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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

A Level 1-Mild Drought was declared for the Western Region of Massachusetts by the Energy and Environmental Affairs secretary. According to the Massachusetts Drought Management Plan, a Level 1-Mild Drought indicates the onset of a drought and requires detailed monitoring of drought conditions, close coordination among state and federal agencies, and technical outreach and assistance to the affected municipalities. Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs, July 15, 2024 After several weeks of rainfall, Energy and Environmental Affairs secretary declared the Western Region to be downgraded from Level 1-Mild Drought to Level 0-Normal conditions. Mass.gov Energy and Environmental Affairs (Boston), Aug 13, 2024

MD 1890 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS...AND THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1890 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into Western Kansas...and the far western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130126Z - 130330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Convection has organized into a few linear segments as storms have progressed eastward onto the High Plains of eastern Colorado and the far northwestern TX/western OK Panhandles. These storms could be capable of a few severe gusts, but are moving into a stabilizing environment. Weather Watch issuance is not likely at this time. DISCUSSION...Afternoon thunderstorms have begun to coalesce into two linear convective segments -- one in eastern Colorado, the other in the far western Oklahoma Panhandle -- that will be capable of a few severe gusts this evening. The greatest threat for severe winds will be along the leading edge of any developing bow echoes, though the stabilizing nocturnal boundary-layer could inhibit some of the higher-momentum air from reaching the surface. Additionally, the observed 00Z DDC sounding, along with SPC mesoanalysis, suggests both MCSs are moving into increasing MUCINH that will likely cause convection to weaken with eastward extent. Given these factors, Weather Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35690251 35850286 35980317 36080337 36330357 37670434 38360458 38500470 38640445 38760430 39040412 39240396 39410374 39430358 39340317 39200269 39090222 38860163 38700123 38370091 37950086 37440079 37000081 36510084 36130098 35870134 35750184 35690251 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist over the next several hours across the central High Plains area. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms are ongoing at this time across portions of the central Plains -- from eastern Colorado south to northeastern New Mexico. A modestly moist/moderately unstable airmass persists across this area, with evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analysis indicating that 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE persists. Though mid-level westerlies remain relatively weak (less than 30 kt), low-level easterly flow is contributing to sufficient 0-6km shear for organized storms -- including a couple of supercells. Some clustering of storms is occurring near/east of the Palmer Ridge, with some potential for eastward propagation toward lower elevations -- including embedded risk for locally strong/damaging winds and possibly hail. Still, overall risk should remain limited as the environment slowly stabilizes this evening, and thus will maintain only MRGL risk through the evening. ..Goss.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist over the next several hours across the central High Plains area. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms are ongoing at this time across portions of the central Plains -- from eastern Colorado south to northeastern New Mexico. A modestly moist/moderately unstable airmass persists across this area, with evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analysis indicating that 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE persists. Though mid-level westerlies remain relatively weak (less than 30 kt), low-level easterly flow is contributing to sufficient 0-6km shear for organized storms -- including a couple of supercells. Some clustering of storms is occurring near/east of the Palmer Ridge, with some potential for eastward propagation toward lower elevations -- including embedded risk for locally strong/damaging winds and possibly hail. Still, overall risk should remain limited as the environment slowly stabilizes this evening, and thus will maintain only MRGL risk through the evening. ..Goss.. 08/13/2024 Read more