Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Friday will be characterized by west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the Western U.S., with a shortwave trough approaching the Oregon/Washington coasts late in the period. This will support some dry/windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and western Utah, with relative humidity dropping to 10-15% with winds reaching 20-25 MPH. However, these conditions will largely occur over fuels that have received recent wetting rainfall or are only modestly dry, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central/southern Plains. Damaging winds and occasional large hail should be the main threats. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South... A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. Extensive convection will probably be ongoing Friday morning across the OH Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms may occur through the day, though the primary severe threat is expected with separate thunderstorms that will develop in the wake of early-day convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating of a rather moist low-level airmass across a broad area will support pockets of moderate to locally strong instability by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys. Moderate mid-level flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment should eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. However, details of thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain rather unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak low-level convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader Marginal Risk area. ...Ozarks into the Central/Southern Plains... The trailing portion of the cold front should extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development may occur in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Other isolated activity may develop across the central High Plains in eastern CO into western KS. Moderate to strong buoyancy and supportive deep-layer shear across these areas should foster a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and large hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon through the evening. ...Northern High Plains... High-based convection may develop over the northern Rockies in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough, and subsequently move across the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture and instability are forecast to remain limited, but steepened low-level lapse rates could allow for isolated strong/gusty winds as this activity moves east-northeastward through the early evening. At this point, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe wind probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central/southern Plains. Damaging winds and occasional large hail should be the main threats. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South... A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. Extensive convection will probably be ongoing Friday morning across the OH Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms may occur through the day, though the primary severe threat is expected with separate thunderstorms that will develop in the wake of early-day convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating of a rather moist low-level airmass across a broad area will support pockets of moderate to locally strong instability by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys. Moderate mid-level flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment should eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. However, details of thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain rather unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak low-level convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader Marginal Risk area. ...Ozarks into the Central/Southern Plains... The trailing portion of the cold front should extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development may occur in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Other isolated activity may develop across the central High Plains in eastern CO into western KS. Moderate to strong buoyancy and supportive deep-layer shear across these areas should foster a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and large hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon through the evening. ...Northern High Plains... High-based convection may develop over the northern Rockies in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough, and subsequently move across the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture and instability are forecast to remain limited, but steepened low-level lapse rates could allow for isolated strong/gusty winds as this activity moves east-northeastward through the early evening. At this point, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe wind probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central/southern Plains. Damaging winds and occasional large hail should be the main threats. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South... A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. Extensive convection will probably be ongoing Friday morning across the OH Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms may occur through the day, though the primary severe threat is expected with separate thunderstorms that will develop in the wake of early-day convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating of a rather moist low-level airmass across a broad area will support pockets of moderate to locally strong instability by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys. Moderate mid-level flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment should eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. However, details of thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain rather unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak low-level convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader Marginal Risk area. ...Ozarks into the Central/Southern Plains... The trailing portion of the cold front should extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development may occur in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Other isolated activity may develop across the central High Plains in eastern CO into western KS. Moderate to strong buoyancy and supportive deep-layer shear across these areas should foster a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and large hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon through the evening. ...Northern High Plains... High-based convection may develop over the northern Rockies in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough, and subsequently move across the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture and instability are forecast to remain limited, but steepened low-level lapse rates could allow for isolated strong/gusty winds as this activity moves east-northeastward through the early evening. At this point, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe wind probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central/southern Plains. Damaging winds and occasional large hail should be the main threats. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South... A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. Extensive convection will probably be ongoing Friday morning across the OH Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms may occur through the day, though the primary severe threat is expected with separate thunderstorms that will develop in the wake of early-day convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating of a rather moist low-level airmass across a broad area will support pockets of moderate to locally strong instability by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys. Moderate mid-level flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment should eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. However, details of thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain rather unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak low-level convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader Marginal Risk area. ...Ozarks into the Central/Southern Plains... The trailing portion of the cold front should extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development may occur in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Other isolated activity may develop across the central High Plains in eastern CO into western KS. Moderate to strong buoyancy and supportive deep-layer shear across these areas should foster a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and large hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon through the evening. ...Northern High Plains... High-based convection may develop over the northern Rockies in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough, and subsequently move across the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture and instability are forecast to remain limited, but steepened low-level lapse rates could allow for isolated strong/gusty winds as this activity moves east-northeastward through the early evening. At this point, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe wind probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

MD 1905 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1905 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Kansas into west-central and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622... Valid 150432Z - 150600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 continues. SUMMARY...Local risk for damaging wind gusts continues from northwestern Missouri into eastern Kansas. Risk should begin to gradually diminish in the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a fairly well-developed line of storms -- with some embedded bowing -- moving eastward across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Less-organized convection -- where local risk for gusty winds is ongoing -- extends southwestward to near the ICT (Wichita, KS) area. The greatest short-term threat is expected in/around the Kansas City metro area, where the most unstable airmass (around 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per RAP-based objective analysis) is indicated. Here, local gusts in excess of 60 to 65 MPH will be possible in the next hour or so. With time, the cooling/stabilizing boundary layer along with lesser instability with eastward extent suggests that storms will begin to gradually diminish in intensity, and thus severe potential. As such, the current 15/06Z expiration of WW 622 seems appropriate, though a local extension in time could be implemented for a few counties south/east of the existing watch if trends warrant. ..Goss.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37999576 37809684 38449677 39939454 40309418 40659348 40499272 39469270 38389418 37999576 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley today ahead of a short-wave trough that will approach western IA/northwest MO by early evening. Early in the period, a weak short-wave trough will be responsible for inducing multiple thunderstorm clusters across the Midwest, aided by LLJ that will translate into Lower MI by late afternoon. This early-day convection will be an extension of ongoing thunderstorm clusters that currently extend from central IA into eastern KS. This activity will propagate downstream as the LLJ shifts into the Great Lakes ahead of the weak disturbance. While locally severe gusts and hail could accompany this activity, considerable amount of precip and modest lapse rates do not favor widespread severe. Of more concern, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Latest model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will materialize by mid afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southeast IA. High-level diffluent flow will favor storm-top venting and scattered robust thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the short wave. Thunderstorms should concentrate along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. Dry adiabatic 0-3km lapse rates favor strong downdrafts as PW values will be seasonally high (1.5-1.75 inches). ...New England region... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley today ahead of a short-wave trough that will approach western IA/northwest MO by early evening. Early in the period, a weak short-wave trough will be responsible for inducing multiple thunderstorm clusters across the Midwest, aided by LLJ that will translate into Lower MI by late afternoon. This early-day convection will be an extension of ongoing thunderstorm clusters that currently extend from central IA into eastern KS. This activity will propagate downstream as the LLJ shifts into the Great Lakes ahead of the weak disturbance. While locally severe gusts and hail could accompany this activity, considerable amount of precip and modest lapse rates do not favor widespread severe. Of more concern, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Latest model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will materialize by mid afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southeast IA. High-level diffluent flow will favor storm-top venting and scattered robust thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the short wave. Thunderstorms should concentrate along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. Dry adiabatic 0-3km lapse rates favor strong downdrafts as PW values will be seasonally high (1.5-1.75 inches). ...New England region... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley today ahead of a short-wave trough that will approach western IA/northwest MO by early evening. Early in the period, a weak short-wave trough will be responsible for inducing multiple thunderstorm clusters across the Midwest, aided by LLJ that will translate into Lower MI by late afternoon. This early-day convection will be an extension of ongoing thunderstorm clusters that currently extend from central IA into eastern KS. This activity will propagate downstream as the LLJ shifts into the Great Lakes ahead of the weak disturbance. While locally severe gusts and hail could accompany this activity, considerable amount of precip and modest lapse rates do not favor widespread severe. Of more concern, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Latest model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will materialize by mid afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southeast IA. High-level diffluent flow will favor storm-top venting and scattered robust thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the short wave. Thunderstorms should concentrate along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. Dry adiabatic 0-3km lapse rates favor strong downdrafts as PW values will be seasonally high (1.5-1.75 inches). ...New England region... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley today ahead of a short-wave trough that will approach western IA/northwest MO by early evening. Early in the period, a weak short-wave trough will be responsible for inducing multiple thunderstorm clusters across the Midwest, aided by LLJ that will translate into Lower MI by late afternoon. This early-day convection will be an extension of ongoing thunderstorm clusters that currently extend from central IA into eastern KS. This activity will propagate downstream as the LLJ shifts into the Great Lakes ahead of the weak disturbance. While locally severe gusts and hail could accompany this activity, considerable amount of precip and modest lapse rates do not favor widespread severe. Of more concern, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Latest model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will materialize by mid afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southeast IA. High-level diffluent flow will favor storm-top venting and scattered robust thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the short wave. Thunderstorms should concentrate along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. Dry adiabatic 0-3km lapse rates favor strong downdrafts as PW values will be seasonally high (1.5-1.75 inches). ...New England region... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley today ahead of a short-wave trough that will approach western IA/northwest MO by early evening. Early in the period, a weak short-wave trough will be responsible for inducing multiple thunderstorm clusters across the Midwest, aided by LLJ that will translate into Lower MI by late afternoon. This early-day convection will be an extension of ongoing thunderstorm clusters that currently extend from central IA into eastern KS. This activity will propagate downstream as the LLJ shifts into the Great Lakes ahead of the weak disturbance. While locally severe gusts and hail could accompany this activity, considerable amount of precip and modest lapse rates do not favor widespread severe. Of more concern, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Latest model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will materialize by mid afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southeast IA. High-level diffluent flow will favor storm-top venting and scattered robust thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the short wave. Thunderstorms should concentrate along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. Dry adiabatic 0-3km lapse rates favor strong downdrafts as PW values will be seasonally high (1.5-1.75 inches). ...New England region... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/15/2024 Read more