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WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DTL TO 15 SSW BJI TO 15 WNW INL. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-021-035-057-061-071-111-137-159-181140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CASS CROW WING HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING OTTER TAIL ST. LOUIS WADENA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FAR TO 40 W BJI TO 35 ENE RRT. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-017-021-029-035-057-061-071-077-087-111-137-159- 167-181040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI CARLTON CASS CLEARWATER CROW WING HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN OTTER TAIL ST. LOUIS WADENA WILKIN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW HON TO 55 SE MBG TO 35 W ABR TO 50 SW FAR TO 20 SSE FAR. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC073-077-081-181040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-045-049-089-181040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK MCPHERSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW HON TO 55 SE MBG TO 35 W ABR TO 50 SW FAR TO 20 SSE FAR. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC073-077-081-181040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-045-049-089-181040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK MCPHERSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW HON TO 55 SE MBG TO 35 W ABR TO 50 SW FAR TO 20 SSE FAR. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC073-077-081-181040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-045-049-089-181040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK MCPHERSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW HON TO 55 SE MBG TO 35 W ABR TO 50 SW FAR TO 20 SSE FAR. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC073-077-081-181040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-045-049-089-181040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK MCPHERSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 431 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 180340Z - 181100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central and east-central North Dakota Central and northern South Dakota * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1040 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Increasingly organized thunderstorms are expected to grow in coverage and move northeastward across the watch area over the next several hours. Though north of a warm front and nominally elevated in character, this activity still may penetrate severe gusts to the surface, as well as producing sporadic large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles either side of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Pierre SD to 5 miles north northeast of Jamestown ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW FAR TO 10 SE TVF TO 15 S ROX. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-017-021-027-029-035-057-061-071-077-087-107-111- 119-137-159-167-180940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI CARLTON CASS CLAY CLEARWATER CROW WING HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL POLK ST. LOUIS WADENA WILKIN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE PIR TO 15 NNW PHP TO 35 ESE MBG TO 45 N ABR TO 35 N FAR. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC017-073-077-081-180940- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-045-049-055-065-089-107-117-119-129-180940- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK HAAKON HUGHES MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PHP TO 15 S MBG TO 45 E JMS TO 5 SE GFK TO 15 S HCO. ..LEITMAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-017-021-045-073-077-081-097-180840- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY LAMOURE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT TRAILL SDC013-045-049-055-065-071-075-089-107-117-119-129-180840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON JONES MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1315 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431... FOR NORTHEAST SD...EASTERN ND...AND NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1315 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...northeast SD...eastern ND...and northwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431... Valid 180649Z - 180815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm gusts around 45-60 mph remain possible across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431. DISCUSSION...A semi-organized line of convection will continue to shift east across eastern ND and northeast SD the next few hours. Mostly sub-severe gusts in the 40-50 mph range have be noted in surface observations. However, JMS recently gusted to 60 mph. Expect this general trend to continue across the watch area for another 1-2 hours. Trends are being monitored for possible downstream watch into parts of MN. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 48309770 48369654 48229508 47739412 47029390 46379420 45979518 45229749 44669892 44559981 45020050 45750035 48309770 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs. If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period. Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more