Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the current Elevated area across eastern and southern NM. West to southwest sustained winds will increase late this morning through this afternoon near and east of the Sacramento Mountains, northeastward through the high plains of NM and the far western panhandles of TX/OK. The latest observational trends and high resolution NWP guidance suggest locally critical meteorological conditions may develop for 2-3 hours across far northeastern NM late this afternoon ahead of a stalling cold front. Less receptive fuels within this region preclude the need for a Critical area though. Much farther west across the Mohave Valley near the NV/AZ/CA borders, a very tight pressure gradient will continue to result in breezy north winds (gusts near 35-45 mph) behind a cold front, where RH is currently below 15 percent. However, wind speeds should quickly decrease after 18Z as a locally enhanced pressure gradient relaxes. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning where the driest fuels remain currently. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent overlapping winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather this afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the current Elevated area across eastern and southern NM. West to southwest sustained winds will increase late this morning through this afternoon near and east of the Sacramento Mountains, northeastward through the high plains of NM and the far western panhandles of TX/OK. The latest observational trends and high resolution NWP guidance suggest locally critical meteorological conditions may develop for 2-3 hours across far northeastern NM late this afternoon ahead of a stalling cold front. Less receptive fuels within this region preclude the need for a Critical area though. Much farther west across the Mohave Valley near the NV/AZ/CA borders, a very tight pressure gradient will continue to result in breezy north winds (gusts near 35-45 mph) behind a cold front, where RH is currently below 15 percent. However, wind speeds should quickly decrease after 18Z as a locally enhanced pressure gradient relaxes. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning where the driest fuels remain currently. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent overlapping winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather this afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the current Elevated area across eastern and southern NM. West to southwest sustained winds will increase late this morning through this afternoon near and east of the Sacramento Mountains, northeastward through the high plains of NM and the far western panhandles of TX/OK. The latest observational trends and high resolution NWP guidance suggest locally critical meteorological conditions may develop for 2-3 hours across far northeastern NM late this afternoon ahead of a stalling cold front. Less receptive fuels within this region preclude the need for a Critical area though. Much farther west across the Mohave Valley near the NV/AZ/CA borders, a very tight pressure gradient will continue to result in breezy north winds (gusts near 35-45 mph) behind a cold front, where RH is currently below 15 percent. However, wind speeds should quickly decrease after 18Z as a locally enhanced pressure gradient relaxes. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning where the driest fuels remain currently. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent overlapping winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather this afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the current Elevated area across eastern and southern NM. West to southwest sustained winds will increase late this morning through this afternoon near and east of the Sacramento Mountains, northeastward through the high plains of NM and the far western panhandles of TX/OK. The latest observational trends and high resolution NWP guidance suggest locally critical meteorological conditions may develop for 2-3 hours across far northeastern NM late this afternoon ahead of a stalling cold front. Less receptive fuels within this region preclude the need for a Critical area though. Much farther west across the Mohave Valley near the NV/AZ/CA borders, a very tight pressure gradient will continue to result in breezy north winds (gusts near 35-45 mph) behind a cold front, where RH is currently below 15 percent. However, wind speeds should quickly decrease after 18Z as a locally enhanced pressure gradient relaxes. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning where the driest fuels remain currently. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent overlapping winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather this afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the current Elevated area across eastern and southern NM. West to southwest sustained winds will increase late this morning through this afternoon near and east of the Sacramento Mountains, northeastward through the high plains of NM and the far western panhandles of TX/OK. The latest observational trends and high resolution NWP guidance suggest locally critical meteorological conditions may develop for 2-3 hours across far northeastern NM late this afternoon ahead of a stalling cold front. Less receptive fuels within this region preclude the need for a Critical area though. Much farther west across the Mohave Valley near the NV/AZ/CA borders, a very tight pressure gradient will continue to result in breezy north winds (gusts near 35-45 mph) behind a cold front, where RH is currently below 15 percent. However, wind speeds should quickly decrease after 18Z as a locally enhanced pressure gradient relaxes. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning where the driest fuels remain currently. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent overlapping winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather this afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the current Elevated area across eastern and southern NM. West to southwest sustained winds will increase late this morning through this afternoon near and east of the Sacramento Mountains, northeastward through the high plains of NM and the far western panhandles of TX/OK. The latest observational trends and high resolution NWP guidance suggest locally critical meteorological conditions may develop for 2-3 hours across far northeastern NM late this afternoon ahead of a stalling cold front. Less receptive fuels within this region preclude the need for a Critical area though. Much farther west across the Mohave Valley near the NV/AZ/CA borders, a very tight pressure gradient will continue to result in breezy north winds (gusts near 35-45 mph) behind a cold front, where RH is currently below 15 percent. However, wind speeds should quickly decrease after 18Z as a locally enhanced pressure gradient relaxes. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning where the driest fuels remain currently. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent overlapping winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather this afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the current Elevated area across eastern and southern NM. West to southwest sustained winds will increase late this morning through this afternoon near and east of the Sacramento Mountains, northeastward through the high plains of NM and the far western panhandles of TX/OK. The latest observational trends and high resolution NWP guidance suggest locally critical meteorological conditions may develop for 2-3 hours across far northeastern NM late this afternoon ahead of a stalling cold front. Less receptive fuels within this region preclude the need for a Critical area though. Much farther west across the Mohave Valley near the NV/AZ/CA borders, a very tight pressure gradient will continue to result in breezy north winds (gusts near 35-45 mph) behind a cold front, where RH is currently below 15 percent. However, wind speeds should quickly decrease after 18Z as a locally enhanced pressure gradient relaxes. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning where the driest fuels remain currently. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent overlapping winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather this afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the current Elevated area across eastern and southern NM. West to southwest sustained winds will increase late this morning through this afternoon near and east of the Sacramento Mountains, northeastward through the high plains of NM and the far western panhandles of TX/OK. The latest observational trends and high resolution NWP guidance suggest locally critical meteorological conditions may develop for 2-3 hours across far northeastern NM late this afternoon ahead of a stalling cold front. Less receptive fuels within this region preclude the need for a Critical area though. Much farther west across the Mohave Valley near the NV/AZ/CA borders, a very tight pressure gradient will continue to result in breezy north winds (gusts near 35-45 mph) behind a cold front, where RH is currently below 15 percent. However, wind speeds should quickly decrease after 18Z as a locally enhanced pressure gradient relaxes. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning where the driest fuels remain currently. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent overlapping winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather this afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the current Elevated area across eastern and southern NM. West to southwest sustained winds will increase late this morning through this afternoon near and east of the Sacramento Mountains, northeastward through the high plains of NM and the far western panhandles of TX/OK. The latest observational trends and high resolution NWP guidance suggest locally critical meteorological conditions may develop for 2-3 hours across far northeastern NM late this afternoon ahead of a stalling cold front. Less receptive fuels within this region preclude the need for a Critical area though. Much farther west across the Mohave Valley near the NV/AZ/CA borders, a very tight pressure gradient will continue to result in breezy north winds (gusts near 35-45 mph) behind a cold front, where RH is currently below 15 percent. However, wind speeds should quickly decrease after 18Z as a locally enhanced pressure gradient relaxes. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning where the driest fuels remain currently. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent overlapping winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather this afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the current Elevated area across eastern and southern NM. West to southwest sustained winds will increase late this morning through this afternoon near and east of the Sacramento Mountains, northeastward through the high plains of NM and the far western panhandles of TX/OK. The latest observational trends and high resolution NWP guidance suggest locally critical meteorological conditions may develop for 2-3 hours across far northeastern NM late this afternoon ahead of a stalling cold front. Less receptive fuels within this region preclude the need for a Critical area though. Much farther west across the Mohave Valley near the NV/AZ/CA borders, a very tight pressure gradient will continue to result in breezy north winds (gusts near 35-45 mph) behind a cold front, where RH is currently below 15 percent. However, wind speeds should quickly decrease after 18Z as a locally enhanced pressure gradient relaxes. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning where the driest fuels remain currently. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent overlapping winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather this afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into evening over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Middle Missouri Valley/Central Plains... In the short term, a moderately organized quasi-linear segment over far northeast Minnesota/Arrowhead could pose a localized severe risk this morning, although overall severe potential has waned in the predawn hours and this downward intensity trend should generally continue as it encounters a more stable air mass downstream. Otherwise, a prominent mid/upper-level trough over the northern High Plains early today will continue an east-northeastward progression over the Dakotas/northern Minnesota through tonight. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern CONUS anticyclone dominates and builds west into the Ohio Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern South Dakota, across northern Minnesota into Ontario by mid-afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeastward, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection by late afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper Mississippi Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop, including west-central/southwest Kansas, and potentially toward the Colorado/Oklahoma/Kansas border region. The primary risk for organized and more intense updrafts will be during the late afternoon through early evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to upstate New York/northern New England... Water-vapor/regional radar imagery reflect multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and MCVs regionally early today, occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will contribute to ample destabilization across a broad portion of the upper Ohio River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs, with localized downbursts/strong wind gusts regionally possible through the diurnal heating cycle. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly winds should strengthen tonight toward the coast in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Current thinking is that mini-supercell-conducive ingredients will remain focused offshore through tonight, but this scenario will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into evening over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Middle Missouri Valley/Central Plains... In the short term, a moderately organized quasi-linear segment over far northeast Minnesota/Arrowhead could pose a localized severe risk this morning, although overall severe potential has waned in the predawn hours and this downward intensity trend should generally continue as it encounters a more stable air mass downstream. Otherwise, a prominent mid/upper-level trough over the northern High Plains early today will continue an east-northeastward progression over the Dakotas/northern Minnesota through tonight. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern CONUS anticyclone dominates and builds west into the Ohio Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern South Dakota, across northern Minnesota into Ontario by mid-afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeastward, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection by late afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper Mississippi Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop, including west-central/southwest Kansas, and potentially toward the Colorado/Oklahoma/Kansas border region. The primary risk for organized and more intense updrafts will be during the late afternoon through early evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to upstate New York/northern New England... Water-vapor/regional radar imagery reflect multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and MCVs regionally early today, occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will contribute to ample destabilization across a broad portion of the upper Ohio River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs, with localized downbursts/strong wind gusts regionally possible through the diurnal heating cycle. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly winds should strengthen tonight toward the coast in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Current thinking is that mini-supercell-conducive ingredients will remain focused offshore through tonight, but this scenario will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into evening over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Middle Missouri Valley/Central Plains... In the short term, a moderately organized quasi-linear segment over far northeast Minnesota/Arrowhead could pose a localized severe risk this morning, although overall severe potential has waned in the predawn hours and this downward intensity trend should generally continue as it encounters a more stable air mass downstream. Otherwise, a prominent mid/upper-level trough over the northern High Plains early today will continue an east-northeastward progression over the Dakotas/northern Minnesota through tonight. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern CONUS anticyclone dominates and builds west into the Ohio Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern South Dakota, across northern Minnesota into Ontario by mid-afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeastward, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection by late afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper Mississippi Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop, including west-central/southwest Kansas, and potentially toward the Colorado/Oklahoma/Kansas border region. The primary risk for organized and more intense updrafts will be during the late afternoon through early evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to upstate New York/northern New England... Water-vapor/regional radar imagery reflect multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and MCVs regionally early today, occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will contribute to ample destabilization across a broad portion of the upper Ohio River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs, with localized downbursts/strong wind gusts regionally possible through the diurnal heating cycle. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly winds should strengthen tonight toward the coast in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Current thinking is that mini-supercell-conducive ingredients will remain focused offshore through tonight, but this scenario will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into evening over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Middle Missouri Valley/Central Plains... In the short term, a moderately organized quasi-linear segment over far northeast Minnesota/Arrowhead could pose a localized severe risk this morning, although overall severe potential has waned in the predawn hours and this downward intensity trend should generally continue as it encounters a more stable air mass downstream. Otherwise, a prominent mid/upper-level trough over the northern High Plains early today will continue an east-northeastward progression over the Dakotas/northern Minnesota through tonight. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern CONUS anticyclone dominates and builds west into the Ohio Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern South Dakota, across northern Minnesota into Ontario by mid-afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeastward, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection by late afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper Mississippi Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop, including west-central/southwest Kansas, and potentially toward the Colorado/Oklahoma/Kansas border region. The primary risk for organized and more intense updrafts will be during the late afternoon through early evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to upstate New York/northern New England... Water-vapor/regional radar imagery reflect multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and MCVs regionally early today, occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will contribute to ample destabilization across a broad portion of the upper Ohio River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs, with localized downbursts/strong wind gusts regionally possible through the diurnal heating cycle. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly winds should strengthen tonight toward the coast in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Current thinking is that mini-supercell-conducive ingredients will remain focused offshore through tonight, but this scenario will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into evening over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Middle Missouri Valley/Central Plains... In the short term, a moderately organized quasi-linear segment over far northeast Minnesota/Arrowhead could pose a localized severe risk this morning, although overall severe potential has waned in the predawn hours and this downward intensity trend should generally continue as it encounters a more stable air mass downstream. Otherwise, a prominent mid/upper-level trough over the northern High Plains early today will continue an east-northeastward progression over the Dakotas/northern Minnesota through tonight. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern CONUS anticyclone dominates and builds west into the Ohio Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern South Dakota, across northern Minnesota into Ontario by mid-afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeastward, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection by late afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper Mississippi Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop, including west-central/southwest Kansas, and potentially toward the Colorado/Oklahoma/Kansas border region. The primary risk for organized and more intense updrafts will be during the late afternoon through early evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to upstate New York/northern New England... Water-vapor/regional radar imagery reflect multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and MCVs regionally early today, occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will contribute to ample destabilization across a broad portion of the upper Ohio River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs, with localized downbursts/strong wind gusts regionally possible through the diurnal heating cycle. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly winds should strengthen tonight toward the coast in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Current thinking is that mini-supercell-conducive ingredients will remain focused offshore through tonight, but this scenario will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/18/2024 Read more

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BRD TO HIB TO 40 ENE INL. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-137-181340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON ST. LOUIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 432 SEVERE TSTM MN 180710Z - 181400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota * Effective this Tuesday morning from 210 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of convection will move east-northeastward across northern Minnesota overnight, with other strong to potentially severe storms preceding it, with locally damaging winds and some hail possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Detroit Lakes MN to 20 miles south southeast of Ely MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 431... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1316 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432... FOR NORTHEAST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1316 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...northeast MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432... Valid 181103Z - 181230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432 continues. SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm gusts of 45-60 mph remain possible across portions of northeast Minnesota the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...An organized line of thunderstorms will continue shifting east across northeast MN the next couple of hours. Measured gusts have mostly been in the 45-60 mph range over the past hour. Moderate elevated instability amid strong vertical shear should maintain thunderstorm intensity for another 1-2 hours. With eastward extent, this activity may weaken as it approaches the MN Arrowhead/Lake Superior where temperatures are cooler and an earlier cluster of thunderstorms has likely modified the airmass, resulting in weaker instability. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 48759320 48429200 46909188 46389258 46139390 46429483 46929492 48019427 48479391 48759320 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BRD TO 50 WNW HIB TO 25 ENE INL. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-035-061-137-181240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CROW WING ITASCA ST. LOUIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more