Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091720
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today over the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a progressive mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the lower MO Valley/Ozarks. This mid-level trough is forecast to reach Lake Michigan/Indiana by late tonight. The remnants of Beryl will move across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the associated surface low, morning surface analysis indicates a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints from the IN/OH/KY tri-state south/southwest into the Mid South ahead of the low. Surface streamlines show a warm frontal zone extending east-northeast from the low. The warm front will advance northward to near the OH River by mid afternoon and serve as a focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Despite considerable cloud cover this morning, significant cloud breaks south of the warm front and pockets of heating will destabilize the airmass from the mid MS Valley to the OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop in the vicinity of the warm front and to its south over parts of KY/TN. Models imply, and this notion is supported by morning observational trends, that a couple of convective bands will preferentially favor storm development today. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop within a moderately unstable airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Forecast hodographs will become enlarged --especially in the warm frontal zone where backed low-level flow will reside-- as a 30-40 southerly 850-mb LLJ overspreads the OH Valley during the afternoon/evening. One or more bands of quasi-discrete supercells are forecast with tornado potential greatest in a southwest to northeast corridor paralleling the OH River this afternoon into the evening. ...New England... A low-amplitude trough at mid-levels will move eastward across Quebec and New England during the period. Heating of a seasonably moist airmass by afternoon will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two, will pose an isolated risk for 50-65 mph gusts and large hail. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/09/2024 Read more