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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains... A pronounced upper trough is currently evident over the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to eject into the northern High Plains by 19/00z, then across MB/upper Red River region by the end of the period. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern US anticyclone dominates and builds west into the OH Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern SD, across northern MN into western ON by mid afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeast and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection later in the day. Early in the period, strong low-level warm advection will prove instrumental in a zone of robust convection across the upper Red River Valley into western ON. As the LLJ lifts northeast in response to the short wave, the majority of elevated convection will progress north of the international border. Of more significance will be convection that develops later in the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift and this should aid buoyancy for potential robust updrafts. Strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper MS Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop. The primary risk for organized updrafts will be during the late afternoon/evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley into upstate NY... Water-vapor imagery depicts at least one significant disturbance rotating northeast around the anticyclone. This feature is currently located over IL and should contribute to diurnally-enhanced convection later today. Current trends/model guidance suggest this disturbance will advect into lower MI by 18z, then into southern ON by early evening. Surface heating should contribute to destabilization across the upper OH Valley into upstate NY and isolated-scattered thunderstorms will once again develop. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this weak-modestly sheared activity. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains... A pronounced upper trough is currently evident over the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to eject into the northern High Plains by 19/00z, then across MB/upper Red River region by the end of the period. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern US anticyclone dominates and builds west into the OH Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern SD, across northern MN into western ON by mid afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeast and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection later in the day. Early in the period, strong low-level warm advection will prove instrumental in a zone of robust convection across the upper Red River Valley into western ON. As the LLJ lifts northeast in response to the short wave, the majority of elevated convection will progress north of the international border. Of more significance will be convection that develops later in the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift and this should aid buoyancy for potential robust updrafts. Strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper MS Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop. The primary risk for organized updrafts will be during the late afternoon/evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley into upstate NY... Water-vapor imagery depicts at least one significant disturbance rotating northeast around the anticyclone. This feature is currently located over IL and should contribute to diurnally-enhanced convection later today. Current trends/model guidance suggest this disturbance will advect into lower MI by 18z, then into southern ON by early evening. Surface heating should contribute to destabilization across the upper OH Valley into upstate NY and isolated-scattered thunderstorms will once again develop. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this weak-modestly sheared activity. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central High Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains... A pronounced upper trough is currently evident over the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to eject into the northern High Plains by 19/00z, then across MB/upper Red River region by the end of the period. While weak mid-level height falls will extend along this corridor early, much of the CONUS will actually experience neutral-weak height rises as the eastern US anticyclone dominates and builds west into the OH Valley. This evolution will result in a notable surface low tracking from eastern SD, across northern MN into western ON by mid afternoon. Building surface pressures over the Plains will force a cold front southeast and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially strong/severe convection later in the day. Early in the period, strong low-level warm advection will prove instrumental in a zone of robust convection across the upper Red River Valley into western ON. As the LLJ lifts northeast in response to the short wave, the majority of elevated convection will progress north of the international border. Of more significance will be convection that develops later in the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift and this should aid buoyancy for potential robust updrafts. Strongest mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be noted across the upper MS Valley, but adequate shear will extend the length of the front into the central High Plains where a few supercells are expected to develop. The primary risk for organized updrafts will be during the late afternoon/evening hours when instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley into upstate NY... Water-vapor imagery depicts at least one significant disturbance rotating northeast around the anticyclone. This feature is currently located over IL and should contribute to diurnally-enhanced convection later today. Current trends/model guidance suggest this disturbance will advect into lower MI by 18z, then into southern ON by early evening. Surface heating should contribute to destabilization across the upper OH Valley into upstate NY and isolated-scattered thunderstorms will once again develop. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this weak-modestly sheared activity. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/18/2024 Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE RAP TO 35 ESE BIS TO 40 NNW JMS. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-021-027-029-031-039-043-045-047-051-093-180640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH STUTSMAN SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-055-065-071-075-089-107-117-119-129- 137-180640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON JONES MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH ZIEBACH Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180517
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

After ample rainfall across parts of Florida, counties were rescinding burn bans. The Glades County Commissioners issued a burn ban this week after determining emergency conditions including extreme drought and related weather concerns existed. Glades County is one of ten other counties with a burn ban in effect, including Brevard, Charlotte, Collier, Desoto, Hendry, Highlands, Indian River, Polk, Sarasota and Seminole counties. WGCU 90.1 FM Fort Myers (Fla.), May 30, 2024 A countywide burn ban took effect in Manatee County due to ongoing drought and the heightened fire risk. All outdoor burning was prohibited, as was the use and discharge of fireworks and sparklers. WTSP 10 Tampa Bay (Fla.), June 3, 2024 A burn ban took effect in Okeechobee County due to dry conditions. Trash fires, campfires, bonfires and the use of burn barrels is prohibited. WPBF-TV ABC 25 West Palm Beach (Fla.), June 6, 2024 A local state of emergency and a countywide burn ban took effect on June 10 for St. Lucie County. WQCS-FM (Fort Pierce, Fla.), June 10, 2024 The Manatee Board of County Commissioners met for an emergency session and extended the burn ban on all outdoor burning and the use of fireworks and sparklers. The burn ban will remain in effect for another seven days. WWSB-TV ABC 7 My Sun Coast Sarasota (Fla.), June 10, 2024

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-015-021-027-029-031-039-043-045-047-051-059-085-093-103- 180540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BURLEIGH DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON SIOUX STUTSMAN WELLS SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-055-065-071-075-089-107-117-119-129- 137-180540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON JONES MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH ZIEBACH Read more

MD 1313 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1313 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Northern NE Panhandle into western/central SD and southern/central ND Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 180219Z - 180415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for strong to severe storms may increase with time tonight. DISCUSSION...A warm front is draped across northern NE into southeast SD this evening, with some elevated convection gradually increasing over southwest SD into extreme eastern WY, and also much farther north into western ND. An approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong southerly low-level jet will support an increase in elevated convection north of the front with time tonight. Very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 00Z LBF and UNR soundings), moderate to strong elevated buoyancy, and effective shear of 50+ kt will support organized convection. There will be some potential for elevated supercells with an attendant hail threat, though a tendency toward more of a cluster or linear mode with time could temper hail potential to some extent. Localized strong/severe gusts will also be possible, especially if organized upscale growth occurs. Watch issuance is possible over parts of the area later this evening in response to these threats. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 44960341 47320138 47449978 47119785 45349813 44359851 43929874 43399915 43110053 42920148 42760291 42660393 44960341 Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0431 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DGW TO 50 NNE DGW TO 20 SW 2WX. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC009-027-180340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONVERSE NIOBRARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DGW TO 50 NNE DGW TO 20 SW 2WX. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC009-027-180340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONVERSE NIOBRARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DGW TO 50 NNE DGW TO 20 SW 2WX. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC009-027-180340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONVERSE NIOBRARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DGW TO 50 NNE DGW TO 20 SW 2WX. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC009-027-180340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONVERSE NIOBRARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DGW TO 50 NNE DGW TO 20 SW 2WX. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC009-027-180340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONVERSE NIOBRARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DGW TO 50 NNE DGW TO 20 SW 2WX. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC009-027-180340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONVERSE NIOBRARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1312 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429... FOR WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1312 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0829 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...west-central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 429... Valid 180129Z - 180230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 429 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of instances of strong to severe wind will continue eastward this evening. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms ongoing from central WI into far southeastern MN and northeastern IA will continue to pose some risk of strong to severe wind. Confidence in downstream risk beyond WW429 remains uncertain. The downstream environment is moist and unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Should storms be able to develop a strong cold pool and become better organized within this regime, the risk for damaging wind may continue past WW429. Thus far, this line has remained sub-severe, with strongest reflectivity located mostly well behind its own outflow, but trends will be monitored. A downstream watch is unlikely at this time. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43629184 44229118 44679074 44799063 44829015 44708980 44548973 44128967 43668971 43468972 43199032 43199122 43629184 Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DGW TO 15 NNE GCC TO 25 SE GDV. ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-025-180240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER FALLON WYC005-009-011-027-045-180240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK NIOBRARA WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 430 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 172230Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeastern Montana East-central and northeastern Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop on the east side of higher terrain around the Bighorns and northern Laramie Range, and move northward to northeastward. Activity should cross a narrow corridor of favorable instability and shear for large hail and severe gusts to result, before weakening closer to the Dakotas border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 110 miles south of Gillette WY to 30 miles west northwest of Baker MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21030. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DBQ TO 15 WNW LSE TO 45 SE EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC023-043-053-063-081-103-123-180240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DBQ TO 15 WNW LSE TO 45 SE EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC023-043-053-063-081-103-123-180240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more