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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Locally elevated conditions may develop this afternoon over the southern portions of the Sierras, where relative humidities of 10-15% will overlap with 15-20 MPH sustained surface winds (with locally higher gusts). However, the threat appears too localized to warrant highlights at this time. Elsewhere, no further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 Read more

Blanco enacted Stage 4 water restrictions on July 9 due to critical water shortage conditions. KEYE-TV CBS Austin (Texas), July 10, 2024

Blowing Rock entered Stage 1 voluntary water restrictions due to drought and the town manager’s recommendation. Watauga Democrat (Boone, N.C.), July 10, 2024