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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will gradually shunt eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley areas this weekend into the middle of next week. Multiple pronounced mid-level shortwave troughs and associated 500 mb speed maxima will pivot around the upper ridge and traverse the Upper MS Valley into the Northeast this weekend through early to mid next week. With adequate low-level moisture and overall instability preceding the mid-level troughs, severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper MS Valley to the Northeast at least this weekend, possibly into early next week. ...Days 4-5 (Saturday-Sunday) - Upper MS Valley... A 500 mb speed max will traverse the U.S./Canada border on Day 4 (Saturday) as surface lee troughing advects dewpoints well into the 70s F across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. An EML will also precede the mid-level speed max and overspread the rich low-level moisture, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MUCAPE per latest medium-range guidance consensus. Forcing for ascent will be modest and capping will be present, though the approach of the speed max may support convective initiation across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the moment, too much disagreement exists between medium-range guidance members regarding the placement of convection to support the addition of severe probabilities for Saturday. Despite some timing issues, medium-range guidance is in better agreement in depicting a mid-level impulse and accompanying wave of deep-moist convection traversing the Upper MS Valley area on Day 5 (Sunday). There is some concern that preceding convection from Day 4 could promote stability over portions of the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, both the ECMWF and GFS agree that the EML will continue regenerate from the southwest, focusing strong to potentially extreme instability into portions of this region. At the moment, it appears the best chance for severe convection (including the possibility of an organized, sustained MCS) would be over central MN into WI Sunday afternoon or evening, warranting the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities. However, these probabilities may need to be considerably adjusted based on timing/placement changes of key mesoscale features, or to account for any impacts from preceding convection in later outlooks. ...Days 6-8 (Monday-Wednesday) - Northern Plains to the Northeast... The first mid-level impulse will eject into the Northeast on Day 6 (Monday). Some instability will precede this impulse, and medium-range guidance suggests that convective precipitation is possible. However, given limited deep-layer shear and ascent, confidence is too low to provide severe probabilities. Meanwhile, medium-range guidance consensus hints at convective development over parts of the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Monday as a second mid-level impulse impinges on the region. Though guidance consensus shows adequate overlapping shear and instability to support severe storms, relatively weak forcing for ascent and convective signals in the guidance preclude severe probabilities. By Days 7-8 (Tuesday-Wednesday), the second approaching mid-level trough will amplify while overspreading the Great Lakes, supporting a southward-surging cold front from the MS Valley into the northeast. Forcing for ascent and accompanying buoyancy suggests severe thunderstorms are possible from the MS Valley to New England. However, details on frontal timing and placement this far in advance are too nebulous for severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will gradually shunt eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley areas this weekend into the middle of next week. Multiple pronounced mid-level shortwave troughs and associated 500 mb speed maxima will pivot around the upper ridge and traverse the Upper MS Valley into the Northeast this weekend through early to mid next week. With adequate low-level moisture and overall instability preceding the mid-level troughs, severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper MS Valley to the Northeast at least this weekend, possibly into early next week. ...Days 4-5 (Saturday-Sunday) - Upper MS Valley... A 500 mb speed max will traverse the U.S./Canada border on Day 4 (Saturday) as surface lee troughing advects dewpoints well into the 70s F across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. An EML will also precede the mid-level speed max and overspread the rich low-level moisture, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MUCAPE per latest medium-range guidance consensus. Forcing for ascent will be modest and capping will be present, though the approach of the speed max may support convective initiation across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the moment, too much disagreement exists between medium-range guidance members regarding the placement of convection to support the addition of severe probabilities for Saturday. Despite some timing issues, medium-range guidance is in better agreement in depicting a mid-level impulse and accompanying wave of deep-moist convection traversing the Upper MS Valley area on Day 5 (Sunday). There is some concern that preceding convection from Day 4 could promote stability over portions of the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, both the ECMWF and GFS agree that the EML will continue regenerate from the southwest, focusing strong to potentially extreme instability into portions of this region. At the moment, it appears the best chance for severe convection (including the possibility of an organized, sustained MCS) would be over central MN into WI Sunday afternoon or evening, warranting the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities. However, these probabilities may need to be considerably adjusted based on timing/placement changes of key mesoscale features, or to account for any impacts from preceding convection in later outlooks. ...Days 6-8 (Monday-Wednesday) - Northern Plains to the Northeast... The first mid-level impulse will eject into the Northeast on Day 6 (Monday). Some instability will precede this impulse, and medium-range guidance suggests that convective precipitation is possible. However, given limited deep-layer shear and ascent, confidence is too low to provide severe probabilities. Meanwhile, medium-range guidance consensus hints at convective development over parts of the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Monday as a second mid-level impulse impinges on the region. Though guidance consensus shows adequate overlapping shear and instability to support severe storms, relatively weak forcing for ascent and convective signals in the guidance preclude severe probabilities. By Days 7-8 (Tuesday-Wednesday), the second approaching mid-level trough will amplify while overspreading the Great Lakes, supporting a southward-surging cold front from the MS Valley into the northeast. Forcing for ascent and accompanying buoyancy suggests severe thunderstorms are possible from the MS Valley to New England. However, details on frontal timing and placement this far in advance are too nebulous for severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will gradually shunt eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley areas this weekend into the middle of next week. Multiple pronounced mid-level shortwave troughs and associated 500 mb speed maxima will pivot around the upper ridge and traverse the Upper MS Valley into the Northeast this weekend through early to mid next week. With adequate low-level moisture and overall instability preceding the mid-level troughs, severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper MS Valley to the Northeast at least this weekend, possibly into early next week. ...Days 4-5 (Saturday-Sunday) - Upper MS Valley... A 500 mb speed max will traverse the U.S./Canada border on Day 4 (Saturday) as surface lee troughing advects dewpoints well into the 70s F across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. An EML will also precede the mid-level speed max and overspread the rich low-level moisture, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MUCAPE per latest medium-range guidance consensus. Forcing for ascent will be modest and capping will be present, though the approach of the speed max may support convective initiation across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the moment, too much disagreement exists between medium-range guidance members regarding the placement of convection to support the addition of severe probabilities for Saturday. Despite some timing issues, medium-range guidance is in better agreement in depicting a mid-level impulse and accompanying wave of deep-moist convection traversing the Upper MS Valley area on Day 5 (Sunday). There is some concern that preceding convection from Day 4 could promote stability over portions of the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, both the ECMWF and GFS agree that the EML will continue regenerate from the southwest, focusing strong to potentially extreme instability into portions of this region. At the moment, it appears the best chance for severe convection (including the possibility of an organized, sustained MCS) would be over central MN into WI Sunday afternoon or evening, warranting the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities. However, these probabilities may need to be considerably adjusted based on timing/placement changes of key mesoscale features, or to account for any impacts from preceding convection in later outlooks. ...Days 6-8 (Monday-Wednesday) - Northern Plains to the Northeast... The first mid-level impulse will eject into the Northeast on Day 6 (Monday). Some instability will precede this impulse, and medium-range guidance suggests that convective precipitation is possible. However, given limited deep-layer shear and ascent, confidence is too low to provide severe probabilities. Meanwhile, medium-range guidance consensus hints at convective development over parts of the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Monday as a second mid-level impulse impinges on the region. Though guidance consensus shows adequate overlapping shear and instability to support severe storms, relatively weak forcing for ascent and convective signals in the guidance preclude severe probabilities. By Days 7-8 (Tuesday-Wednesday), the second approaching mid-level trough will amplify while overspreading the Great Lakes, supporting a southward-surging cold front from the MS Valley into the northeast. Forcing for ascent and accompanying buoyancy suggests severe thunderstorms are possible from the MS Valley to New England. However, details on frontal timing and placement this far in advance are too nebulous for severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will gradually shunt eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley areas this weekend into the middle of next week. Multiple pronounced mid-level shortwave troughs and associated 500 mb speed maxima will pivot around the upper ridge and traverse the Upper MS Valley into the Northeast this weekend through early to mid next week. With adequate low-level moisture and overall instability preceding the mid-level troughs, severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper MS Valley to the Northeast at least this weekend, possibly into early next week. ...Days 4-5 (Saturday-Sunday) - Upper MS Valley... A 500 mb speed max will traverse the U.S./Canada border on Day 4 (Saturday) as surface lee troughing advects dewpoints well into the 70s F across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. An EML will also precede the mid-level speed max and overspread the rich low-level moisture, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MUCAPE per latest medium-range guidance consensus. Forcing for ascent will be modest and capping will be present, though the approach of the speed max may support convective initiation across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the moment, too much disagreement exists between medium-range guidance members regarding the placement of convection to support the addition of severe probabilities for Saturday. Despite some timing issues, medium-range guidance is in better agreement in depicting a mid-level impulse and accompanying wave of deep-moist convection traversing the Upper MS Valley area on Day 5 (Sunday). There is some concern that preceding convection from Day 4 could promote stability over portions of the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, both the ECMWF and GFS agree that the EML will continue regenerate from the southwest, focusing strong to potentially extreme instability into portions of this region. At the moment, it appears the best chance for severe convection (including the possibility of an organized, sustained MCS) would be over central MN into WI Sunday afternoon or evening, warranting the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities. However, these probabilities may need to be considerably adjusted based on timing/placement changes of key mesoscale features, or to account for any impacts from preceding convection in later outlooks. ...Days 6-8 (Monday-Wednesday) - Northern Plains to the Northeast... The first mid-level impulse will eject into the Northeast on Day 6 (Monday). Some instability will precede this impulse, and medium-range guidance suggests that convective precipitation is possible. However, given limited deep-layer shear and ascent, confidence is too low to provide severe probabilities. Meanwhile, medium-range guidance consensus hints at convective development over parts of the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Monday as a second mid-level impulse impinges on the region. Though guidance consensus shows adequate overlapping shear and instability to support severe storms, relatively weak forcing for ascent and convective signals in the guidance preclude severe probabilities. By Days 7-8 (Tuesday-Wednesday), the second approaching mid-level trough will amplify while overspreading the Great Lakes, supporting a southward-surging cold front from the MS Valley into the northeast. Forcing for ascent and accompanying buoyancy suggests severe thunderstorms are possible from the MS Valley to New England. However, details on frontal timing and placement this far in advance are too nebulous for severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will gradually shunt eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley areas this weekend into the middle of next week. Multiple pronounced mid-level shortwave troughs and associated 500 mb speed maxima will pivot around the upper ridge and traverse the Upper MS Valley into the Northeast this weekend through early to mid next week. With adequate low-level moisture and overall instability preceding the mid-level troughs, severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper MS Valley to the Northeast at least this weekend, possibly into early next week. ...Days 4-5 (Saturday-Sunday) - Upper MS Valley... A 500 mb speed max will traverse the U.S./Canada border on Day 4 (Saturday) as surface lee troughing advects dewpoints well into the 70s F across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. An EML will also precede the mid-level speed max and overspread the rich low-level moisture, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MUCAPE per latest medium-range guidance consensus. Forcing for ascent will be modest and capping will be present, though the approach of the speed max may support convective initiation across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the moment, too much disagreement exists between medium-range guidance members regarding the placement of convection to support the addition of severe probabilities for Saturday. Despite some timing issues, medium-range guidance is in better agreement in depicting a mid-level impulse and accompanying wave of deep-moist convection traversing the Upper MS Valley area on Day 5 (Sunday). There is some concern that preceding convection from Day 4 could promote stability over portions of the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, both the ECMWF and GFS agree that the EML will continue regenerate from the southwest, focusing strong to potentially extreme instability into portions of this region. At the moment, it appears the best chance for severe convection (including the possibility of an organized, sustained MCS) would be over central MN into WI Sunday afternoon or evening, warranting the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities. However, these probabilities may need to be considerably adjusted based on timing/placement changes of key mesoscale features, or to account for any impacts from preceding convection in later outlooks. ...Days 6-8 (Monday-Wednesday) - Northern Plains to the Northeast... The first mid-level impulse will eject into the Northeast on Day 6 (Monday). Some instability will precede this impulse, and medium-range guidance suggests that convective precipitation is possible. However, given limited deep-layer shear and ascent, confidence is too low to provide severe probabilities. Meanwhile, medium-range guidance consensus hints at convective development over parts of the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Monday as a second mid-level impulse impinges on the region. Though guidance consensus shows adequate overlapping shear and instability to support severe storms, relatively weak forcing for ascent and convective signals in the guidance preclude severe probabilities. By Days 7-8 (Tuesday-Wednesday), the second approaching mid-level trough will amplify while overspreading the Great Lakes, supporting a southward-surging cold front from the MS Valley into the northeast. Forcing for ascent and accompanying buoyancy suggests severe thunderstorms are possible from the MS Valley to New England. However, details on frontal timing and placement this far in advance are too nebulous for severe probabilities at this time. Read more

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

Crops in West Virginia were struggling for lack of rain. Farmers with irrigation capability were better off than those without it. WVNS-TV Channel 59 Bluefield (W.V.), July 9, 2024

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe potential currently appears too low to highlight with severe probabilities this outlook. ...Synopsis... A pair of low-amplitude mid-level troughs will traverse the Northeast and Upper MS Valley as an upper-level anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West, into the Plains on Day 3 (Friday). Surface lee troughing ahead of the MS Valley mid-level trough will support a broad fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath an eastward-advecting EML plume. At least mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support strong buoyancy (i.e. 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) across much of the Upper MS Valley by afternoon peak heating. Given the overall low-amplitude nature of the mid-level trough overspreading the region, deep-layer shear and ascent for organized convection are not overly strong (hence no severe probabilities introduced this outlook). Nonetheless, the degree of instability suggests that any storms that can form in this environment could at least be pulse-severe in nature. The 00Z ECMWF also appears to show a southward-surging MCS across the international border into the Upper MS Valley sometime after sunset. If guidance consensus shows a more organized convective scenario over the Upper MS Valley, severe probabilities may need to be introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe potential currently appears too low to highlight with severe probabilities this outlook. ...Synopsis... A pair of low-amplitude mid-level troughs will traverse the Northeast and Upper MS Valley as an upper-level anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West, into the Plains on Day 3 (Friday). Surface lee troughing ahead of the MS Valley mid-level trough will support a broad fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath an eastward-advecting EML plume. At least mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support strong buoyancy (i.e. 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) across much of the Upper MS Valley by afternoon peak heating. Given the overall low-amplitude nature of the mid-level trough overspreading the region, deep-layer shear and ascent for organized convection are not overly strong (hence no severe probabilities introduced this outlook). Nonetheless, the degree of instability suggests that any storms that can form in this environment could at least be pulse-severe in nature. The 00Z ECMWF also appears to show a southward-surging MCS across the international border into the Upper MS Valley sometime after sunset. If guidance consensus shows a more organized convective scenario over the Upper MS Valley, severe probabilities may need to be introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe potential currently appears too low to highlight with severe probabilities this outlook. ...Synopsis... A pair of low-amplitude mid-level troughs will traverse the Northeast and Upper MS Valley as an upper-level anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West, into the Plains on Day 3 (Friday). Surface lee troughing ahead of the MS Valley mid-level trough will support a broad fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath an eastward-advecting EML plume. At least mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support strong buoyancy (i.e. 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) across much of the Upper MS Valley by afternoon peak heating. Given the overall low-amplitude nature of the mid-level trough overspreading the region, deep-layer shear and ascent for organized convection are not overly strong (hence no severe probabilities introduced this outlook). Nonetheless, the degree of instability suggests that any storms that can form in this environment could at least be pulse-severe in nature. The 00Z ECMWF also appears to show a southward-surging MCS across the international border into the Upper MS Valley sometime after sunset. If guidance consensus shows a more organized convective scenario over the Upper MS Valley, severe probabilities may need to be introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe potential currently appears too low to highlight with severe probabilities this outlook. ...Synopsis... A pair of low-amplitude mid-level troughs will traverse the Northeast and Upper MS Valley as an upper-level anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West, into the Plains on Day 3 (Friday). Surface lee troughing ahead of the MS Valley mid-level trough will support a broad fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath an eastward-advecting EML plume. At least mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support strong buoyancy (i.e. 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) across much of the Upper MS Valley by afternoon peak heating. Given the overall low-amplitude nature of the mid-level trough overspreading the region, deep-layer shear and ascent for organized convection are not overly strong (hence no severe probabilities introduced this outlook). Nonetheless, the degree of instability suggests that any storms that can form in this environment could at least be pulse-severe in nature. The 00Z ECMWF also appears to show a southward-surging MCS across the international border into the Upper MS Valley sometime after sunset. If guidance consensus shows a more organized convective scenario over the Upper MS Valley, severe probabilities may need to be introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ..Thornton.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ..Thornton.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ..Thornton.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ..Thornton.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Corn was nearing tasseling in Rockingham County and urgently needed rain in the next couple of weeks. Late season soybeans were just being planted and also needed rain. Pumpkins planted one month ago ought to be about four times bigger than they were, which indicated a large yield reduction. WHSV (Harrisonburg, Va.), July 9, 2024

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft will spread across the northern periphery of the western US ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly surface flow along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions are expected, as afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. A few dry thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern Arizona. Fuels within this region remain near or below the 50th percentile of ERC, precluding the need to highlight areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more