1 year ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with
Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest
Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas.
...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across
southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into
the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive
rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini
supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning.
Thinking this trend will continue during the day across
southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear
for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant
of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy
within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more
coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating
cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several
supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado
threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight
period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of
Beryl.
...Southwest Texas...
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas
today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface
dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As
surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and
yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the
front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to
develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized
hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening.
...Northern NM...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the
Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A
belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from
the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via
easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating
to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop
with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this
afternoon.
..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024
Read more1 year ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with
Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest
Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas.
...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across
southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into
the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive
rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini
supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning.
Thinking this trend will continue during the day across
southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear
for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant
of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy
within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more
coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating
cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several
supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado
threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight
period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of
Beryl.
...Southwest Texas...
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas
today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface
dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As
surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and
yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the
front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to
develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized
hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening.
...Northern NM...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the
Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A
belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from
the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via
easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating
to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop
with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this
afternoon.
..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024
Read more1 year ago
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
710
WTNT32 KNHC 081158
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING
RAINFALL OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS FROM BERYL...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 95.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston
Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Mesquite Bay northward to Port Bolivar
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast north of Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 95.8 West. Beryl is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern
Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.
National Weather Service Doppler radar data indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady
weakening is expected as the center moves inland, and Beryl is
expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today and to a
tropical depression on Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). San Bernard National Wildlife Refuge recently
reported a wind gust of 87 mph (140 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
Bay City Regional Airport reported 980 mb (28.94 inches) inside the
eye of Beryl about an hour ago.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the
warning area at this time and will continue for the next several
hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring elsewhere in the
warning area.
Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the tropical storm
warning area along the upper Texas coast and will continue during
the next several hours.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...4-7 ft
Matagorda Bay...4-7 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX...4-6 ft
Galveston Bay...4-6 ft
Mesquite Bay, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today into tonight. Considerable
flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river
flooding is expected.
Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma,
Arkansas and southern Missouri tonight into Tuesday.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur tonight along the upper Texas
Coast, and several tornadoes are possible today across parts of east
Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern
Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day
or two. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster
1 year ago
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
000
WTNT62 KNHC 081100
TCUAT2
Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
600 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL BATTERING EASTERN TEXAS...
...600 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
Brazoria County Airport (KLBX) recently reported a wind gust to
85 mph (137 km/h).
Palacios Municipal Airport (KPSX) recently reported a sustained
wind of 61 mph (98 km) with a gust to 81 mph (130 km/h).
Bay City Regional Airport (KBYY) recently reported a central
pressure of 980.4 mb (28.95 mb) near the eye.
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 95.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster
1 year ago
Issued at 500 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
000
WTNT62 KNHC 080954
TCUAT2
Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS OCCURING IN EAST
TEXAS...
...500 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
Beryl is moving inland over eastern Texas. Life-threatening storm
surge and heavy rainfall is ongoing across portions of Texas.
Damaging winds ongoing along the coast, with strong winds moving
inland.
A mesonet station (SRDT2) in San Bernard recently reported a
sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 91 mph (146 km/h)
A mesonet station (FRPT2) in Freeport recently reported a wind gust
of 92 mph (148 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 96.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM N OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster
1 year ago
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
000
WTNT42 KNHC 080907
TCDAT2
Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
The strengthening forecast by the regional hurricane models began
in earnest just after the last advisory was issued. Doppler radar
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
Beryl regained hurricane strength near 04Z, and intensification
continued until the just-occurred landfall of the 28 n mi wide eye
on the Texas coast. The landfall central pressure was near 979 mb,
and the maximum winds were near 70 kt.
The initial motion is 355/10. Beryl should move northward for the
next 12 h through a break in the subtropical ridge, with the
center moving through eastern Texas. After that, the cyclone
should turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed, with
the cyclone accelerating across the lower Mississippi Valley and
into the Ohio Valley until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h.
The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast.
Now that Beryl is moving inland, it should quickly weaken, with the
system becoming a tropical storm in the next few hours and a
tropical depression in a little over 24 hours. After that, the
cyclone should merge with a frontal system over Mississippi Valley
and become an extratropical low before it dissipates.
Key Messages:
1. There is a continuing danger of life-threatening storm surge
inundation along the coast of Texas from Mesquite Bay to Sabine
Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those
areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Beryl is bringing damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of
the Texas coast this morning. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from
Mesquite Bay to Port Bolivar.
3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected today into
tonight across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also
expected.
4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Tuesday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 28.6N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...ON COAST
12H 08/1800Z 30.4N 95.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 32.7N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 35.0N 92.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0600Z 37.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 10/1800Z 40.0N 85.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/0600Z 42.0N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster
