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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res ensemble guidance. Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern NV tomorrow afternoon, but will most likely occur over areas where fuels are only modestly dry and/or have seen recent rainfall. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend well offshore of
southern Mexico. Some slow development is possible by early next
week as the low moves west-northwestward, remaining offshore of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
far southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression could form as it moves westward. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Bucci

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to evolve into a closed low on Thursday over parts of central/northern MN. As this occurs, a surface low will move from parts of MN/IA toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. ...Midwest into the mid MS Valley vicinity... In the wake of morning convection, moist low-level southwesterly flow will support airmass recovery and robust destabilization by afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. MLCAPE may increase into the 2500-4000 J/kg range, while some increase in midlevel flow across the warm sector will support effective shear of 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment across a relatively broad region. The details of convective development and evolution continue to be uncertain, with generally weak convergence expected along the primary front, and with the location of any outflow boundaries yet to be determined. However, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, both near the front and any other remnant boundaries. A somewhat greater coverage of storms will be possible later Thursday evening from southern WI into parts of IL/MO, in response to a midlevel jet maximum moving through the base of the trough. Supercells with a threat of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible with initial development during the afternoon and early evening, with some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential possible later in the convective evolution. Some threat for at least isolated damaging wind could persist into Thursday night, though the southern/eastern extent of any organized severe potential remains uncertain. ...Eastern NE into western/central IA... There is some signal for at least isolated storm development within a post-frontal regime across parts of NE/IA and vicinity, which would potentially be aided by a low-amplitude shortwave moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. The post-frontal environment will remain favorable for organized convection, with moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear. Some threat for large hail and localized damaging wind could accompany any robust storms within this regime during the afternoon and evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed for parts of this region if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Southern KS into OK... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to evolve into a closed low on Thursday over parts of central/northern MN. As this occurs, a surface low will move from parts of MN/IA toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. ...Midwest into the mid MS Valley vicinity... In the wake of morning convection, moist low-level southwesterly flow will support airmass recovery and robust destabilization by afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. MLCAPE may increase into the 2500-4000 J/kg range, while some increase in midlevel flow across the warm sector will support effective shear of 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment across a relatively broad region. The details of convective development and evolution continue to be uncertain, with generally weak convergence expected along the primary front, and with the location of any outflow boundaries yet to be determined. However, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, both near the front and any other remnant boundaries. A somewhat greater coverage of storms will be possible later Thursday evening from southern WI into parts of IL/MO, in response to a midlevel jet maximum moving through the base of the trough. Supercells with a threat of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible with initial development during the afternoon and early evening, with some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential possible later in the convective evolution. Some threat for at least isolated damaging wind could persist into Thursday night, though the southern/eastern extent of any organized severe potential remains uncertain. ...Eastern NE into western/central IA... There is some signal for at least isolated storm development within a post-frontal regime across parts of NE/IA and vicinity, which would potentially be aided by a low-amplitude shortwave moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. The post-frontal environment will remain favorable for organized convection, with moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear. Some threat for large hail and localized damaging wind could accompany any robust storms within this regime during the afternoon and evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed for parts of this region if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Southern KS into OK... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to evolve into a closed low on Thursday over parts of central/northern MN. As this occurs, a surface low will move from parts of MN/IA toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. ...Midwest into the mid MS Valley vicinity... In the wake of morning convection, moist low-level southwesterly flow will support airmass recovery and robust destabilization by afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. MLCAPE may increase into the 2500-4000 J/kg range, while some increase in midlevel flow across the warm sector will support effective shear of 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment across a relatively broad region. The details of convective development and evolution continue to be uncertain, with generally weak convergence expected along the primary front, and with the location of any outflow boundaries yet to be determined. However, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, both near the front and any other remnant boundaries. A somewhat greater coverage of storms will be possible later Thursday evening from southern WI into parts of IL/MO, in response to a midlevel jet maximum moving through the base of the trough. Supercells with a threat of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible with initial development during the afternoon and early evening, with some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential possible later in the convective evolution. Some threat for at least isolated damaging wind could persist into Thursday night, though the southern/eastern extent of any organized severe potential remains uncertain. ...Eastern NE into western/central IA... There is some signal for at least isolated storm development within a post-frontal regime across parts of NE/IA and vicinity, which would potentially be aided by a low-amplitude shortwave moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. The post-frontal environment will remain favorable for organized convection, with moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear. Some threat for large hail and localized damaging wind could accompany any robust storms within this regime during the afternoon and evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed for parts of this region if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Southern KS into OK... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to evolve into a closed low on Thursday over parts of central/northern MN. As this occurs, a surface low will move from parts of MN/IA toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. ...Midwest into the mid MS Valley vicinity... In the wake of morning convection, moist low-level southwesterly flow will support airmass recovery and robust destabilization by afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. MLCAPE may increase into the 2500-4000 J/kg range, while some increase in midlevel flow across the warm sector will support effective shear of 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment across a relatively broad region. The details of convective development and evolution continue to be uncertain, with generally weak convergence expected along the primary front, and with the location of any outflow boundaries yet to be determined. However, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, both near the front and any other remnant boundaries. A somewhat greater coverage of storms will be possible later Thursday evening from southern WI into parts of IL/MO, in response to a midlevel jet maximum moving through the base of the trough. Supercells with a threat of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible with initial development during the afternoon and early evening, with some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential possible later in the convective evolution. Some threat for at least isolated damaging wind could persist into Thursday night, though the southern/eastern extent of any organized severe potential remains uncertain. ...Eastern NE into western/central IA... There is some signal for at least isolated storm development within a post-frontal regime across parts of NE/IA and vicinity, which would potentially be aided by a low-amplitude shortwave moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. The post-frontal environment will remain favorable for organized convection, with moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear. Some threat for large hail and localized damaging wind could accompany any robust storms within this regime during the afternoon and evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed for parts of this region if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Southern KS into OK... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to evolve into a closed low on Thursday over parts of central/northern MN. As this occurs, a surface low will move from parts of MN/IA toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. ...Midwest into the mid MS Valley vicinity... In the wake of morning convection, moist low-level southwesterly flow will support airmass recovery and robust destabilization by afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. MLCAPE may increase into the 2500-4000 J/kg range, while some increase in midlevel flow across the warm sector will support effective shear of 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment across a relatively broad region. The details of convective development and evolution continue to be uncertain, with generally weak convergence expected along the primary front, and with the location of any outflow boundaries yet to be determined. However, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, both near the front and any other remnant boundaries. A somewhat greater coverage of storms will be possible later Thursday evening from southern WI into parts of IL/MO, in response to a midlevel jet maximum moving through the base of the trough. Supercells with a threat of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible with initial development during the afternoon and early evening, with some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential possible later in the convective evolution. Some threat for at least isolated damaging wind could persist into Thursday night, though the southern/eastern extent of any organized severe potential remains uncertain. ...Eastern NE into western/central IA... There is some signal for at least isolated storm development within a post-frontal regime across parts of NE/IA and vicinity, which would potentially be aided by a low-amplitude shortwave moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. The post-frontal environment will remain favorable for organized convection, with moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear. Some threat for large hail and localized damaging wind could accompany any robust storms within this regime during the afternoon and evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed for parts of this region if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Southern KS into OK... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to evolve into a closed low on Thursday over parts of central/northern MN. As this occurs, a surface low will move from parts of MN/IA toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. ...Midwest into the mid MS Valley vicinity... In the wake of morning convection, moist low-level southwesterly flow will support airmass recovery and robust destabilization by afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. MLCAPE may increase into the 2500-4000 J/kg range, while some increase in midlevel flow across the warm sector will support effective shear of 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment across a relatively broad region. The details of convective development and evolution continue to be uncertain, with generally weak convergence expected along the primary front, and with the location of any outflow boundaries yet to be determined. However, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, both near the front and any other remnant boundaries. A somewhat greater coverage of storms will be possible later Thursday evening from southern WI into parts of IL/MO, in response to a midlevel jet maximum moving through the base of the trough. Supercells with a threat of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible with initial development during the afternoon and early evening, with some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential possible later in the convective evolution. Some threat for at least isolated damaging wind could persist into Thursday night, though the southern/eastern extent of any organized severe potential remains uncertain. ...Eastern NE into western/central IA... There is some signal for at least isolated storm development within a post-frontal regime across parts of NE/IA and vicinity, which would potentially be aided by a low-amplitude shortwave moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. The post-frontal environment will remain favorable for organized convection, with moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear. Some threat for large hail and localized damaging wind could accompany any robust storms within this regime during the afternoon and evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed for parts of this region if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Southern KS into OK... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to evolve into a closed low on Thursday over parts of central/northern MN. As this occurs, a surface low will move from parts of MN/IA toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. ...Midwest into the mid MS Valley vicinity... In the wake of morning convection, moist low-level southwesterly flow will support airmass recovery and robust destabilization by afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. MLCAPE may increase into the 2500-4000 J/kg range, while some increase in midlevel flow across the warm sector will support effective shear of 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment across a relatively broad region. The details of convective development and evolution continue to be uncertain, with generally weak convergence expected along the primary front, and with the location of any outflow boundaries yet to be determined. However, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, both near the front and any other remnant boundaries. A somewhat greater coverage of storms will be possible later Thursday evening from southern WI into parts of IL/MO, in response to a midlevel jet maximum moving through the base of the trough. Supercells with a threat of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible with initial development during the afternoon and early evening, with some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential possible later in the convective evolution. Some threat for at least isolated damaging wind could persist into Thursday night, though the southern/eastern extent of any organized severe potential remains uncertain. ...Eastern NE into western/central IA... There is some signal for at least isolated storm development within a post-frontal regime across parts of NE/IA and vicinity, which would potentially be aided by a low-amplitude shortwave moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. The post-frontal environment will remain favorable for organized convection, with moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear. Some threat for large hail and localized damaging wind could accompany any robust storms within this regime during the afternoon and evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed for parts of this region if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Southern KS into OK... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to evolve into a closed low on Thursday over parts of central/northern MN. As this occurs, a surface low will move from parts of MN/IA toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. ...Midwest into the mid MS Valley vicinity... In the wake of morning convection, moist low-level southwesterly flow will support airmass recovery and robust destabilization by afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. MLCAPE may increase into the 2500-4000 J/kg range, while some increase in midlevel flow across the warm sector will support effective shear of 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment across a relatively broad region. The details of convective development and evolution continue to be uncertain, with generally weak convergence expected along the primary front, and with the location of any outflow boundaries yet to be determined. However, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, both near the front and any other remnant boundaries. A somewhat greater coverage of storms will be possible later Thursday evening from southern WI into parts of IL/MO, in response to a midlevel jet maximum moving through the base of the trough. Supercells with a threat of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible with initial development during the afternoon and early evening, with some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential possible later in the convective evolution. Some threat for at least isolated damaging wind could persist into Thursday night, though the southern/eastern extent of any organized severe potential remains uncertain. ...Eastern NE into western/central IA... There is some signal for at least isolated storm development within a post-frontal regime across parts of NE/IA and vicinity, which would potentially be aided by a low-amplitude shortwave moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. The post-frontal environment will remain favorable for organized convection, with moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear. Some threat for large hail and localized damaging wind could accompany any robust storms within this regime during the afternoon and evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed for parts of this region if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Southern KS into OK... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to evolve into a closed low on Thursday over parts of central/northern MN. As this occurs, a surface low will move from parts of MN/IA toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. ...Midwest into the mid MS Valley vicinity... In the wake of morning convection, moist low-level southwesterly flow will support airmass recovery and robust destabilization by afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. MLCAPE may increase into the 2500-4000 J/kg range, while some increase in midlevel flow across the warm sector will support effective shear of 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment across a relatively broad region. The details of convective development and evolution continue to be uncertain, with generally weak convergence expected along the primary front, and with the location of any outflow boundaries yet to be determined. However, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, both near the front and any other remnant boundaries. A somewhat greater coverage of storms will be possible later Thursday evening from southern WI into parts of IL/MO, in response to a midlevel jet maximum moving through the base of the trough. Supercells with a threat of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible with initial development during the afternoon and early evening, with some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential possible later in the convective evolution. Some threat for at least isolated damaging wind could persist into Thursday night, though the southern/eastern extent of any organized severe potential remains uncertain. ...Eastern NE into western/central IA... There is some signal for at least isolated storm development within a post-frontal regime across parts of NE/IA and vicinity, which would potentially be aided by a low-amplitude shortwave moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. The post-frontal environment will remain favorable for organized convection, with moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear. Some threat for large hail and localized damaging wind could accompany any robust storms within this regime during the afternoon and evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed for parts of this region if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Southern KS into OK... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to evolve into a closed low on Thursday over parts of central/northern MN. As this occurs, a surface low will move from parts of MN/IA toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Great Plains. ...Midwest into the mid MS Valley vicinity... In the wake of morning convection, moist low-level southwesterly flow will support airmass recovery and robust destabilization by afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. MLCAPE may increase into the 2500-4000 J/kg range, while some increase in midlevel flow across the warm sector will support effective shear of 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment across a relatively broad region. The details of convective development and evolution continue to be uncertain, with generally weak convergence expected along the primary front, and with the location of any outflow boundaries yet to be determined. However, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, both near the front and any other remnant boundaries. A somewhat greater coverage of storms will be possible later Thursday evening from southern WI into parts of IL/MO, in response to a midlevel jet maximum moving through the base of the trough. Supercells with a threat of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible with initial development during the afternoon and early evening, with some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential possible later in the convective evolution. Some threat for at least isolated damaging wind could persist into Thursday night, though the southern/eastern extent of any organized severe potential remains uncertain. ...Eastern NE into western/central IA... There is some signal for at least isolated storm development within a post-frontal regime across parts of NE/IA and vicinity, which would potentially be aided by a low-amplitude shortwave moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. The post-frontal environment will remain favorable for organized convection, with moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear. Some threat for large hail and localized damaging wind could accompany any robust storms within this regime during the afternoon and evening. Greater severe probabilities may be needed for parts of this region if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Southern KS into OK... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Dean.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible late this afternoon through the evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...MO Valley area this afternoon through tonight... An MCV over northwest IA will continue eastward today, while clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from central MO to northern AR within a low-level warm advection regime. Warm advection will slowly weaken through the day, but convective outflow with the central MO storm cluster may result in those storms persisting well into the afternoon while spreading southward. Otherwise, outflow from the morning convection will slowly modify from eastern KS into southeast NE, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough over the central High Plains, and an associated surface cold front moving southeastward across northwest KS. The cold front and the front/outflow intersection will focus thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening from central KS to southeast NE/southwest IA, and storms will subsequently spread eastward tonight as one or more storm clusters/MCSs across northern MO/southern IA. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be maintained this afternoon within the modifying outflow across the SLGT risk area, where semi-discrete supercells and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated very large hail (2-2.5 inches in diameter) will also with any persistent supercells, though the severe threat will transition primarily to damaging winds (60-75 mph) by late evening into tonight as storms grow upscale. Farther northwest, a separate clustering of storms is possible in central SD, south of the ongoing convection across southern ND. Surface heating in cloud breaks and weak ascent downstream from an ejecting midlevel trough will help focus thunderstorm development by 21-00z. Low-midlevel vertical shear will not be particularly strong and flow aloft will be strongly backed, which suggests a fairly quick growth into a line segment. Isolated damaging gusts and large hail will be possible for a few hours late this afternoon/evening. ...WY and vicinity this afternoon... An embedded vorticity maximum over southeast ID will progress eastward over WY this afternoon/evening. There will be sufficient low-midlevel moisture and surface heating for high-based thunderstorm development by early afternoon in advance of the vorticity maximum. Given steep low-level lapse rates and modest enhancement to midlevel flow (near 30 kt), strong outflow winds of 50-60 mph will be possible with this convection through the afternoon. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible late this afternoon through the evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...MO Valley area this afternoon through tonight... An MCV over northwest IA will continue eastward today, while clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from central MO to northern AR within a low-level warm advection regime. Warm advection will slowly weaken through the day, but convective outflow with the central MO storm cluster may result in those storms persisting well into the afternoon while spreading southward. Otherwise, outflow from the morning convection will slowly modify from eastern KS into southeast NE, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough over the central High Plains, and an associated surface cold front moving southeastward across northwest KS. The cold front and the front/outflow intersection will focus thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening from central KS to southeast NE/southwest IA, and storms will subsequently spread eastward tonight as one or more storm clusters/MCSs across northern MO/southern IA. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be maintained this afternoon within the modifying outflow across the SLGT risk area, where semi-discrete supercells and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated very large hail (2-2.5 inches in diameter) will also with any persistent supercells, though the severe threat will transition primarily to damaging winds (60-75 mph) by late evening into tonight as storms grow upscale. Farther northwest, a separate clustering of storms is possible in central SD, south of the ongoing convection across southern ND. Surface heating in cloud breaks and weak ascent downstream from an ejecting midlevel trough will help focus thunderstorm development by 21-00z. Low-midlevel vertical shear will not be particularly strong and flow aloft will be strongly backed, which suggests a fairly quick growth into a line segment. Isolated damaging gusts and large hail will be possible for a few hours late this afternoon/evening. ...WY and vicinity this afternoon... An embedded vorticity maximum over southeast ID will progress eastward over WY this afternoon/evening. There will be sufficient low-midlevel moisture and surface heating for high-based thunderstorm development by early afternoon in advance of the vorticity maximum. Given steep low-level lapse rates and modest enhancement to midlevel flow (near 30 kt), strong outflow winds of 50-60 mph will be possible with this convection through the afternoon. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible late this afternoon through the evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...MO Valley area this afternoon through tonight... An MCV over northwest IA will continue eastward today, while clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from central MO to northern AR within a low-level warm advection regime. Warm advection will slowly weaken through the day, but convective outflow with the central MO storm cluster may result in those storms persisting well into the afternoon while spreading southward. Otherwise, outflow from the morning convection will slowly modify from eastern KS into southeast NE, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough over the central High Plains, and an associated surface cold front moving southeastward across northwest KS. The cold front and the front/outflow intersection will focus thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening from central KS to southeast NE/southwest IA, and storms will subsequently spread eastward tonight as one or more storm clusters/MCSs across northern MO/southern IA. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be maintained this afternoon within the modifying outflow across the SLGT risk area, where semi-discrete supercells and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated very large hail (2-2.5 inches in diameter) will also with any persistent supercells, though the severe threat will transition primarily to damaging winds (60-75 mph) by late evening into tonight as storms grow upscale. Farther northwest, a separate clustering of storms is possible in central SD, south of the ongoing convection across southern ND. Surface heating in cloud breaks and weak ascent downstream from an ejecting midlevel trough will help focus thunderstorm development by 21-00z. Low-midlevel vertical shear will not be particularly strong and flow aloft will be strongly backed, which suggests a fairly quick growth into a line segment. Isolated damaging gusts and large hail will be possible for a few hours late this afternoon/evening. ...WY and vicinity this afternoon... An embedded vorticity maximum over southeast ID will progress eastward over WY this afternoon/evening. There will be sufficient low-midlevel moisture and surface heating for high-based thunderstorm development by early afternoon in advance of the vorticity maximum. Given steep low-level lapse rates and modest enhancement to midlevel flow (near 30 kt), strong outflow winds of 50-60 mph will be possible with this convection through the afternoon. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible late this afternoon through the evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...MO Valley area this afternoon through tonight... An MCV over northwest IA will continue eastward today, while clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from central MO to northern AR within a low-level warm advection regime. Warm advection will slowly weaken through the day, but convective outflow with the central MO storm cluster may result in those storms persisting well into the afternoon while spreading southward. Otherwise, outflow from the morning convection will slowly modify from eastern KS into southeast NE, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough over the central High Plains, and an associated surface cold front moving southeastward across northwest KS. The cold front and the front/outflow intersection will focus thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening from central KS to southeast NE/southwest IA, and storms will subsequently spread eastward tonight as one or more storm clusters/MCSs across northern MO/southern IA. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be maintained this afternoon within the modifying outflow across the SLGT risk area, where semi-discrete supercells and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated very large hail (2-2.5 inches in diameter) will also with any persistent supercells, though the severe threat will transition primarily to damaging winds (60-75 mph) by late evening into tonight as storms grow upscale. Farther northwest, a separate clustering of storms is possible in central SD, south of the ongoing convection across southern ND. Surface heating in cloud breaks and weak ascent downstream from an ejecting midlevel trough will help focus thunderstorm development by 21-00z. Low-midlevel vertical shear will not be particularly strong and flow aloft will be strongly backed, which suggests a fairly quick growth into a line segment. Isolated damaging gusts and large hail will be possible for a few hours late this afternoon/evening. ...WY and vicinity this afternoon... An embedded vorticity maximum over southeast ID will progress eastward over WY this afternoon/evening. There will be sufficient low-midlevel moisture and surface heating for high-based thunderstorm development by early afternoon in advance of the vorticity maximum. Given steep low-level lapse rates and modest enhancement to midlevel flow (near 30 kt), strong outflow winds of 50-60 mph will be possible with this convection through the afternoon. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible late this afternoon through the evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...MO Valley area this afternoon through tonight... An MCV over northwest IA will continue eastward today, while clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from central MO to northern AR within a low-level warm advection regime. Warm advection will slowly weaken through the day, but convective outflow with the central MO storm cluster may result in those storms persisting well into the afternoon while spreading southward. Otherwise, outflow from the morning convection will slowly modify from eastern KS into southeast NE, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough over the central High Plains, and an associated surface cold front moving southeastward across northwest KS. The cold front and the front/outflow intersection will focus thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening from central KS to southeast NE/southwest IA, and storms will subsequently spread eastward tonight as one or more storm clusters/MCSs across northern MO/southern IA. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be maintained this afternoon within the modifying outflow across the SLGT risk area, where semi-discrete supercells and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated very large hail (2-2.5 inches in diameter) will also with any persistent supercells, though the severe threat will transition primarily to damaging winds (60-75 mph) by late evening into tonight as storms grow upscale. Farther northwest, a separate clustering of storms is possible in central SD, south of the ongoing convection across southern ND. Surface heating in cloud breaks and weak ascent downstream from an ejecting midlevel trough will help focus thunderstorm development by 21-00z. Low-midlevel vertical shear will not be particularly strong and flow aloft will be strongly backed, which suggests a fairly quick growth into a line segment. Isolated damaging gusts and large hail will be possible for a few hours late this afternoon/evening. ...WY and vicinity this afternoon... An embedded vorticity maximum over southeast ID will progress eastward over WY this afternoon/evening. There will be sufficient low-midlevel moisture and surface heating for high-based thunderstorm development by early afternoon in advance of the vorticity maximum. Given steep low-level lapse rates and modest enhancement to midlevel flow (near 30 kt), strong outflow winds of 50-60 mph will be possible with this convection through the afternoon. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 08/14/2024 Read more