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WW 429 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 172205Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern Minnesota Southwestern Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage the next few hours near an outflow-reinforced warm front that will shift northward through the watch area. In addition to supercell(s) with large hail and a localized/conditional tornado threat, broader severe-hail and severe-gust threats also are apparent on either side of the boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Fairmont MN to 45 miles east southeast of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into the Permian Basin vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172323Z - 180130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has resulted in moderate destabilization along/east of a diffuse dryline from the OK/TX Panhandles southward into parts of the Permian Basin and southeast NM. A weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across eastern NM may aid in development of isolated thunderstorms this evening. Midlevel flow is rather modest, but sufficient veering with height is supporting effective shear of 30-35 kt across the region, and a couple organized cells/clusters could evolve with time. Rather deep, well-mixed boundary layers and moderate low-level flow will support isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms, with sufficient buoyancy for some hail potential as well. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, with coverage of the severe threat expected to remain rather isolated. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33060355 35870272 36750226 36770197 36610149 35290142 33020182 32040201 32070363 32690366 33060355 Read more

MD 1311 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430... FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1311 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Northeast WY into southeast MT Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430... Valid 172355Z - 180130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and strong/severe gusts will continue this evening. DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell over southeast MT has weakened upon moving into a cooler and less unstable environment. However, a couple stronger cells are ongoing this evening from extreme southeast MT into northeast WY, and additional storm development and intensification remains possible as a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches the region from the interior Northwest. Weak to moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 50+ kt will continue to support occasional supercell structures, with a threat of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. The eastern extent of the short-term severe threat will continue to be limited by strong MLCINH. ..Dean.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 43750633 45800549 46070475 45810438 45250431 44390447 43990476 43710515 43560596 43750633 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ALO TO 30 NNE ALO TO 25 SE MCW TO 40 S MSP. ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-147-191-180140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CHICKASAW CLAYTON FAYETTE FLOYD HOWARD MITCHELL PALO ALTO WINNESHIEK MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-180140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED WABASHA WINONA WIC011-023-043-053-063-081-103-121-123-180140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CPR TO 55 SW GCC TO 35 E SHR TO 35 NE SHR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-075-180140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER WYC005-009-011-027-045-180140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK NIOBRARA WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...far western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172242Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of instances of large hail and damaging wind likely this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated near the surface dryline across far western Texas, near Fort Stockton, TX. Ahead of the dryline, temperatures exceed 100 F with dew point in the mid 40s to upper 50s. A gradient of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is observed in surface objective analysis, along with deep layer shear around 40-45 kts, with strong mid-level capping to the east of the dryline. Given strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MLCAPE, steep lapse rates, and large dewpoint depressions, high-based supercell thunderstorms capable of instances of large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Forcing is largely focused along the dryline and near terrain features. With downstream inhibition, storm coverage is likely to remain fairly isolated. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 29860322 29450381 29560424 29790438 30280428 30880393 31530385 31770374 31850317 31830294 31780276 31530256 30910261 30460277 29860322 Read more

MD 1310 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172350Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with the potential for strong to severe wind will persist across central Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has developed along a remnant outflow boundary across central PA. Ahead of this line of storms, temperatures are in the mid 80s to 90s with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. The downstream air mass is further characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates. Weaker mid-level lapse rates are noted along with generally weak flow aloft. Nonetheless, this environment will support instances of strong to severe wind over the next couple of hours, should this line maintain intensity and progress eastward. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP... LAT...LON 40317865 41137820 41337785 41417750 41197696 40897668 40717665 40377671 40147684 39947701 39877719 39927757 40057828 40317865 Read more

MD 1310 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172350Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with the potential for strong to severe wind will persist across central Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has developed along a remnant outflow boundary across central PA. Ahead of this line of storms, temperatures are in the mid 80s to 90s with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. The downstream air mass is further characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates. Weaker mid-level lapse rates are noted along with generally weak flow aloft. Nonetheless, this environment will support instances of strong to severe wind over the next couple of hours, should this line maintain intensity and progress eastward. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP... LAT...LON 40317865 41137820 41337785 41417750 41197696 40897668 40717665 40377671 40147684 39947701 39877719 39927757 40057828 40317865 Read more

MD 1309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into the Permian Basin vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172323Z - 180130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has resulted in moderate destabilization along/east of a diffuse dryline from the OK/TX Panhandles southward into parts of the Permian Basin and southeast NM. A weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across eastern NM may aid in development of isolated thunderstorms this evening. Midlevel flow is rather modest, but sufficient veering with height is supporting effective shear of 30-35 kt across the region, and a couple organized cells/clusters could evolve with time. Rather deep, well-mixed boundary layers and moderate low-level flow will support isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms, with sufficient buoyancy for some hail potential as well. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, with coverage of the severe threat expected to remain rather isolated. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33060355 35870272 36750226 36770197 36610149 35290142 33020182 32040201 32070363 32690366 33060355 Read more