Aggregator

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South, and separately across a portion of the Pacific Northwest. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... Much of the broad level 1-MRGL risk area has remain unchanged, with a minor expansion across parts of the Mid-South. A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes vicinity through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into southern ON. A weak cold front will arc to the south over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South to the KS-OK border area. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks to Mid-South vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify, perhaps aided by an attendant MCV generated on D2, as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in parts of the Mid to Deep South. This region will lie in the gradient of mid-level flow enhancement (outside of any MCV influence) that would aid in semi-organized multicell clustering, with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. Farther north and east, deep-layer flow should be nearly unidirectional with moderate 700-500 mb westerlies. This will foster potential for multiple multicell clusters over a relatively broad warm sector across the OH Valley to the Lower Great Lakes and the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with eastern extent, and overall MLCAPE values should tend to be moderate from 1000-2500 J/kg. At least localized damaging winds will be possible across a broad swath of the eastern CONUS. Confidence remains too low at this time in highlighting more focused corridors of greater damaging wind potential. ...Pacific Northwest... A pronounced shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should approach the northern CA and OR coast on Saturday. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet should become centered across northern CA and the Sierra NV Range. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steepening mid to low-level lapse rates will support a threat for a few organized high-based cells/clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South, and separately across a portion of the Pacific Northwest. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... Much of the broad level 1-MRGL risk area has remain unchanged, with a minor expansion across parts of the Mid-South. A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes vicinity through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into southern ON. A weak cold front will arc to the south over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South to the KS-OK border area. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks to Mid-South vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify, perhaps aided by an attendant MCV generated on D2, as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in parts of the Mid to Deep South. This region will lie in the gradient of mid-level flow enhancement (outside of any MCV influence) that would aid in semi-organized multicell clustering, with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. Farther north and east, deep-layer flow should be nearly unidirectional with moderate 700-500 mb westerlies. This will foster potential for multiple multicell clusters over a relatively broad warm sector across the OH Valley to the Lower Great Lakes and the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with eastern extent, and overall MLCAPE values should tend to be moderate from 1000-2500 J/kg. At least localized damaging winds will be possible across a broad swath of the eastern CONUS. Confidence remains too low at this time in highlighting more focused corridors of greater damaging wind potential. ...Pacific Northwest... A pronounced shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should approach the northern CA and OR coast on Saturday. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet should become centered across northern CA and the Sierra NV Range. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steepening mid to low-level lapse rates will support a threat for a few organized high-based cells/clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South, and separately across a portion of the Pacific Northwest. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... Much of the broad level 1-MRGL risk area has remain unchanged, with a minor expansion across parts of the Mid-South. A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes vicinity through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into southern ON. A weak cold front will arc to the south over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South to the KS-OK border area. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks to Mid-South vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify, perhaps aided by an attendant MCV generated on D2, as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in parts of the Mid to Deep South. This region will lie in the gradient of mid-level flow enhancement (outside of any MCV influence) that would aid in semi-organized multicell clustering, with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. Farther north and east, deep-layer flow should be nearly unidirectional with moderate 700-500 mb westerlies. This will foster potential for multiple multicell clusters over a relatively broad warm sector across the OH Valley to the Lower Great Lakes and the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with eastern extent, and overall MLCAPE values should tend to be moderate from 1000-2500 J/kg. At least localized damaging winds will be possible across a broad swath of the eastern CONUS. Confidence remains too low at this time in highlighting more focused corridors of greater damaging wind potential. ...Pacific Northwest... A pronounced shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should approach the northern CA and OR coast on Saturday. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet should become centered across northern CA and the Sierra NV Range. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steepening mid to low-level lapse rates will support a threat for a few organized high-based cells/clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South, and separately across a portion of the Pacific Northwest. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... Much of the broad level 1-MRGL risk area has remain unchanged, with a minor expansion across parts of the Mid-South. A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes vicinity through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into southern ON. A weak cold front will arc to the south over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South to the KS-OK border area. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks to Mid-South vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify, perhaps aided by an attendant MCV generated on D2, as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in parts of the Mid to Deep South. This region will lie in the gradient of mid-level flow enhancement (outside of any MCV influence) that would aid in semi-organized multicell clustering, with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. Farther north and east, deep-layer flow should be nearly unidirectional with moderate 700-500 mb westerlies. This will foster potential for multiple multicell clusters over a relatively broad warm sector across the OH Valley to the Lower Great Lakes and the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with eastern extent, and overall MLCAPE values should tend to be moderate from 1000-2500 J/kg. At least localized damaging winds will be possible across a broad swath of the eastern CONUS. Confidence remains too low at this time in highlighting more focused corridors of greater damaging wind potential. ...Pacific Northwest... A pronounced shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should approach the northern CA and OR coast on Saturday. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet should become centered across northern CA and the Sierra NV Range. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steepening mid to low-level lapse rates will support a threat for a few organized high-based cells/clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South, and separately across a portion of the Pacific Northwest. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... Much of the broad level 1-MRGL risk area has remain unchanged, with a minor expansion across parts of the Mid-South. A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes vicinity through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into southern ON. A weak cold front will arc to the south over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South to the KS-OK border area. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks to Mid-South vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify, perhaps aided by an attendant MCV generated on D2, as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in parts of the Mid to Deep South. This region will lie in the gradient of mid-level flow enhancement (outside of any MCV influence) that would aid in semi-organized multicell clustering, with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. Farther north and east, deep-layer flow should be nearly unidirectional with moderate 700-500 mb westerlies. This will foster potential for multiple multicell clusters over a relatively broad warm sector across the OH Valley to the Lower Great Lakes and the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with eastern extent, and overall MLCAPE values should tend to be moderate from 1000-2500 J/kg. At least localized damaging winds will be possible across a broad swath of the eastern CONUS. Confidence remains too low at this time in highlighting more focused corridors of greater damaging wind potential. ...Pacific Northwest... A pronounced shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should approach the northern CA and OR coast on Saturday. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet should become centered across northern CA and the Sierra NV Range. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steepening mid to low-level lapse rates will support a threat for a few organized high-based cells/clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South, and separately across a portion of the Pacific Northwest. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... Much of the broad level 1-MRGL risk area has remain unchanged, with a minor expansion across parts of the Mid-South. A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes vicinity through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into southern ON. A weak cold front will arc to the south over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South to the KS-OK border area. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks to Mid-South vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify, perhaps aided by an attendant MCV generated on D2, as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in parts of the Mid to Deep South. This region will lie in the gradient of mid-level flow enhancement (outside of any MCV influence) that would aid in semi-organized multicell clustering, with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. Farther north and east, deep-layer flow should be nearly unidirectional with moderate 700-500 mb westerlies. This will foster potential for multiple multicell clusters over a relatively broad warm sector across the OH Valley to the Lower Great Lakes and the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with eastern extent, and overall MLCAPE values should tend to be moderate from 1000-2500 J/kg. At least localized damaging winds will be possible across a broad swath of the eastern CONUS. Confidence remains too low at this time in highlighting more focused corridors of greater damaging wind potential. ...Pacific Northwest... A pronounced shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should approach the northern CA and OR coast on Saturday. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet should become centered across northern CA and the Sierra NV Range. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steepening mid to low-level lapse rates will support a threat for a few organized high-based cells/clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast CA into southern/eastern NV. Latest guidance continues to show high confidence in a corridor of 20-25 mph winds emanating out of the southern Sierra Nevada with RH values in the single digits. Fuel conditions continue to be somewhat marginal across eastern NV, but become increasingly dry with westward extent. Given the high confidence in reaching critical fire weather thresholds, an Elevated risk area has been introduced where the overlap of 20+ mph winds with sub-10% RH and ERCs at/above the 80th percentile is greatest. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1906 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT...INTO MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1906 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...New Hampshire...Vermont...into Massachusetts...eastern New York State...Connecticut and Rhode island Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151557Z - 151830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development appears probable through 3-5 PM EDT, with widely scattered stronger storms accompanied by a risk for localized, potentially damaging, downbursts and perhaps some small hail. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer destabilization is underway across much of western New England into the Adirondacks and Catskills, with continuing insolation beneath the western flank of a modest mid-level cold pool associated with a slowly moving mid/upper trough near the Atlantic Seaboard. Forcing for ascent, associated with one or two perturbations pivoting through this regime, has been supporting some thunderstorm activity spreading southward within generally light (10-20 kt) northerly deep-layer mean flow across western Maine, with consolidating surface outflow slowly beginning to spread southwestward into western New England. With further boundary-layer destabilization, which may include CAPE increasing up to 1500+ J/kg, and weakening of mid-level inhibition, model output suggests that the outflow boundary, and orographic forcing along the higher terrain to the west, will provide a focus for increasing thunderstorm development through 19-21Z. Despite the weak nature of the wind fields and shear, modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates evident in forecast soundings may allow for sufficient negative buoyancy in downdrafts to support localized damaging surface gusts in stronger storms. Some small to marginally severe hail might also not be out of the question. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 45807107 44967115 44277135 43307060 42117106 41917201 42197395 43337459 44067379 44887299 45287238 45807107 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about a thousand
miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a
trough of low pressure, which has moved into the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center's area of responsibility. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week
while moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph. All future
information on this system will be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while moving west-northwestward away
from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Berg