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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Update... In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional details pertaining to NV and CA. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Update... In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional details pertaining to NV and CA. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Update... In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional details pertaining to NV and CA. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Update... In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional details pertaining to NV and CA. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Update... In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional details pertaining to NV and CA. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Update... In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional details pertaining to NV and CA. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Update... In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional details pertaining to NV and CA. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Update... In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional details pertaining to NV and CA. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Update... In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional details pertaining to NV and CA. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more