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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE MKL TO 25 E PAH TO 40 E MDH TO 10 WSW SLO. ..LYONS..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC047-059-065-069-081-101-159-165-185-191-193-092240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JEFFERSON LAWRENCE RICHLAND SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-043-047-051-055-061-071-077- 079-083-093-101-105-115-117-123-125-129-137-143-147-155-163-173- 175-092240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD FRANKLIN GIBSON GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE OHIO Read more

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

MD 1565 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Areas affected...western/central Kentucky and adjacent portions of southeastern Illinois/southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091839Z - 092045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Potential for supercells posing a risk for tornadoes appears likely to increase through 5-7 PM EDT, particularly near the Ohio River from Evansville/Owensboro through the Greater Louisville area. DISCUSSION...Beryl's remnant surface low is currently in the process of migrating east-northeastward across southeastern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley, with a zone of strengthening differential surface heating becoming better defined near the Ohio River downstream toward the Greater Cincinnati area. South of this zone, boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing, supported by both insolation and slowly increasing moisture. The increasingly buoyant low-level environment is supporting the development of showers and isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorms, but this is occurring beneath a notably warm and warming mid-level environment, which will tend to slow, if not suppress, intensifying convective development. Into the 21-23Z time frame, in the peaking boundary-layer instability, latest Rapid Refresh suggests that a relatively minimum in mid-level inhibition may linger near the Ohio River, roughly from Evansville IN/Owensboro Ky through the Greater Louisville area, near the nose of the stronger southerly flow around 850 mb associated with Beryl. Although this jet streak is forecast to weak some, speeds on the order of 30+ kt appear likely to still contribute to sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, particularly along or just south of the differential heating zone. Given dynamic forcing associated with occasionally strengthening low-level mesocyclones, and the near-surface buoyancy associated with the high boundary-layer dew points (increasing to 75+ F), low-level upward accelerations may become increasingly conducive to tornadic potential in evolving supercell structures. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 37748853 38258783 38588668 38588480 37518524 36938580 36488720 36598814 37748853 Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MKL TO 25 N PAH TO 15 E MDH TO 30 W MVN. ..LYONS..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC047-055-059-065-069-081-101-127-151-159-165-185-191-193-199- 092140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MASSAC POPE RICHLAND SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-043-047-051-055-061-071-077- 079-083-093-101-105-115-117-123-125-129-137-143-147-155-163-173- 175-092140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD FRANKLIN GIBSON GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more