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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N GLS TO 45 ESE UTS TO 15 NNE UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-081740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-081740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more

A farmer near Fallston has irrigated his crops which increases expenses and lowers profits, but it’s necessary. He also chose not to plant butternut squash and Crowder peas. He aims to give his crops an inch of water weekly. Crops are typically planted on a six-week rotation to keep them available all season, but might extend it to planting every eight weeks, due to the drought. A sorghum grower near Belwood has lost some of the sorghum for lack of rain. The crop was planted on June 1 and received about three-quarters of an inch that day and little rain since then. The Shelby Star (Shelby, N.C.), July 8, 2024

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 000 WTNT62 KNHC 081559 CCA TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Corrected Header ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH) recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 95.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 11:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 30.1, -95.6 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 037 WTNT62 KNHC 081558 TCUAT2 Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH) recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 95.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake