on D6/Wednesday if the slower frontal progression is realized. By D7/Thursday, the front will likely extend from northern southern Plains through the Mid MS and TN Valleys, and into the Mid-Atlantic, becoming displaced from the stronger westerly flow aloft. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Western CONUS upper ridging is forecast to persist through at least the middle of next week, with notable amplification anticipated on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Subtropical ridging will likely persist across the Southeast states during this time frame as well, while broadly cyclonic flow continues north of this subtropical ridging from the northern Plains to the Northeast. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will progress through the cyclonic flow across the north-central/northeast CONUS, moving from the Upper Midwest through the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday. Thunderstorms may be ongoing early D4/Monday across the Upper Midwest ahead of this shortwave, with some potential for these storms to continue progressing southeastward into the strong buoyancy expected downstream. Severe gusts could occur with the resulting convective line if this scenario is realized, and 15% severe probabilities were maintained for this outlook. The outlook area was shifted slightly northward to account for changes within the most recent guidance. Aforementioned shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward through the Ohio Valley and Northeast on D5/Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but shear will be modest and the severe-thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to be low. The cold front will likely continue southward/eastward on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday, but model guidance differs on the speed of its southward/eastward progression. Some limited severe potential may linger across the Northeast on D6/Wednesday if the slower frontal progression is realized. By D7/Thursday, the front will likely extend from northern southern Plains through the Mid MS and TN Valleys, and into the Mid-Atlantic, becoming displaced from the stronger westerly flow aloft. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Western CONUS upper ridging is forecast to persist through at least the middle of next week, with notable amplification anticipated on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Subtropical ridging will likely persist across the Southeast states during this time frame as well, while broadly cyclonic flow continues north of this subtropical ridging from the northern Plains to the Northeast. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will progress through the cyclonic flow across the north-central/northeast CONUS, moving from the Upper Midwest through the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday. Thunderstorms may be ongoing early D4/Monday across the Upper Midwest ahead of this shortwave, with some potential for these storms to continue progressing southeastward into the strong buoyancy expected downstream. Severe gusts could occur with the resulting convective line if this scenario is realized, and 15% severe probabilities were maintained for this outlook. The outlook area was shifted slightly northward to account for changes within the most recent guidance. Aforementioned shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward through the Ohio Valley and Northeast on D5/Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but shear will be modest and the severe-thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to be low. The cold front will likely continue southward/eastward on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday, but model guidance differs on the speed of its southward/eastward progression. Some limited severe potential may linger across the Northeast on D6/Wednesday if the slower frontal progression is realized. By D7/Thursday, the front will likely extend from northern southern Plains through the Mid MS and TN Valleys, and into the Mid-Atlantic, becoming displaced from the stronger westerly flow aloft. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Western CONUS upper ridging is forecast to persist through at least the middle of next week, with notable amplification anticipated on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Subtropical ridging will likely persist across the Southeast states during this time frame as well, while broadly cyclonic flow continues north of this subtropical ridging from the northern Plains to the Northeast. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will progress through the cyclonic flow across the north-central/northeast CONUS, moving from the Upper Midwest through the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday. Thunderstorms may be ongoing early D4/Monday across the Upper Midwest ahead of this shortwave, with some potential for these storms to continue progressing southeastward into the strong buoyancy expected downstream. Severe gusts could occur with the resulting convective line if this scenario is realized, and 15% severe probabilities were maintained for this outlook. The outlook area was shifted slightly northward to account for changes within the most recent guidance. Aforementioned shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward through the Ohio Valley and Northeast on D5/Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but shear will be modest and the severe-thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to be low. The cold front will likely continue southward/eastward on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday, but model guidance differs on the speed of its southward/eastward progression. Some limited severe potential may linger across the Northeast on D6/Wednesday if the slower frontal progression is realized. By D7/Thursday, the front will likely extend from northern southern Plains through the Mid MS and TN Valleys, and into the Mid-Atlantic, becoming displaced from the stronger westerly flow aloft. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Western CONUS upper ridging is forecast to persist through at least the middle of next week, with notable amplification anticipated on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Subtropical ridging will likely persist across the Southeast states during this time frame as well, while broadly cyclonic flow continues north of this subtropical ridging from the northern Plains to the Northeast. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will progress through the cyclonic flow across the north-central/northeast CONUS, moving from the Upper Midwest through the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday. Thunderstorms may be ongoing early D4/Monday across the Upper Midwest ahead of this shortwave, with some potential for these storms to continue progressing southeastward into the strong buoyancy expected downstream. Severe gusts could occur with the resulting convective line if this scenario is realized, and 15% severe probabilities were maintained for this outlook. The outlook area was shifted slightly northward to account for changes within the most recent guidance. Aforementioned shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward through the Ohio Valley and Northeast on D5/Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, but shear will be modest and the severe-thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to be low. The cold front will likely continue southward/eastward on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday, but model guidance differs on the speed of its southward/eastward progression. Some limited severe potential may linger across the Northeast on D6/Wednesday if the slower frontal progression is realized. By D7/Thursday, the front will likely extend from northern southern Plains through the Mid MS and TN Valleys, and into the Mid-Atlantic, becoming displaced from the stronger westerly flow aloft. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast be over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, with a belt of westerly flow aloft to its north extending across the northern tier of the CONUS (i.e. from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast). The upper ridging is expected to remain in place while a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs move quickly through the belt of westerly flow aloft. Subtropical ridging will continue to influence the sensible weather across the Southeast. Predictability issues limit the confidence in the surface pattern across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early Sunday morning, largely due to the influence of antecedent thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong, may be ongoing across the Upper Great Lakes region early Sunday morning. An outflow boundary associated with these storms may exist somewhere across the Upper Midwest. Given the lack of a well-defined shortwave trough throughout much of the period, low-level convergence and strong buoyancy along this boundary will likely provide the impetus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be strong enough for a few organized storm structures, but a largely outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated, with some potential for the development of a forward-propagating convective line. Damaging gusts are the primary threat with these afternoon/evening storms. A more amplified shortwave trough is expected to progress from the southern Canadian Prairie provinces into the northern Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Ascent attendant to this system is expected to lead to elevated thunderstorm development. Buoyancy and shear will be strong enough for organized storms capable of large hail and/or damaging gusts with any storms that do develop. Guidance varies slightly on the most likely location for these storms, largely due to variability in shortwave speed, but the most likely location appears to be from central North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. ..Mosier.. 07/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast be over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, with a belt of westerly flow aloft to its north extending across the northern tier of the CONUS (i.e. from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast). The upper ridging is expected to remain in place while a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs move quickly through the belt of westerly flow aloft. Subtropical ridging will continue to influence the sensible weather across the Southeast. Predictability issues limit the confidence in the surface pattern across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early Sunday morning, largely due to the influence of antecedent thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong, may be ongoing across the Upper Great Lakes region early Sunday morning. An outflow boundary associated with these storms may exist somewhere across the Upper Midwest. Given the lack of a well-defined shortwave trough throughout much of the period, low-level convergence and strong buoyancy along this boundary will likely provide the impetus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be strong enough for a few organized storm structures, but a largely outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated, with some potential for the development of a forward-propagating convective line. Damaging gusts are the primary threat with these afternoon/evening storms. A more amplified shortwave trough is expected to progress from the southern Canadian Prairie provinces into the northern Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Ascent attendant to this system is expected to lead to elevated thunderstorm development. Buoyancy and shear will be strong enough for organized storms capable of large hail and/or damaging gusts with any storms that do develop. Guidance varies slightly on the most likely location for these storms, largely due to variability in shortwave speed, but the most likely location appears to be from central North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. ..Mosier.. 07/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast be over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, with a belt of westerly flow aloft to its north extending across the northern tier of the CONUS (i.e. from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast). The upper ridging is expected to remain in place while a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs move quickly through the belt of westerly flow aloft. Subtropical ridging will continue to influence the sensible weather across the Southeast. Predictability issues limit the confidence in the surface pattern across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early Sunday morning, largely due to the influence of antecedent thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong, may be ongoing across the Upper Great Lakes region early Sunday morning. An outflow boundary associated with these storms may exist somewhere across the Upper Midwest. Given the lack of a well-defined shortwave trough throughout much of the period, low-level convergence and strong buoyancy along this boundary will likely provide the impetus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be strong enough for a few organized storm structures, but a largely outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated, with some potential for the development of a forward-propagating convective line. Damaging gusts are the primary threat with these afternoon/evening storms. A more amplified shortwave trough is expected to progress from the southern Canadian Prairie provinces into the northern Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Ascent attendant to this system is expected to lead to elevated thunderstorm development. Buoyancy and shear will be strong enough for organized storms capable of large hail and/or damaging gusts with any storms that do develop. Guidance varies slightly on the most likely location for these storms, largely due to variability in shortwave speed, but the most likely location appears to be from central North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. ..Mosier.. 07/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast be over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, with a belt of westerly flow aloft to its north extending across the northern tier of the CONUS (i.e. from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast). The upper ridging is expected to remain in place while a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs move quickly through the belt of westerly flow aloft. Subtropical ridging will continue to influence the sensible weather across the Southeast. Predictability issues limit the confidence in the surface pattern across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early Sunday morning, largely due to the influence of antecedent thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong, may be ongoing across the Upper Great Lakes region early Sunday morning. An outflow boundary associated with these storms may exist somewhere across the Upper Midwest. Given the lack of a well-defined shortwave trough throughout much of the period, low-level convergence and strong buoyancy along this boundary will likely provide the impetus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be strong enough for a few organized storm structures, but a largely outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated, with some potential for the development of a forward-propagating convective line. Damaging gusts are the primary threat with these afternoon/evening storms. A more amplified shortwave trough is expected to progress from the southern Canadian Prairie provinces into the northern Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Ascent attendant to this system is expected to lead to elevated thunderstorm development. Buoyancy and shear will be strong enough for organized storms capable of large hail and/or damaging gusts with any storms that do develop. Guidance varies slightly on the most likely location for these storms, largely due to variability in shortwave speed, but the most likely location appears to be from central North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. ..Mosier.. 07/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast be over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, with a belt of westerly flow aloft to its north extending across the northern tier of the CONUS (i.e. from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast). The upper ridging is expected to remain in place while a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs move quickly through the belt of westerly flow aloft. Subtropical ridging will continue to influence the sensible weather across the Southeast. Predictability issues limit the confidence in the surface pattern across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early Sunday morning, largely due to the influence of antecedent thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong, may be ongoing across the Upper Great Lakes region early Sunday morning. An outflow boundary associated with these storms may exist somewhere across the Upper Midwest. Given the lack of a well-defined shortwave trough throughout much of the period, low-level convergence and strong buoyancy along this boundary will likely provide the impetus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be strong enough for a few organized storm structures, but a largely outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated, with some potential for the development of a forward-propagating convective line. Damaging gusts are the primary threat with these afternoon/evening storms. A more amplified shortwave trough is expected to progress from the southern Canadian Prairie provinces into the northern Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Ascent attendant to this system is expected to lead to elevated thunderstorm development. Buoyancy and shear will be strong enough for organized storms capable of large hail and/or damaging gusts with any storms that do develop. Guidance varies slightly on the most likely location for these storms, largely due to variability in shortwave speed, but the most likely location appears to be from central North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. ..Mosier.. 07/12/2024 Read more

MD 1583 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1583 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri...Far Northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120638Z - 120845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail will likely continue for a few more hours from southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri and far northeast Oklahoma. The convective cluster is expected to remain too disorganized for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, scattered thunderstorms have developed across southeast Kansas, with embedded pulse hail events. This activity is located along the eastern edge of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storms appear to be supported by a strengthening low-level jet, that is in the 30 to 35 knot range according the RAP. As this feature continues, thunderstorm development will likely persist. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in far southeast Kansas have 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km, and enough deep-layer shear for an isolated large-hail threat. The hail threat is expected continue for a few more hours, before the storm complex gradually diminishes. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37739560 36849546 36519515 36439466 36529416 36789381 37349366 37869369 38329393 38539429 38579466 38549506 38399536 38139555 37739560 Read more