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WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DGW TO 50 NNE DGW TO 20 SW 2WX. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC009-027-180340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONVERSE NIOBRARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DGW TO 50 NNE DGW TO 20 SW 2WX. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC009-027-180340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONVERSE NIOBRARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DGW TO 50 NNE DGW TO 20 SW 2WX. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC009-027-180340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONVERSE NIOBRARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1312 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429... FOR WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1312 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0829 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...west-central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 429... Valid 180129Z - 180230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 429 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of instances of strong to severe wind will continue eastward this evening. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms ongoing from central WI into far southeastern MN and northeastern IA will continue to pose some risk of strong to severe wind. Confidence in downstream risk beyond WW429 remains uncertain. The downstream environment is moist and unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Should storms be able to develop a strong cold pool and become better organized within this regime, the risk for damaging wind may continue past WW429. Thus far, this line has remained sub-severe, with strongest reflectivity located mostly well behind its own outflow, but trends will be monitored. A downstream watch is unlikely at this time. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43629184 44229118 44679074 44799063 44829015 44708980 44548973 44128967 43668971 43468972 43199032 43199122 43629184 Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DGW TO 15 NNE GCC TO 25 SE GDV. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-025-180240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER FALLON WYC005-009-011-027-045-180240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK NIOBRARA WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 430 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 172230Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeastern Montana East-central and northeastern Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop on the east side of higher terrain around the Bighorns and northern Laramie Range, and move northward to northeastward. Activity should cross a narrow corridor of favorable instability and shear for large hail and severe gusts to result, before weakening closer to the Dakotas border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 110 miles south of Gillette WY to 30 miles west northwest of Baker MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21030. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DBQ TO 15 WNW LSE TO 45 SE EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC023-043-053-063-081-103-123-180240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DBQ TO 15 WNW LSE TO 45 SE EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC023-043-053-063-081-103-123-180240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DBQ TO 15 WNW LSE TO 45 SE EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC023-043-053-063-081-103-123-180240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DBQ TO 15 WNW LSE TO 45 SE EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC023-043-053-063-081-103-123-180240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DBQ TO 15 WNW LSE TO 45 SE EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC023-043-053-063-081-103-123-180240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DBQ TO 15 WNW LSE TO 45 SE EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC023-043-053-063-081-103-123-180240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 429 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 172205Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern Minnesota Southwestern Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage the next few hours near an outflow-reinforced warm front that will shift northward through the watch area. In addition to supercell(s) with large hail and a localized/conditional tornado threat, broader severe-hail and severe-gust threats also are apparent on either side of the boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Fairmont MN to 45 miles east southeast of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into the Permian Basin vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172323Z - 180130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has resulted in moderate destabilization along/east of a diffuse dryline from the OK/TX Panhandles southward into parts of the Permian Basin and southeast NM. A weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across eastern NM may aid in development of isolated thunderstorms this evening. Midlevel flow is rather modest, but sufficient veering with height is supporting effective shear of 30-35 kt across the region, and a couple organized cells/clusters could evolve with time. Rather deep, well-mixed boundary layers and moderate low-level flow will support isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms, with sufficient buoyancy for some hail potential as well. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, with coverage of the severe threat expected to remain rather isolated. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33060355 35870272 36750226 36770197 36610149 35290142 33020182 32040201 32070363 32690366 33060355 Read more

MD 1311 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430... FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1311 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Northeast WY into southeast MT Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430... Valid 172355Z - 180130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and strong/severe gusts will continue this evening. DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell over southeast MT has weakened upon moving into a cooler and less unstable environment. However, a couple stronger cells are ongoing this evening from extreme southeast MT into northeast WY, and additional storm development and intensification remains possible as a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches the region from the interior Northwest. Weak to moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 50+ kt will continue to support occasional supercell structures, with a threat of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. The eastern extent of the short-term severe threat will continue to be limited by strong MLCINH. ..Dean.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 43750633 45800549 46070475 45810438 45250431 44390447 43990476 43710515 43560596 43750633 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more