Aggregator

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential currently appears too low and isolated for an outlook area on day 3. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, general deamplification but persistence of troughing is expected over the central/eastern CONUS through the period. Meanwhile, a prominent high will meander erratically over the southern Great Basin, while the associated anticyclone strengthens/expands slightly. The remnant midlevel low of tropical cyclone Beryl will weaken and move northeastward from the Lake Huron area toward southern QC, while at the surface, the original low dissipates and a triple-point low near the NY/QC border also weakens. The remnant surface cold front -- from eastern NY/western New England south-southwestward across the Carolinas -- should decelerate and undergo frontolysis. While enough moisture and shear may remain to support conditional strong/severe-thunderstorm potential in parts of New England this period, the overall weakening of both the upper trough and the frontal zone suggest too much uncertainty on sufficient lift and storm coverage for a severe area this far out in time. A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon or evening, near a zone of warm frontogenesis across portions of the lower Missouri Valley. Planar progs of moisture, instability and shear show a favorable parameter space over this region, with rich low-level moisture underlying mostly steep low/middle-level lapse rates. However, EML-related stable layers/capping, as well as modest strength of lift near the warm front, lend too much uncertainty on convective coverage/longevity to introduce an unconditional risk area at this time. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential currently appears too low and isolated for an outlook area on day 3. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, general deamplification but persistence of troughing is expected over the central/eastern CONUS through the period. Meanwhile, a prominent high will meander erratically over the southern Great Basin, while the associated anticyclone strengthens/expands slightly. The remnant midlevel low of tropical cyclone Beryl will weaken and move northeastward from the Lake Huron area toward southern QC, while at the surface, the original low dissipates and a triple-point low near the NY/QC border also weakens. The remnant surface cold front -- from eastern NY/western New England south-southwestward across the Carolinas -- should decelerate and undergo frontolysis. While enough moisture and shear may remain to support conditional strong/severe-thunderstorm potential in parts of New England this period, the overall weakening of both the upper trough and the frontal zone suggest too much uncertainty on sufficient lift and storm coverage for a severe area this far out in time. A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon or evening, near a zone of warm frontogenesis across portions of the lower Missouri Valley. Planar progs of moisture, instability and shear show a favorable parameter space over this region, with rich low-level moisture underlying mostly steep low/middle-level lapse rates. However, EML-related stable layers/capping, as well as modest strength of lift near the warm front, lend too much uncertainty on convective coverage/longevity to introduce an unconditional risk area at this time. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential currently appears too low and isolated for an outlook area on day 3. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, general deamplification but persistence of troughing is expected over the central/eastern CONUS through the period. Meanwhile, a prominent high will meander erratically over the southern Great Basin, while the associated anticyclone strengthens/expands slightly. The remnant midlevel low of tropical cyclone Beryl will weaken and move northeastward from the Lake Huron area toward southern QC, while at the surface, the original low dissipates and a triple-point low near the NY/QC border also weakens. The remnant surface cold front -- from eastern NY/western New England south-southwestward across the Carolinas -- should decelerate and undergo frontolysis. While enough moisture and shear may remain to support conditional strong/severe-thunderstorm potential in parts of New England this period, the overall weakening of both the upper trough and the frontal zone suggest too much uncertainty on sufficient lift and storm coverage for a severe area this far out in time. A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon or evening, near a zone of warm frontogenesis across portions of the lower Missouri Valley. Planar progs of moisture, instability and shear show a favorable parameter space over this region, with rich low-level moisture underlying mostly steep low/middle-level lapse rates. However, EML-related stable layers/capping, as well as modest strength of lift near the warm front, lend too much uncertainty on convective coverage/longevity to introduce an unconditional risk area at this time. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential currently appears too low and isolated for an outlook area on day 3. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, general deamplification but persistence of troughing is expected over the central/eastern CONUS through the period. Meanwhile, a prominent high will meander erratically over the southern Great Basin, while the associated anticyclone strengthens/expands slightly. The remnant midlevel low of tropical cyclone Beryl will weaken and move northeastward from the Lake Huron area toward southern QC, while at the surface, the original low dissipates and a triple-point low near the NY/QC border also weakens. The remnant surface cold front -- from eastern NY/western New England south-southwestward across the Carolinas -- should decelerate and undergo frontolysis. While enough moisture and shear may remain to support conditional strong/severe-thunderstorm potential in parts of New England this period, the overall weakening of both the upper trough and the frontal zone suggest too much uncertainty on sufficient lift and storm coverage for a severe area this far out in time. A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon or evening, near a zone of warm frontogenesis across portions of the lower Missouri Valley. Planar progs of moisture, instability and shear show a favorable parameter space over this region, with rich low-level moisture underlying mostly steep low/middle-level lapse rates. However, EML-related stable layers/capping, as well as modest strength of lift near the warm front, lend too much uncertainty on convective coverage/longevity to introduce an unconditional risk area at this time. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential currently appears too low and isolated for an outlook area on day 3. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, general deamplification but persistence of troughing is expected over the central/eastern CONUS through the period. Meanwhile, a prominent high will meander erratically over the southern Great Basin, while the associated anticyclone strengthens/expands slightly. The remnant midlevel low of tropical cyclone Beryl will weaken and move northeastward from the Lake Huron area toward southern QC, while at the surface, the original low dissipates and a triple-point low near the NY/QC border also weakens. The remnant surface cold front -- from eastern NY/western New England south-southwestward across the Carolinas -- should decelerate and undergo frontolysis. While enough moisture and shear may remain to support conditional strong/severe-thunderstorm potential in parts of New England this period, the overall weakening of both the upper trough and the frontal zone suggest too much uncertainty on sufficient lift and storm coverage for a severe area this far out in time. A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon or evening, near a zone of warm frontogenesis across portions of the lower Missouri Valley. Planar progs of moisture, instability and shear show a favorable parameter space over this region, with rich low-level moisture underlying mostly steep low/middle-level lapse rates. However, EML-related stable layers/capping, as well as modest strength of lift near the warm front, lend too much uncertainty on convective coverage/longevity to introduce an unconditional risk area at this time. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential currently appears too low and isolated for an outlook area on day 3. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, general deamplification but persistence of troughing is expected over the central/eastern CONUS through the period. Meanwhile, a prominent high will meander erratically over the southern Great Basin, while the associated anticyclone strengthens/expands slightly. The remnant midlevel low of tropical cyclone Beryl will weaken and move northeastward from the Lake Huron area toward southern QC, while at the surface, the original low dissipates and a triple-point low near the NY/QC border also weakens. The remnant surface cold front -- from eastern NY/western New England south-southwestward across the Carolinas -- should decelerate and undergo frontolysis. While enough moisture and shear may remain to support conditional strong/severe-thunderstorm potential in parts of New England this period, the overall weakening of both the upper trough and the frontal zone suggest too much uncertainty on sufficient lift and storm coverage for a severe area this far out in time. A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon or evening, near a zone of warm frontogenesis across portions of the lower Missouri Valley. Planar progs of moisture, instability and shear show a favorable parameter space over this region, with rich low-level moisture underlying mostly steep low/middle-level lapse rates. However, EML-related stable layers/capping, as well as modest strength of lift near the warm front, lend too much uncertainty on convective coverage/longevity to introduce an unconditional risk area at this time. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

MD 1563 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Areas affected...northeast Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090659Z - 090830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Low tornado threat may persist through the early morning hours. No additional tornado watch is anticipated early this morning. DISCUSSION...Tornado watch 515 will be allowed to expire at 07Z. Occasional low-level circulation has been evident from the KLZK and KNQA WSR-88Ds, but storm activity is becoming increasingly concentrated within weaker buoyancy and heavy rain where more robust updrafts are less likely. Given the favorable low-level shear apparent on the KNQA VWP, intermittent stronger low-level rotation remains possible, but expect the primary tornado threat to have diminished. A downstream/replacement tornado watch is not expected. ..Bentley/Smith.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 34759297 35509233 36039086 36218983 36148887 35878846 35598837 35198882 34838970 34419054 34039130 34119204 34229245 34759297 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ..Thornton.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more