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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 21:25:33 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 21:09:27 GMT

MD 1560 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 514... FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Texas...western Louisiana...southwestern Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 514... Valid 081948Z - 082145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 514 continues. SUMMARY...An area of potentially tornadic supercells probably will be maintained while spreading north-northeastward in advance of the remnants of Beryl through 4-6 PM CDT. An additional tornado watch may be needed across parts of southwestern into central Arkansas shortly. DISCUSSION...The low-level circulation center of Beryl is now migrating north-northeast of Huntsville, with strongest 2 hour surface pressure rises now inland of the upper Texas coast and falls north of Huntsville shifting toward the Ark-La-Tex. Beneath the mid-level warm core, evaporatively cooled air is spreading out at the surface and stabilizing an enlarging area of eastern Texas. However, upper 70s surface dew points on its northeastern and eastern periphery are maintaining weak to moderate CAPE, in the presence of large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 50+ kt south to southeasterly flow around 850 mb. This has contributed to the evolution of a number of confirmed and potentially tornadic supercells, largely focused within the more strongly convergent right front quadrant (with respect to storm motion). While this forcing spreads north through east of the Shreveport vicinity through much of southwestern Arkansas by 21-23Z, the risk for tornadoes appears likely to persist in the peak late afternoon boundary-layer instability. ..Kerr.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 33569395 33869261 30959252 30869322 31789352 32409450 33569395 Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 515 TORNADO AR 082055Z - 090500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Arkansas * Effective this Monday afternoon from 355 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A moist air mass and the remnants of Beryl and its peripheral strong wind field will overspread the ArkLaTex and broader Arkansas through tonight, with an increasing tornado potential into this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south of Hot Springs AR to 35 miles north northwest of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 514... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14040. ...Guyer Read more

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 082053 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 41...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...BERYL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND TORNADOES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...DEADLY HAZARDS REMAIN AFTER THE STORM INCLUDING DOWNED POWER LINES AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM IMPROPER GENERATOR USE... Corrected typo in Watches and Warnings section SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 95.1W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF TYLER TEXAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * North of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast from north of Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 95.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or overnight and a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km), primarily southeast of the center. A National Ocean Service station near Sabine Pass (TXPT2) recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h), and a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches) based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. The tornado risk will spread into southeast Missouri, northern Tennessee, Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio on Tuesday. RAINFALL: An additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with localized amounts of 12 inches is expected across portions of eastern Texas through tonight. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding is possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the northern and western Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area for the next few hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 082050 CCA TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 41...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Corrected typo in first paragraph Beryl continues to weaken. Satellite images show that the low- and mid-level centers have decoupled, and NWS Doppler wind velocities are decreasing. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, in accordance with radar data and surface observations. Beryl should gradually lose strength and is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or overnight. The intensity forecast is about the same as the last one, except a little stronger in the post-tropical phase near the Great Lakes due to recent global model wind forecasts of some extratropical energy keeping the winds stronger at long range. The storm is moving north-northeastward, faster at 14 kt. Beryl should turn northeastward overnight and accelerate across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley during the next couple of days until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast, though a bit to the west. It is possible this could be a little fast if recent model solutions of more phasing with a mid-latitude trough occurs. Key Messages: 1. Water levels will remain elevated along Galveston Bay and along the coast of Texas from Port O’Connor to Sabine Pass. 2. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected through tonight across portions of the Upper Texas Coast and across eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. 3. Use caution after Beryl passes as deadly hazards remain including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Tuesday across portions of the northern and western Gulf coasts. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 31.3N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0600Z 33.2N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 36.2N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 10/0600Z 39.1N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 10/1800Z 41.6N 83.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 11/0600Z 43.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/1800Z 45.0N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 20:36:09 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 20:36:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 20:34:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 20:34:58 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 082033 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Beryl continues to weaken. Satellite images show that the low- and mid-level centers have decoupled, and NWS Doppler wind velocities are decreasing. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, in accordance with radar data and surface observations. Beryl should gradually lose strength and is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or overnight. The intensity forecast is about the same as the last one, except a little stronger in the post-tropical phase near the Great Lakes due to recent global model wind forecasts of some extratropical energy keeping the winds more stead at long range. The storm is moving north-northeastward, faster at 14 kt. Beryl should turn northeastward overnight and accelerate across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley during the next couple of days until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast, though a bit to the west. It is possible this could be a little fast if recent model solutions of more phasing with a mid-latitude trough occurs. Key Messages: 1. Water levels will remain elevated along Galveston Bay and along the coast of Texas from Port O’Connor to Sabine Pass. 2. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected through tonight across portions of the Upper Texas Coast and across eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. 3. Use caution after Beryl passes as deadly hazards remain including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Tuesday across portions of the northern and western Gulf coasts. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 31.3N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0600Z 33.2N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 36.2N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 10/0600Z 39.1N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 10/1800Z 41.6N 83.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 11/0600Z 43.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/1800Z 45.0N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 082033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SHREVEPORT LA 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) JASPER TX 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) KOUNTZE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 507 WTNT32 KNHC 082033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...BERYL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND TORNADOES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...DEADLY HAZARDS REMAIN AFTER THE STORM INCLUDING DOWNED POWER LINES AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM IMPROPER GENERATOR USE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 95.1W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF TYLER TEXAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * North of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast from north of Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 95.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or overnight and a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km), primarily southeast of the center. A National Ocean Service station near Sabine Pass (TXPT2) recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h), and a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches) based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. The tornado risk will spread into southeast Missouri, northern Tennessee, Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio on Tuesday. RAINFALL: An additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with localized amounts of 12 inches is expected across portions of eastern Texas through tonight. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding is possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the northern and western Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area for the next few hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 082032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 95.1W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 110SE 30SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 95.1W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.2N 93.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 36.2N 91.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 39.1N 87.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.6N 83.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 43.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.0N 77.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 95.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BPT TO 35 WSW POE TO 50 W IER TO 15 SSE GGG TO 20 ENE TYR. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-082140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-082140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more