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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible across the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur this evening from southern Kentucky to southern Lake Erie. ...Lower Ohio Valley... The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl are currently located from the far southern Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing from southern Indiana into west-central Kentucky. A few discrete storms are located ahead of the line further to the east into central Kentucky. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate instability across south-central Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will help maintain thunderstorm development this evening. The WSR-88D VWP at Louisville, KY currently has 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 370 m2/s2. This shear environment will be favorable for rotating cells with an isolated tornado threat this evening. The threat should gradually shift eastward into east-central Kentucky and southwest Ohio later this evening. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible across the Ohio Valley and far southern Great Lakes this evening into tonight as the remnants of Beryl move northeastward. ..Broyles.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible across the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur this evening from southern Kentucky to southern Lake Erie. ...Lower Ohio Valley... The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl are currently located from the far southern Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing from southern Indiana into west-central Kentucky. A few discrete storms are located ahead of the line further to the east into central Kentucky. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate instability across south-central Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will help maintain thunderstorm development this evening. The WSR-88D VWP at Louisville, KY currently has 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 370 m2/s2. This shear environment will be favorable for rotating cells with an isolated tornado threat this evening. The threat should gradually shift eastward into east-central Kentucky and southwest Ohio later this evening. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible across the Ohio Valley and far southern Great Lakes this evening into tonight as the remnants of Beryl move northeastward. ..Broyles.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible across the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur this evening from southern Kentucky to southern Lake Erie. ...Lower Ohio Valley... The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl are currently located from the far southern Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing from southern Indiana into west-central Kentucky. A few discrete storms are located ahead of the line further to the east into central Kentucky. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate instability across south-central Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will help maintain thunderstorm development this evening. The WSR-88D VWP at Louisville, KY currently has 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 370 m2/s2. This shear environment will be favorable for rotating cells with an isolated tornado threat this evening. The threat should gradually shift eastward into east-central Kentucky and southwest Ohio later this evening. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible across the Ohio Valley and far southern Great Lakes this evening into tonight as the remnants of Beryl move northeastward. ..Broyles.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible across the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur this evening from southern Kentucky to southern Lake Erie. ...Lower Ohio Valley... The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl are currently located from the far southern Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing from southern Indiana into west-central Kentucky. A few discrete storms are located ahead of the line further to the east into central Kentucky. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate instability across south-central Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will help maintain thunderstorm development this evening. The WSR-88D VWP at Louisville, KY currently has 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 370 m2/s2. This shear environment will be favorable for rotating cells with an isolated tornado threat this evening. The threat should gradually shift eastward into east-central Kentucky and southwest Ohio later this evening. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible across the Ohio Valley and far southern Great Lakes this evening into tonight as the remnants of Beryl move northeastward. ..Broyles.. 07/10/2024 Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BNA TO 20 NW BWG TO 30 ENE OWB TO 30 SSW BMG TO 25 W BMG. ..THORNTON..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-013-019-025-029-031-041-043-047-055-061-071-077-079-093- 105-115-117-123-137-139-143-145-155-161-175-100140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DEARBORN DECATUR FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS LAWRENCE MONROE OHIO ORANGE PERRY RIPLEY RUSH SCOTT SHELBY SWITZERLAND UNION WASHINGTON KYC001-003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-029-037-041-045-049-053- 057-061-067-073-077-079-081-085-087-093-097-099-103-111-113-117- 123-137-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-185-187-191-207-209-211-213- 215-217-223-227-229-239-100140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BNA TO 20 NW BWG TO 30 ENE OWB TO 30 SSW BMG TO 25 W BMG. ..THORNTON..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-013-019-025-029-031-041-043-047-055-061-071-077-079-093- 105-115-117-123-137-139-143-145-155-161-175-100140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DEARBORN DECATUR FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS LAWRENCE MONROE OHIO ORANGE PERRY RIPLEY RUSH SCOTT SHELBY SWITZERLAND UNION WASHINGTON KYC001-003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-029-037-041-045-049-053- 057-061-067-073-077-079-081-085-087-093-097-099-103-111-113-117- 123-137-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-185-187-191-207-209-211-213- 215-217-223-227-229-239-100140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1566 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 516... FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Areas affected...northern Kentucky...southern Indiana...far southwestern Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 516... Valid 092242Z - 100015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 516 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues within WW516. DISCUSSION...Supercells have been ongoing along and near the warm front extending across northern Kentucky into southern Indiana. One ongoing supercell north of Evansville, IN near Johnson, IN has produced multiple tornadoes across northern Kentucky into southern Indiana. A more narrow favorable corridor of tornado threat should be maintained in the next few hours across the Indiana/Kentucky border along the Ohio River. Within this region, the 850 mb jet will increase and subsequently contribute to the most favorable region of effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2. Any semi-discrete cells that can track northward/northwestward into this region will likely take advantage of more favorable low-level SRH, taking on supercell characteristics and potential for tornadoes as they track near the warm front. This corridor will shift northeastward through the evening across southern Indiana and eventually southwestern Ohio through time. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 38418761 38698753 38988725 39158690 39288635 39328602 39338571 39358551 39478493 39498450 39348438 38878444 37648501 37328512 36988633 37138710 37218725 37588760 38418761 Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CSV TO 30 E CKV TO 20 ENE HOP TO OWB TO 20 NNE EVV TO 50 N EVV TO 40 SSE MTO. ..LYONS..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC033-100040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-043-047-051-055-061-071-077- 079-083-093-101-105-115-117-123-125-137-139-143-145-147-153-155- 173-175-100040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD FRANKLIN GIBSON GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE OHIO ORANGE PERRY PIKE RIPLEY RUSH SCOTT Read more

MD 1566 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 516... FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Areas affected...northern Kentucky...southern Indiana...far southwestern Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 516... Valid 092242Z - 100015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 516 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues within WW516. DISCUSSION...Supercells have been ongoing along and near the warm front extending across northern Kentucky into southern Indiana. One ongoing supercell north of Evansville, IN near Johnson, IN has produced multiple tornadoes across northern Kentucky into southern Indiana. A more narrow favorable corridor of tornado threat should be maintained in the next few hours across the Indiana/Kentucky border along the Ohio River. Within this region, the 850 mb jet will increase and subsequently contribute to the most favorable region of effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2. Any semi-discrete cells that can track northward/northwestward into this region will likely take advantage of more favorable low-level SRH, taking on supercell characteristics and potential for tornadoes as they track near the warm front. This corridor will shift northeastward through the evening across southern Indiana and eventually southwestern Ohio through time. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 38418761 38698753 38988725 39158690 39288635 39328602 39338571 39358551 39478493 39498450 39348438 38878444 37648501 37328512 36988633 37138710 37218725 37588760 38418761 Read more

WW 516 TORNADO IL IN KY OH TN 091905Z - 100400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Kentucky Southwest Ohio Middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A very moist environment and the remnants of Beryl, and its strong low-level winds, will be favorable for rotating storms capable of tornadoes, and possibly localized wind damage. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Paducah KY to 15 miles east northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092325
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Beryl, located inland over southern Illinois.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 9 22:34:12 UTC 2024.

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MSL TO 30 NNW HOP TO 20 W EVV TO 35 NW EVV TO 30 E SLO. ..LYONS..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC033-047-101-159-185-092340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD EDWARDS LAWRENCE RICHLAND WABASH INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-043-047-051-055-061-071-077- 079-083-093-101-105-115-117-123-125-129-137-143-147-153-155-163- 173-175-092340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD FRANKLIN GIBSON GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE OHIO ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY RIPLEY SCOTT Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Beginning D3/Thursday into D4/Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Western US ridge, resulting in a slight amplification of the pattern. This amplification will result in the intensification of a meridional mid-level jet over California, as well as weaker zonal jet over Pacific Northwest. There is some disagreement in the forecast about the magnitude and orientation of the jet features, but there is overall agreement in the trough moving into northern California by D5/Saturday, and into the Pacific Northwest by D6/Sunday. ...South Central Idaho... As the west-coast trough approaches the upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin, slight intensification of westerly flow across Eastern Oregon and into Southern Idaho is anticipated, resulting in dry/breezy conditions reaching the surface across the Snake River Plain. Forecast wind speeds did not warrant the inclusion of higher probabilities at this time, but a 40% Critical highlight was maintained. ...Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, into Northern California and Nevada... Beginning D4/Friday, the northerly transport of moisture along the western periphery of the ridge makes it into northern California and southern Oregon, bringing with it some early chances of dry thunderstorms. However, enough uncertainty in the quality of the early onset moisture precludes the addition of Dry Thunder highlights at this time, but will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but some remaining uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes the addition of any probabilities. Beginning D5/Saturday and persisting into D6/Sunday, chances for dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels increases, with the most likely occurrence for dry thunder being D6/Sunday, into the overnight hours. Forecast profiles in Eastern Oregon into Idaho show deep, inverted-v profiles, which will favor gusty downdraft winds and lightning-induced ignitions, given limited wetting rain over very dry fuels. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more