Aggregator

MD 1308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...far western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172242Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of instances of large hail and damaging wind likely this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated near the surface dryline across far western Texas, near Fort Stockton, TX. Ahead of the dryline, temperatures exceed 100 F with dew point in the mid 40s to upper 50s. A gradient of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is observed in surface objective analysis, along with deep layer shear around 40-45 kts, with strong mid-level capping to the east of the dryline. Given strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MLCAPE, steep lapse rates, and large dewpoint depressions, high-based supercell thunderstorms capable of instances of large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Forcing is largely focused along the dryline and near terrain features. With downstream inhibition, storm coverage is likely to remain fairly isolated. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 29860322 29450381 29560424 29790438 30280428 30880393 31530385 31770374 31850317 31830294 31780276 31530256 30910261 30460277 29860322 Read more

MD 1310 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172350Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with the potential for strong to severe wind will persist across central Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has developed along a remnant outflow boundary across central PA. Ahead of this line of storms, temperatures are in the mid 80s to 90s with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. The downstream air mass is further characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates. Weaker mid-level lapse rates are noted along with generally weak flow aloft. Nonetheless, this environment will support instances of strong to severe wind over the next couple of hours, should this line maintain intensity and progress eastward. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP... LAT...LON 40317865 41137820 41337785 41417750 41197696 40897668 40717665 40377671 40147684 39947701 39877719 39927757 40057828 40317865 Read more

MD 1310 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172350Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with the potential for strong to severe wind will persist across central Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has developed along a remnant outflow boundary across central PA. Ahead of this line of storms, temperatures are in the mid 80s to 90s with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. The downstream air mass is further characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates. Weaker mid-level lapse rates are noted along with generally weak flow aloft. Nonetheless, this environment will support instances of strong to severe wind over the next couple of hours, should this line maintain intensity and progress eastward. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP... LAT...LON 40317865 41137820 41337785 41417750 41197696 40897668 40717665 40377671 40147684 39947701 39877719 39927757 40057828 40317865 Read more

MD 1309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into the Permian Basin vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172323Z - 180130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has resulted in moderate destabilization along/east of a diffuse dryline from the OK/TX Panhandles southward into parts of the Permian Basin and southeast NM. A weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across eastern NM may aid in development of isolated thunderstorms this evening. Midlevel flow is rather modest, but sufficient veering with height is supporting effective shear of 30-35 kt across the region, and a couple organized cells/clusters could evolve with time. Rather deep, well-mixed boundary layers and moderate low-level flow will support isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms, with sufficient buoyancy for some hail potential as well. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, with coverage of the severe threat expected to remain rather isolated. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33060355 35870272 36750226 36770197 36610149 35290142 33020182 32040201 32070363 32690366 33060355 Read more

MD 1308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...far western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172242Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of instances of large hail and damaging wind likely this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated near the surface dryline across far western Texas, near Fort Stockton, TX. Ahead of the dryline, temperatures exceed 100 F with dew point in the mid 40s to upper 50s. A gradient of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is observed in surface objective analysis, along with deep layer shear around 40-45 kts, with strong mid-level capping to the east of the dryline. Given strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MLCAPE, steep lapse rates, and large dewpoint depressions, high-based supercell thunderstorms capable of instances of large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Forcing is largely focused along the dryline and near terrain features. With downstream inhibition, storm coverage is likely to remain fairly isolated. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 29860322 29450381 29560424 29790438 30280428 30880393 31530385 31770374 31850317 31830294 31780276 31530256 30910261 30460277 29860322 Read more

MD 1307 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NE...EXTREME SOUTHERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Western into central NE...extreme southern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172235Z - 180000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development is possible by early evening. Should development occur, a few tornadoes, very large hail, and isolated severe gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...A warm front is draped from west-central into northeast NE late this afternoon. Near and south of the warm front, rich low-level moisture beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 21Z LBF sounding) has resulted in strong destabilization, with MLCAPE increasing above 3000 J/kg. Meanwhile, favorably veering wind profiles with height (also noted on the 21Z LBF sounding) are supporting effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for supercells. Low-level shear/SRH is already rather strong near and just north of the warm front, and will continue to increase with time as a southerly low-level jet intensifies into the evening. Uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of surface-based storm development into the early evening, given the rather strong capping related to the very well-defined EML. However, the increasing low-level jet may aid in development of one or two supercells near the warm front by early evening, with some development also possible farther south into the warmer and more well-mixed environment. Any sustained supercells near the warm-frontal zone would pose a tornado threat, in addition to potential for very large hail and isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance will become increasingly probable for parts of the area if supercell development appears imminent. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 40649991 40600163 40880195 41190218 41390248 41910291 42130293 42450288 42730250 42990175 43060111 43100028 43089916 42079817 41239828 40709913 40609938 40649991 Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-075-180040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER WYC005-009-011-019-027-045-180040- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK JOHNSON NIOBRARA WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 430 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 172230Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeastern Montana East-central and northeastern Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop on the east side of higher terrain around the Bighorns and northern Laramie Range, and move northward to northeastward. Activity should cross a narrow corridor of favorable instability and shear for large hail and severe gusts to result, before weakening closer to the Dakotas border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 110 miles south of Gillette WY to 30 miles west northwest of Baker MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21030. ...Edwards Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0430 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Medina Lake has dropped to 2.4% of capacity, its lowest in the last 60 years. The depleted lake has a dire effect on local businesses. One café worked to increase its social media presence and began online sales to stay open. Homeowners have also seen a drop in property values with the lake so low. WOAI News 4 San Antonio (Texas), June 13, 2024

Arizona's searing hot summers and ongoing drought leave wildlife in Tucson without enough drinking water. The Arizona Game and Fish Department is addressing the need by maintaining 3,000 wildlife waters across the state. KGUN 9 Online (Tucson, Ariz.), June 12, 2024

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 17 22:16:08 UTC 2024.

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0429 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0429 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 429 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 172205Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern Minnesota Southwestern Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage the next few hours near an outflow-reinforced warm front that will shift northward through the watch area. In addition to supercell(s) with large hail and a localized/conditional tornado threat, broader severe-hail and severe-gust threats also are apparent on either side of the boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Fairmont MN to 45 miles east southeast of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1306 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1306 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming...southeastern Montana and far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172045Z - 172215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop off the Bighorns and higher terrain later this afternoon. A few supercells may evolve with a risk for large hail and damaging winds. There remains some uncertainty on the southern and eastern extent of the severe risk, but a WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...Across portions of central and northeastern WY, afternoon visible imagery showed increasing vertical development of cumulus near the Bighorn Mountains and higher terrain. Over the last several hours, diurnal heating and upslope flow have increased ahead of an approaching upper trough and a deepening surface low over south-central WY. As forcing for ascent increases, remaining inhibition will quickly be removed supporting thunderstorm development this afternoon. Confidence in convective development remains highest across north-central WY near the Bighorns where low-level upslope flow is maximized beneath the coldest mid-level temperatures. However, strong low-level mass response is occurring ahead of the deepening surface low over southeastern WY which could support an isolated storm or two farther south. While low-level moisture is not overly deep or rich, low 50s F surface dewpoints have surged westward into eastern WY and portions of southern MT. With 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE in place, a few stronger updrafts are likely to evolve as the initial convection moves off of the higher terrain. There remains some uncertainty on the eastward extent of destabilization given lingering cloud cover, though clearing is ongoing. Strong flow aloft ahead of the upper trough is supporting robust vertical shear profiles with relatively long hodographs and 50+ kt of effective shear. More than sufficient to support organized rotating updrafts, these storms will likely be capable of large hail and damaging gusts. A brief tornado can also not be ruled out given some low-level veering and potential for terrain enhanced low-level shear. Given the potential for a few supercells capable of hail and damaging winds, a new WW may be needed in the next 1-2 hours. ..Lyons/Halbert/Gleason.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 42870395 42480400 42290421 42250460 42740553 43680688 44030721 45480711 45890652 46080591 46080526 45960471 45570434 45160407 44710385 44360382 43780390 42870395 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 17 22:01:01 UTC 2024.

MD 1304 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Southern/Eastern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172000Z - 172200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are possible across southern WI this afternoon and evening. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed in the upper 80s/low 90s across southern WI/eastern WI, amid dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. These very warm and moist surface conditions are helping support strong buoyancy, despite relatively poor lapse rates across the region. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is around 2000 to 2500 J/kg, with little to no convective inhibition. Low-level convergence along and ahead of a stationary boundary extending from OCQ (about 30 miles north-northeast of GRB) southwestward through LNR in far southwest WI is contributing to convective initiation within this unstable airmass. Vertical shear is modest across the region, with effective bulk shear less than 20 kt. This lack of stronger shear is expected to promote a predominantly multicellular mode, but a few updrafts could still become strong enough to produce severe hail and/or a strong, water-loaded downburst. Overall coverage of severe is currently expected to remain isolated, limiting the need for a watch, but convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 42619033 42979067 43759005 44508922 45008830 44688754 44238745 43648768 42908779 42608825 42548939 42619033 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more