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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more