Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150519
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure will likely form during the next couple
of days well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week
while the system moves westward. Information on this system can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure will likely form this weekend well offshore
of southwestern Mexico. Some subsequent slow development is
possible, and a tropical depression could form early next week as
the low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Kelly

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N EMP TO 40 NE STJ. ..GOSS..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC017-045-059-087-091-103-111-139-177-209-150540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON OSAGE SHAWNEE WYANDOTTE MOC021-025-033-047-049-061-063-079-081-095-107-117-129-165-177- 150540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB GRUNDY HARRISON JACKSON LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON MERCER PLATTE RAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N EMP TO 40 NE STJ. ..GOSS..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC017-045-059-087-091-103-111-139-177-209-150540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON OSAGE SHAWNEE WYANDOTTE MOC021-025-033-047-049-061-063-079-081-095-107-117-129-165-177- 150540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB GRUNDY HARRISON JACKSON LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON MERCER PLATTE RAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 622 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 142230Z - 150600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwestern Iowa Central to northeastern Kansas Northwestern Missouri East-central and southeastern Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the western end of the watch and move roughly eastward while increasing in coverage through the evening. Large to isolated very large hail is possible early, while the severe-gust threat increases into evening. A tornado or two also is possible -- mainly over a part of the watch across northeastern KS, near an outflow boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southeast of Manhattan KS to 35 miles north northeast of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1904 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1904 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0920 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska...northeastern Kansas...southwestern Iowa...and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622... Valid 150220Z - 150415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 continues. SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues across the Middle Missouri Valley area. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows strong/locally severe storms ongoing within WW 622, though gradually growing upscale into a more linear configuration as compared to earlier. This has lessened the tornado threat that existed near the remnant outflow in northeastern Kansas, with risk now primarily in the form of hail, and locally strong/gusty winds. As the boundary layer gradually stabilizes, risk for severe-caliber wind gusts should slowly lessen. Still, some eventual expansion of the watch eastward may be needed a bit later this evening, as storms near the eastern edge of the WW. ..Goss.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38879796 39679714 40259657 40629654 40919709 41289698 41919562 41819344 41649267 40779281 38829479 38879796 Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N EMP TO 40 WSW LWD TO 10 WNW DSM. ..GOSS..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC121-159-175-150440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON RINGGOLD UNION KSC005-017-043-045-059-085-087-091-103-111-115-139-177-209- 150440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON CHASE DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MARION OSAGE SHAWNEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-095-107-117-129- 165-177-227-150440- MO Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CNK TO 40 NNE CNK TO 35 WSW LNK TO 15 SW OLU. ..GOSS..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-009-029-049-071-077-085-121-129-137-145-155-159-165- 173-175-150240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON CASS DALLAS FREMONT GUTHRIE HARRISON MADISON MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION KSC005-013-017-027-029-041-043-045-053-059-061-085-087-091-103- 111-113-115-117-127-131-139-143-149-157-159-161-169-177-197-201- 209-150240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CNK TO 40 NNE CNK TO 35 WSW LNK TO 15 SW OLU. ..GOSS..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-009-029-049-071-077-085-121-129-137-145-155-159-165- 173-175-150240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON CASS DALLAS FREMONT GUTHRIE HARRISON MADISON MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION KSC005-013-017-027-029-041-043-045-053-059-061-085-087-091-103- 111-113-115-117-127-131-139-143-149-157-159-161-169-177-197-201- 209-150240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON Read more

MD 1903 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1903 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska...and into southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622... Valid 150009Z - 150145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 continues. SUMMARY...A few severe storms -- including a persistent supercell -- are now ongoing across portions of WW 622 near the northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska border. Large hail remains the primary threat, though a damaging outflow gust and/or brief tornado are also possible. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop across the Mid-MO Valley area shows several vigorous updrafts, a couple of which have exhibited transient rotational signatures per area WSR-88D data. The most organized/long-lived cell is moving northeastward across Gage County, though this storm too now appears to be weakening. Overall, the environment supports strong/rotating storms; the combination of a moist (70s dewpoints) and very unstable (3000-plus J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) environment, combined with the presence of a northwest-to-southeast remnant outflow providing focused low-level ascent, suggests additional strong/severe storm development over the next couple of hours. In addition, recent CAM output continues to hint at potential for storm development near/ahead of a surface cold front slowly advancing across central Nebraska, which would be expected to move into/across northwestern portions of WW 622 later this evening. Given a similarly sheared/unstable environment ahead of the front, potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts would likely accompany these storms, presuming development as anticipated. ..Goss.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38889796 39529703 40229695 40769638 40979568 40249512 39359533 38699641 38639754 38889796 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0622 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142342
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure will likely form during the next couple
of days well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next
week while the system moves westward. Information on this system
can also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure will likely form this weekend well offshore
of southwestern Mexico. Some subsequent slow development is
possible, and a tropical depression could form early next week as
the low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi