Aggregator

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT TO 10 WSW POE TO 30 WNW IER TO 25 E GGG TO 30 NW GGG. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-013-015-017-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079-081-111-119- 127-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC037-067-203-315-343-459-090140- Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT TO 10 WSW POE TO 30 WNW IER TO 25 E GGG TO 30 NW GGG. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-013-015-017-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079-081-111-119- 127-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC037-067-203-315-343-459-090140- Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT TO 10 WSW POE TO 30 WNW IER TO 25 E GGG TO 30 NW GGG. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-013-015-017-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079-081-111-119- 127-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC037-067-203-315-343-459-090140- Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT TO 10 WSW POE TO 30 WNW IER TO 25 E GGG TO 30 NW GGG. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-013-015-017-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079-081-111-119- 127-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC037-067-203-315-343-459-090140- Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT TO 10 WSW POE TO 30 WNW IER TO 25 E GGG TO 30 NW GGG. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-013-015-017-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079-081-111-119- 127-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC037-067-203-315-343-459-090140- Read more

WW 514 TORNADO AR LA TX CW 081500Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 514 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Western and Central Louisiana East and Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1000 AM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Gradual daytime destabilization and a strong atmospheric winds associated with the northward movement of Tropical cyclone Beryl will be favorable for low-topped supercells capable of tornadoes through this afternoon and early evening. This risk will mostly be focused across east/southeast Texas and far western Louisiana this morning, but it will expand north-northeastward across additional parts of east/northeast Texas, western/northern Louisiana, and eventually southern Arkansas through late afternoon and evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles southwest of Port Arthur TX to 45 miles west northwest of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 16040. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082346
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Beryl, located inland over eastern Texas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

...BERYL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS AND THE RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 32.2, -94.8 with movement NNE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082345
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 082345 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 41A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 700 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...BERYL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS AND THE RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 94.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF TYLER TEXAS ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beryl was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 94.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches) based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Texas coast, but should continue to recede overnight. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. The tornado risk will spread into southeast Missouri, northern Tennessee, Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio on Tuesday. RAINFALL: An additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with localized amounts of 12 inches is expected across portions of eastern Texas through tonight. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding is possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to gradually decrease during the next day or so. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

MD 1561 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 514...515... FOR TS BERYL
Mesoscale Discussion 1561 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...TS Beryl Concerning...Tornado Watch 514...515... Valid 082329Z - 090130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 514, 515 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat will be most concentrated from northern Louisiana into central Arkansas this evening. DISCUSSION...Center of TS Beryl is lifting northeast across northeast TX early this evening. Latest radar data suggests the remnant circulation is just south of Longview. As such, strongest low-level shear is now focusing across the ArkLaTex, especially into southern AR where values continue to increase. Latest VWP data from SHV depicts weakening 0-3km SRH values, while 0-3km values are showing a marked increase as far northeast as LZK (300 m2/s2). While a few supercells linger at lower latitudes over central LA, the strongest longer-lived supercells are now concentrated from northwest LA into southwest AR. Over the next several hours the primary corridor of concern will orient itself from north of SHV toward LIT. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33209421 34399308 33689188 32759337 33209421 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 8 22:16:13 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more