Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is not currently anticipated. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation across the central High Plains during the overnight hours. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is not currently anticipated. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation across the central High Plains during the overnight hours. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is not currently anticipated. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation across the central High Plains during the overnight hours. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is not currently anticipated. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation across the central High Plains during the overnight hours. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is not currently anticipated. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation across the central High Plains during the overnight hours. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120523
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

The fishing closure in Shenandoah National Park was lifted on August 12 after Hurricane Debby brought 4 to 8 inches of rain to the park. WJLA (Arlington, Va.), Aug 12, 2024 All rivers and streams in Shenandoah National Park were closed to fishing due to low flows and high water temperatures. Some sections of rivers were completely dry. The closure will end when stream conditions improve. WJLA (Arlington, Va.), June 28, 2024

MD 1884 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619... FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1884 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Areas affected...West-central Nebraska...Northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619... Valid 120047Z - 120245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will likely continue for an hour or two, before becoming marginal. No additional weather watch issuance is expected. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery shows scattered to widely scattered strong to severe storms located from north-central Nebraska into far northwest Kansas. The storms are located to the east of an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will continue to be favorable for severe storms over the next couple of hours. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. However, the storms will move eastward into the central Plains, where instability is weaker and a capping inversion is present. This will result in a gradual weakening trend during the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 42180005 41940074 41300108 39750174 39120182 38760162 38660110 38730055 39220024 41709934 42180005 Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE AKO TO 30 S VTN. ..BROYLES..08/12/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-095-115-120240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON PHILLIPS SEDGWICK KSC109-181-193-199-120240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC029-091-101-117-135-120240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE HOOKER KEITH MCPHERSON PERKINS Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE AKO TO 30 S VTN. ..BROYLES..08/12/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-095-115-120240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON PHILLIPS SEDGWICK KSC109-181-193-199-120240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC029-091-101-117-135-120240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE HOOKER KEITH MCPHERSON PERKINS Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE AKO TO 30 S VTN. ..BROYLES..08/12/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-095-115-120240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON PHILLIPS SEDGWICK KSC109-181-193-199-120240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC029-091-101-117-135-120240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE HOOKER KEITH MCPHERSON PERKINS Read more

WW 619 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 112040Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are strengthening across the Nebraska panhandle and northeast Colorado. This activity will spread eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northwest of Mullen NE to 40 miles south of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 618... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the central High Plains early this evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado for the next few hours. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging southeast across the High Plains of SD/NE. This feature is forecast to approach the mid MO Valley by sunrise. Scattered convection developed in response to the short wave across SD/NE with more isolated activity noted into eastern CO. Over the last hour or so, the primary corridor of robust updrafts is focusing along an instability axis that extends from western NE into western KS. These storms will continue to propagate south along this zone of stronger buoyancy, especially as northwesterly flow dominates the High Plains in the wake of the short wave. Boundary-layer airmass over much of the lower central Plains is not particularly unstable so convection is expected to weaken as it advances atop this cooler, more stable air. For the next few hours hail/wind could accompany the storms from north of LBF to south of GLD. Gusty winds may also be noted with convection across the Great Basin into western CO for the next few hours. Numerous showers/thunderstorms have developed across southern UT/northern AZ into western CO. 00z sounding from GJT exhibits around 400 J/kg MLCAPE with steep 0-3km lapse rates. After sunset low-levels should cool and the prospects for severe gusts should diminish. ..Darrow.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the central High Plains early this evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado for the next few hours. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging southeast across the High Plains of SD/NE. This feature is forecast to approach the mid MO Valley by sunrise. Scattered convection developed in response to the short wave across SD/NE with more isolated activity noted into eastern CO. Over the last hour or so, the primary corridor of robust updrafts is focusing along an instability axis that extends from western NE into western KS. These storms will continue to propagate south along this zone of stronger buoyancy, especially as northwesterly flow dominates the High Plains in the wake of the short wave. Boundary-layer airmass over much of the lower central Plains is not particularly unstable so convection is expected to weaken as it advances atop this cooler, more stable air. For the next few hours hail/wind could accompany the storms from north of LBF to south of GLD. Gusty winds may also be noted with convection across the Great Basin into western CO for the next few hours. Numerous showers/thunderstorms have developed across southern UT/northern AZ into western CO. 00z sounding from GJT exhibits around 400 J/kg MLCAPE with steep 0-3km lapse rates. After sunset low-levels should cool and the prospects for severe gusts should diminish. ..Darrow.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the central High Plains early this evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado for the next few hours. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging southeast across the High Plains of SD/NE. This feature is forecast to approach the mid MO Valley by sunrise. Scattered convection developed in response to the short wave across SD/NE with more isolated activity noted into eastern CO. Over the last hour or so, the primary corridor of robust updrafts is focusing along an instability axis that extends from western NE into western KS. These storms will continue to propagate south along this zone of stronger buoyancy, especially as northwesterly flow dominates the High Plains in the wake of the short wave. Boundary-layer airmass over much of the lower central Plains is not particularly unstable so convection is expected to weaken as it advances atop this cooler, more stable air. For the next few hours hail/wind could accompany the storms from north of LBF to south of GLD. Gusty winds may also be noted with convection across the Great Basin into western CO for the next few hours. Numerous showers/thunderstorms have developed across southern UT/northern AZ into western CO. 00z sounding from GJT exhibits around 400 J/kg MLCAPE with steep 0-3km lapse rates. After sunset low-levels should cool and the prospects for severe gusts should diminish. ..Darrow.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the central High Plains early this evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado for the next few hours. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging southeast across the High Plains of SD/NE. This feature is forecast to approach the mid MO Valley by sunrise. Scattered convection developed in response to the short wave across SD/NE with more isolated activity noted into eastern CO. Over the last hour or so, the primary corridor of robust updrafts is focusing along an instability axis that extends from western NE into western KS. These storms will continue to propagate south along this zone of stronger buoyancy, especially as northwesterly flow dominates the High Plains in the wake of the short wave. Boundary-layer airmass over much of the lower central Plains is not particularly unstable so convection is expected to weaken as it advances atop this cooler, more stable air. For the next few hours hail/wind could accompany the storms from north of LBF to south of GLD. Gusty winds may also be noted with convection across the Great Basin into western CO for the next few hours. Numerous showers/thunderstorms have developed across southern UT/northern AZ into western CO. 00z sounding from GJT exhibits around 400 J/kg MLCAPE with steep 0-3km lapse rates. After sunset low-levels should cool and the prospects for severe gusts should diminish. ..Darrow.. 08/12/2024 Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CDR TO 40 NW PHP. ..BROYLES..08/11/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-055-071-093-095-102-103-121-112340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON JACKSON MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more