SPC Jul 10, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A couple of severe gusts are also possible in central and southern Arizona tomorrow evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deamplify across the Northeast as a mid-level anticyclone meanders over the Interior West tomorrow (Thursday). The overall synoptic pattern favors limited severe potential across the CONUS, with isolated strong to severe storms possible along the periphery of the anticyclone across the central/northern High Plains, and in central to southern Arizona. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Upslope flow will support widely scattered thunderstorm development off of the higher terrain along the WY/SD/CO/NE border area by afternoon peak heating. These thunderstorms will develop amid a deep, well-mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb (per latest forecast soundings), where 7.5-8.5 C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates will be present. 10-15 kt southeasterly surface winds beneath 20-30 kt 500 mb flow, traversing the periphery of the anticyclone, will result in slightly curved but elongated hodographs. As such, the speed shear and steep lapse rates will be adequate in supporting high-based multicells capable of producing a couple instances of severe wind gusts and perhaps hail. ...Central and southern Arizona... By late afternoon or early evening, the combination of strong surface heating and orographic lift will support thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim. Over 20 kts of northeasterly 500 mb flow will pivot around the south side of the anticylone, aiding in thunderstorms moving off of the higher terrain, atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by 8+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates. Classic inverted-v forecast soundings extend up to 600 mb, indicating high-based storms. Vertical wind shear is not forecast to be overly strong. However, faster storm motions aided by the stronger flow aloft may prevent cold pools from quickly undercutting updrafts, allowing for longer-term convective propagation and associated potential for a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 10, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A couple of severe gusts are also possible in central and southern Arizona tomorrow evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deamplify across the Northeast as a mid-level anticyclone meanders over the Interior West tomorrow (Thursday). The overall synoptic pattern favors limited severe potential across the CONUS, with isolated strong to severe storms possible along the periphery of the anticyclone across the central/northern High Plains, and in central to southern Arizona. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Upslope flow will support widely scattered thunderstorm development off of the higher terrain along the WY/SD/CO/NE border area by afternoon peak heating. These thunderstorms will develop amid a deep, well-mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb (per latest forecast soundings), where 7.5-8.5 C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates will be present. 10-15 kt southeasterly surface winds beneath 20-30 kt 500 mb flow, traversing the periphery of the anticyclone, will result in slightly curved but elongated hodographs. As such, the speed shear and steep lapse rates will be adequate in supporting high-based multicells capable of producing a couple instances of severe wind gusts and perhaps hail. ...Central and southern Arizona... By late afternoon or early evening, the combination of strong surface heating and orographic lift will support thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim. Over 20 kts of northeasterly 500 mb flow will pivot around the south side of the anticylone, aiding in thunderstorms moving off of the higher terrain, atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by 8+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates. Classic inverted-v forecast soundings extend up to 600 mb, indicating high-based storms. Vertical wind shear is not forecast to be overly strong. However, faster storm motions aided by the stronger flow aloft may prevent cold pools from quickly undercutting updrafts, allowing for longer-term convective propagation and associated potential for a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 10, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A couple of severe gusts are also possible in central and southern Arizona tomorrow evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deamplify across the Northeast as a mid-level anticyclone meanders over the Interior West tomorrow (Thursday). The overall synoptic pattern favors limited severe potential across the CONUS, with isolated strong to severe storms possible along the periphery of the anticyclone across the central/northern High Plains, and in central to southern Arizona. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Upslope flow will support widely scattered thunderstorm development off of the higher terrain along the WY/SD/CO/NE border area by afternoon peak heating. These thunderstorms will develop amid a deep, well-mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb (per latest forecast soundings), where 7.5-8.5 C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates will be present. 10-15 kt southeasterly surface winds beneath 20-30 kt 500 mb flow, traversing the periphery of the anticyclone, will result in slightly curved but elongated hodographs. As such, the speed shear and steep lapse rates will be adequate in supporting high-based multicells capable of producing a couple instances of severe wind gusts and perhaps hail. ...Central and southern Arizona... By late afternoon or early evening, the combination of strong surface heating and orographic lift will support thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim. Over 20 kts of northeasterly 500 mb flow will pivot around the south side of the anticylone, aiding in thunderstorms moving off of the higher terrain, atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by 8+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates. Classic inverted-v forecast soundings extend up to 600 mb, indicating high-based storms. Vertical wind shear is not forecast to be overly strong. However, faster storm motions aided by the stronger flow aloft may prevent cold pools from quickly undercutting updrafts, allowing for longer-term convective propagation and associated potential for a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 10, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the central into northern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A couple of severe gusts are also possible in central and southern Arizona tomorrow evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deamplify across the Northeast as a mid-level anticyclone meanders over the Interior West tomorrow (Thursday). The overall synoptic pattern favors limited severe potential across the CONUS, with isolated strong to severe storms possible along the periphery of the anticyclone across the central/northern High Plains, and in central to southern Arizona. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Upslope flow will support widely scattered thunderstorm development off of the higher terrain along the WY/SD/CO/NE border area by afternoon peak heating. These thunderstorms will develop amid a deep, well-mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb (per latest forecast soundings), where 7.5-8.5 C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates will be present. 10-15 kt southeasterly surface winds beneath 20-30 kt 500 mb flow, traversing the periphery of the anticyclone, will result in slightly curved but elongated hodographs. As such, the speed shear and steep lapse rates will be adequate in supporting high-based multicells capable of producing a couple instances of severe wind gusts and perhaps hail. ...Central and southern Arizona... By late afternoon or early evening, the combination of strong surface heating and orographic lift will support thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim. Over 20 kts of northeasterly 500 mb flow will pivot around the south side of the anticylone, aiding in thunderstorms moving off of the higher terrain, atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by 8+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates. Classic inverted-v forecast soundings extend up to 600 mb, indicating high-based storms. Vertical wind shear is not forecast to be overly strong. However, faster storm motions aided by the stronger flow aloft may prevent cold pools from quickly undercutting updrafts, allowing for longer-term convective propagation and associated potential for a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 10, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a tornado and isolated wind-damage threat, are expected today across parts of the Northeast. The greatest tornado risk will be over southwest and south-central New York. An isolated wind-damage threat is also expected to develop across parts of New Mexico and west Texas. ...Northeast... The remnants of Beryl will move east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians today, as an upper-level trough moves across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a low will move into western New York, as a warm front advances slowly northward into west-central and central New York. It appears that a band of cells will move across southern and central New York this morning, with another band forming in the afternoon and moving through the same general area. Surface winds near and just to the south of the front will be backed toward the east-southeast, enhancing directional shear in the boundary layer. This is evident on the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z for Syracuse, NY, which has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This forecast sounding also has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots with a substantial amount of speed shear in the low to mid-levels. MLCAPE just to the south of the warm front is forecast to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with low-level lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment will likely be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat will likely be within an east-to-west corridor from just southeast of Buffalo to just west of Albany. The tornado threat is expected to be maximized in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. The stronger thunderstorms near and to the south of the warm front will also likely have a wind-damage threat. By late afternoon, convection is forecast to develop southward along a pre-frontal trough from central Pennsylvania into central Virginia. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts. ...New Mexico/West Texas... A relatively moist airmass will be in place today across much of southern and central New Mexico, where surface dewpoints will likely range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s F. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will first develop in the mountains, and then later in the lower elevations. Forecast soundings across southern and central New Mexico suggest that SBCAPE will peak in the 800 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability, along with nearly dry adiabatic temperature profiles, will support a potential for marginally severe gusts. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 10, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a tornado and isolated wind-damage threat, are expected today across parts of the Northeast. The greatest tornado risk will be over southwest and south-central New York. An isolated wind-damage threat is also expected to develop across parts of New Mexico and west Texas. ...Northeast... The remnants of Beryl will move east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians today, as an upper-level trough moves across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a low will move into western New York, as a warm front advances slowly northward into west-central and central New York. It appears that a band of cells will move across southern and central New York this morning, with another band forming in the afternoon and moving through the same general area. Surface winds near and just to the south of the front will be backed toward the east-southeast, enhancing directional shear in the boundary layer. This is evident on the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z for Syracuse, NY, which has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This forecast sounding also has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots with a substantial amount of speed shear in the low to mid-levels. MLCAPE just to the south of the warm front is forecast to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with low-level lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment will likely be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat will likely be within an east-to-west corridor from just southeast of Buffalo to just west of Albany. The tornado threat is expected to be maximized in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. The stronger thunderstorms near and to the south of the warm front will also likely have a wind-damage threat. By late afternoon, convection is forecast to develop southward along a pre-frontal trough from central Pennsylvania into central Virginia. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts. ...New Mexico/West Texas... A relatively moist airmass will be in place today across much of southern and central New Mexico, where surface dewpoints will likely range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s F. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will first develop in the mountains, and then later in the lower elevations. Forecast soundings across southern and central New Mexico suggest that SBCAPE will peak in the 800 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability, along with nearly dry adiabatic temperature profiles, will support a potential for marginally severe gusts. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 10, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a tornado and isolated wind-damage threat, are expected today across parts of the Northeast. The greatest tornado risk will be over southwest and south-central New York. An isolated wind-damage threat is also expected to develop across parts of New Mexico and west Texas. ...Northeast... The remnants of Beryl will move east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians today, as an upper-level trough moves across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a low will move into western New York, as a warm front advances slowly northward into west-central and central New York. It appears that a band of cells will move across southern and central New York this morning, with another band forming in the afternoon and moving through the same general area. Surface winds near and just to the south of the front will be backed toward the east-southeast, enhancing directional shear in the boundary layer. This is evident on the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z for Syracuse, NY, which has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This forecast sounding also has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots with a substantial amount of speed shear in the low to mid-levels. MLCAPE just to the south of the warm front is forecast to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with low-level lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment will likely be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat will likely be within an east-to-west corridor from just southeast of Buffalo to just west of Albany. The tornado threat is expected to be maximized in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. The stronger thunderstorms near and to the south of the warm front will also likely have a wind-damage threat. By late afternoon, convection is forecast to develop southward along a pre-frontal trough from central Pennsylvania into central Virginia. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts. ...New Mexico/West Texas... A relatively moist airmass will be in place today across much of southern and central New Mexico, where surface dewpoints will likely range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s F. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will first develop in the mountains, and then later in the lower elevations. Forecast soundings across southern and central New Mexico suggest that SBCAPE will peak in the 800 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability, along with nearly dry adiabatic temperature profiles, will support a potential for marginally severe gusts. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 10, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a tornado and isolated wind-damage threat, are expected today across parts of the Northeast. The greatest tornado risk will be over southwest and south-central New York. An isolated wind-damage threat is also expected to develop across parts of New Mexico and west Texas. ...Northeast... The remnants of Beryl will move east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians today, as an upper-level trough moves across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a low will move into western New York, as a warm front advances slowly northward into west-central and central New York. It appears that a band of cells will move across southern and central New York this morning, with another band forming in the afternoon and moving through the same general area. Surface winds near and just to the south of the front will be backed toward the east-southeast, enhancing directional shear in the boundary layer. This is evident on the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z for Syracuse, NY, which has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This forecast sounding also has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots with a substantial amount of speed shear in the low to mid-levels. MLCAPE just to the south of the warm front is forecast to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with low-level lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment will likely be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat will likely be within an east-to-west corridor from just southeast of Buffalo to just west of Albany. The tornado threat is expected to be maximized in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. The stronger thunderstorms near and to the south of the warm front will also likely have a wind-damage threat. By late afternoon, convection is forecast to develop southward along a pre-frontal trough from central Pennsylvania into central Virginia. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts. ...New Mexico/West Texas... A relatively moist airmass will be in place today across much of southern and central New Mexico, where surface dewpoints will likely range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s F. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will first develop in the mountains, and then later in the lower elevations. Forecast soundings across southern and central New Mexico suggest that SBCAPE will peak in the 800 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability, along with nearly dry adiabatic temperature profiles, will support a potential for marginally severe gusts. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 10, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a tornado and isolated wind-damage threat, are expected today across parts of the Northeast. The greatest tornado risk will be over southwest and south-central New York. An isolated wind-damage threat is also expected to develop across parts of New Mexico and west Texas. ...Northeast... The remnants of Beryl will move east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians today, as an upper-level trough moves across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a low will move into western New York, as a warm front advances slowly northward into west-central and central New York. It appears that a band of cells will move across southern and central New York this morning, with another band forming in the afternoon and moving through the same general area. Surface winds near and just to the south of the front will be backed toward the east-southeast, enhancing directional shear in the boundary layer. This is evident on the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z for Syracuse, NY, which has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This forecast sounding also has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots with a substantial amount of speed shear in the low to mid-levels. MLCAPE just to the south of the warm front is forecast to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with low-level lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment will likely be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat will likely be within an east-to-west corridor from just southeast of Buffalo to just west of Albany. The tornado threat is expected to be maximized in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. The stronger thunderstorms near and to the south of the warm front will also likely have a wind-damage threat. By late afternoon, convection is forecast to develop southward along a pre-frontal trough from central Pennsylvania into central Virginia. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts. ...New Mexico/West Texas... A relatively moist airmass will be in place today across much of southern and central New Mexico, where surface dewpoints will likely range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s F. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will first develop in the mountains, and then later in the lower elevations. Forecast soundings across southern and central New Mexico suggest that SBCAPE will peak in the 800 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability, along with nearly dry adiabatic temperature profiles, will support a potential for marginally severe gusts. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/10/2024 Read more

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

1 year ago

173
ABNT20 KNHC 100505
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Beryl, located inland over central Indiana.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

NHC Webmaster

SPC Tornado Watch 516 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE LEX TO 40 WSW DAY. ..THORNTON..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC023-037-100440- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRACKEN CAMPBELL OHC017-025-061-135-165-100440- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CLERMONT HAMILTON PREBLE WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 516

1 year ago
WW 516 TORNADO IL IN KY OH TN 091905Z - 100400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Kentucky Southwest Ohio Middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A very moist environment and the remnants of Beryl, and its strong low-level winds, will be favorable for rotating storms capable of tornadoes, and possibly localized wind damage. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Paducah KY to 15 miles east northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more

SPC MD 1567

1 year ago
MD 1567 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 516... FOR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1567 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Indiana...northern Kentucky...southwestern Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 516... Valid 100142Z - 100315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 516 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW516. Severe threat will likely diminish into the evening. DISCUSSION...Activity across southeastern Indiana, northern Kentucky, and southwestern Ohio has trended downward in intensity with loss of stronger daytime heating. A few supercells have continued in the immediate vicinity of the warm front across southwestern Ohio/far southeastern Indiana. While risk for an occasional rotating supercell may continue into the rest of the evening given continued warm advection regime and strong deep layer shear, the overall tornado threat continues to trend slowly downward due to weaker instability, especially with eastern extent into OH. While a local extension of WW561 past 04z is possible to cover any lingering threat across southern Ohio, a downstream watch is not likely to be needed at this time. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 39388639 39748616 39988535 40008457 39928410 39658356 39258339 39038340 38838367 38548436 38178568 38298635 38378641 39388639 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 516 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE LEX TO 35 SE IND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567 ..THORNTON..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-031-041-047-115-137-139-145-155-161-100340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN DECATUR FAYETTE FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SWITZERLAND UNION KYC015-023-037-077-081-097-117-191-100340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRACKEN CAMPBELL GALLATIN GRANT HARRISON KENTON PENDLETON OHC017-025-061-135-165-100340- Read more

SPC Jul 10, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible across the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur this evening from southern Kentucky to southern Lake Erie. ...Lower Ohio Valley... The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl are currently located from the far southern Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing from southern Indiana into west-central Kentucky. A few discrete storms are located ahead of the line further to the east into central Kentucky. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate instability across south-central Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will help maintain thunderstorm development this evening. The WSR-88D VWP at Louisville, KY currently has 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 370 m2/s2. This shear environment will be favorable for rotating cells with an isolated tornado threat this evening. The threat should gradually shift eastward into east-central Kentucky and southwest Ohio later this evening. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible across the Ohio Valley and far southern Great Lakes this evening into tonight as the remnants of Beryl move northeastward. ..Broyles.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 10, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible across the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur this evening from southern Kentucky to southern Lake Erie. ...Lower Ohio Valley... The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl are currently located from the far southern Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing from southern Indiana into west-central Kentucky. A few discrete storms are located ahead of the line further to the east into central Kentucky. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate instability across south-central Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will help maintain thunderstorm development this evening. The WSR-88D VWP at Louisville, KY currently has 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 370 m2/s2. This shear environment will be favorable for rotating cells with an isolated tornado threat this evening. The threat should gradually shift eastward into east-central Kentucky and southwest Ohio later this evening. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible across the Ohio Valley and far southern Great Lakes this evening into tonight as the remnants of Beryl move northeastward. ..Broyles.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 10, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible across the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur this evening from southern Kentucky to southern Lake Erie. ...Lower Ohio Valley... The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl are currently located from the far southern Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing from southern Indiana into west-central Kentucky. A few discrete storms are located ahead of the line further to the east into central Kentucky. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate instability across south-central Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will help maintain thunderstorm development this evening. The WSR-88D VWP at Louisville, KY currently has 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 370 m2/s2. This shear environment will be favorable for rotating cells with an isolated tornado threat this evening. The threat should gradually shift eastward into east-central Kentucky and southwest Ohio later this evening. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible across the Ohio Valley and far southern Great Lakes this evening into tonight as the remnants of Beryl move northeastward. ..Broyles.. 07/10/2024 Read more