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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains. In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail, localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains. In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail, localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains. In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail, localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains. In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail, localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains. In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail, localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains. In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail, localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains. In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail, localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the Intermountain West eastward across the northern and central Plains. A more concentrated risk -- including potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado -- is expected across the mid Missouri Valley area. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move out of the Intermountain West and into the northern/central Plains today, shunting the central U.S. ridge eastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Farther downstream, an eastern U.S. trough will gradually shift off the East Coast and into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile upstream, an eastern Pacific short-wave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest/northern California through the second half of the period. At the surface, weak/broad low pressure initially over the High Plains is forecast to gradually consolidate as it shifts eastward across the central Plains, in tandem with the advance of the upper trough. As this occurs, a cool front will shift southeastward across the central Plains through the afternoon and evening. Overnight, further consolidation of the surface low is expected as it moves slowly northeastward into southern Minnesota, while the trailing front sharpens, extending from the low southwestward across Kansas and into New Mexico by the end of the period. ...Middle Missouri Valley area... As an ongoing MCS crosses the Mid Missouri Valley area of eastern Nebraska and vicinity early in the period, a resulting/remnant outflow boundary is forecast to persist into the afternoon across the southeastern Nebraska/northwestern Missouri/southwestern Iowa area. As a moist low-level airmass undergoes diurnal heating, moderate destabilization is forecast near and south of this boundary. As low pressure -- and the attendant cold front -- shifts eastward into this area, the low/front and remnant outflow should all provide low-level foci for late afternoon storm initiation. With enhanced southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing mid-level trough beneath moderate (30 to 40 kt) mid-level westerlies, resulting shear suggests that initial storms will likely be supercells, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. With time, clustering/upscale growth is expected, with guidance suggesting that an at least loosely organized band of storms should move eastward through the evening across, northwestern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. Risk for locally damaging wind gusts and some hail will likely accompany this activity, before severe risk diminishes gradually overnight. ...Wyoming and vicinity eastward across the northern and central Plains... As the upper trough -- comprised of several vorticity maxima embedded in the broader cyclonic flow field -- shifts across the Rockies toward/into the Plains, daytime heating beneath cooler air at mid levels will support modest destabilization across a broad area. Ascent -- focused near favored higher terrain areas and near various weak surface boundaries -- will contribute to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies will contribute to shear sufficient for a few stronger storms -- and attendant risks for hail and locally strong/severe wind gusts into the evening hours. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the Intermountain West eastward across the northern and central Plains. A more concentrated risk -- including potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado -- is expected across the mid Missouri Valley area. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move out of the Intermountain West and into the northern/central Plains today, shunting the central U.S. ridge eastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Farther downstream, an eastern U.S. trough will gradually shift off the East Coast and into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile upstream, an eastern Pacific short-wave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest/northern California through the second half of the period. At the surface, weak/broad low pressure initially over the High Plains is forecast to gradually consolidate as it shifts eastward across the central Plains, in tandem with the advance of the upper trough. As this occurs, a cool front will shift southeastward across the central Plains through the afternoon and evening. Overnight, further consolidation of the surface low is expected as it moves slowly northeastward into southern Minnesota, while the trailing front sharpens, extending from the low southwestward across Kansas and into New Mexico by the end of the period. ...Middle Missouri Valley area... As an ongoing MCS crosses the Mid Missouri Valley area of eastern Nebraska and vicinity early in the period, a resulting/remnant outflow boundary is forecast to persist into the afternoon across the southeastern Nebraska/northwestern Missouri/southwestern Iowa area. As a moist low-level airmass undergoes diurnal heating, moderate destabilization is forecast near and south of this boundary. As low pressure -- and the attendant cold front -- shifts eastward into this area, the low/front and remnant outflow should all provide low-level foci for late afternoon storm initiation. With enhanced southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing mid-level trough beneath moderate (30 to 40 kt) mid-level westerlies, resulting shear suggests that initial storms will likely be supercells, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. With time, clustering/upscale growth is expected, with guidance suggesting that an at least loosely organized band of storms should move eastward through the evening across, northwestern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. Risk for locally damaging wind gusts and some hail will likely accompany this activity, before severe risk diminishes gradually overnight. ...Wyoming and vicinity eastward across the northern and central Plains... As the upper trough -- comprised of several vorticity maxima embedded in the broader cyclonic flow field -- shifts across the Rockies toward/into the Plains, daytime heating beneath cooler air at mid levels will support modest destabilization across a broad area. Ascent -- focused near favored higher terrain areas and near various weak surface boundaries -- will contribute to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies will contribute to shear sufficient for a few stronger storms -- and attendant risks for hail and locally strong/severe wind gusts into the evening hours. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the Intermountain West eastward across the northern and central Plains. A more concentrated risk -- including potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado -- is expected across the mid Missouri Valley area. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move out of the Intermountain West and into the northern/central Plains today, shunting the central U.S. ridge eastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Farther downstream, an eastern U.S. trough will gradually shift off the East Coast and into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile upstream, an eastern Pacific short-wave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest/northern California through the second half of the period. At the surface, weak/broad low pressure initially over the High Plains is forecast to gradually consolidate as it shifts eastward across the central Plains, in tandem with the advance of the upper trough. As this occurs, a cool front will shift southeastward across the central Plains through the afternoon and evening. Overnight, further consolidation of the surface low is expected as it moves slowly northeastward into southern Minnesota, while the trailing front sharpens, extending from the low southwestward across Kansas and into New Mexico by the end of the period. ...Middle Missouri Valley area... As an ongoing MCS crosses the Mid Missouri Valley area of eastern Nebraska and vicinity early in the period, a resulting/remnant outflow boundary is forecast to persist into the afternoon across the southeastern Nebraska/northwestern Missouri/southwestern Iowa area. As a moist low-level airmass undergoes diurnal heating, moderate destabilization is forecast near and south of this boundary. As low pressure -- and the attendant cold front -- shifts eastward into this area, the low/front and remnant outflow should all provide low-level foci for late afternoon storm initiation. With enhanced southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing mid-level trough beneath moderate (30 to 40 kt) mid-level westerlies, resulting shear suggests that initial storms will likely be supercells, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. With time, clustering/upscale growth is expected, with guidance suggesting that an at least loosely organized band of storms should move eastward through the evening across, northwestern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. Risk for locally damaging wind gusts and some hail will likely accompany this activity, before severe risk diminishes gradually overnight. ...Wyoming and vicinity eastward across the northern and central Plains... As the upper trough -- comprised of several vorticity maxima embedded in the broader cyclonic flow field -- shifts across the Rockies toward/into the Plains, daytime heating beneath cooler air at mid levels will support modest destabilization across a broad area. Ascent -- focused near favored higher terrain areas and near various weak surface boundaries -- will contribute to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies will contribute to shear sufficient for a few stronger storms -- and attendant risks for hail and locally strong/severe wind gusts into the evening hours. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the Intermountain West eastward across the northern and central Plains. A more concentrated risk -- including potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado -- is expected across the mid Missouri Valley area. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move out of the Intermountain West and into the northern/central Plains today, shunting the central U.S. ridge eastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Farther downstream, an eastern U.S. trough will gradually shift off the East Coast and into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile upstream, an eastern Pacific short-wave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest/northern California through the second half of the period. At the surface, weak/broad low pressure initially over the High Plains is forecast to gradually consolidate as it shifts eastward across the central Plains, in tandem with the advance of the upper trough. As this occurs, a cool front will shift southeastward across the central Plains through the afternoon and evening. Overnight, further consolidation of the surface low is expected as it moves slowly northeastward into southern Minnesota, while the trailing front sharpens, extending from the low southwestward across Kansas and into New Mexico by the end of the period. ...Middle Missouri Valley area... As an ongoing MCS crosses the Mid Missouri Valley area of eastern Nebraska and vicinity early in the period, a resulting/remnant outflow boundary is forecast to persist into the afternoon across the southeastern Nebraska/northwestern Missouri/southwestern Iowa area. As a moist low-level airmass undergoes diurnal heating, moderate destabilization is forecast near and south of this boundary. As low pressure -- and the attendant cold front -- shifts eastward into this area, the low/front and remnant outflow should all provide low-level foci for late afternoon storm initiation. With enhanced southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing mid-level trough beneath moderate (30 to 40 kt) mid-level westerlies, resulting shear suggests that initial storms will likely be supercells, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. With time, clustering/upscale growth is expected, with guidance suggesting that an at least loosely organized band of storms should move eastward through the evening across, northwestern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. Risk for locally damaging wind gusts and some hail will likely accompany this activity, before severe risk diminishes gradually overnight. ...Wyoming and vicinity eastward across the northern and central Plains... As the upper trough -- comprised of several vorticity maxima embedded in the broader cyclonic flow field -- shifts across the Rockies toward/into the Plains, daytime heating beneath cooler air at mid levels will support modest destabilization across a broad area. Ascent -- focused near favored higher terrain areas and near various weak surface boundaries -- will contribute to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies will contribute to shear sufficient for a few stronger storms -- and attendant risks for hail and locally strong/severe wind gusts into the evening hours. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the Intermountain West eastward across the northern and central Plains. A more concentrated risk -- including potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado -- is expected across the mid Missouri Valley area. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move out of the Intermountain West and into the northern/central Plains today, shunting the central U.S. ridge eastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Farther downstream, an eastern U.S. trough will gradually shift off the East Coast and into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile upstream, an eastern Pacific short-wave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest/northern California through the second half of the period. At the surface, weak/broad low pressure initially over the High Plains is forecast to gradually consolidate as it shifts eastward across the central Plains, in tandem with the advance of the upper trough. As this occurs, a cool front will shift southeastward across the central Plains through the afternoon and evening. Overnight, further consolidation of the surface low is expected as it moves slowly northeastward into southern Minnesota, while the trailing front sharpens, extending from the low southwestward across Kansas and into New Mexico by the end of the period. ...Middle Missouri Valley area... As an ongoing MCS crosses the Mid Missouri Valley area of eastern Nebraska and vicinity early in the period, a resulting/remnant outflow boundary is forecast to persist into the afternoon across the southeastern Nebraska/northwestern Missouri/southwestern Iowa area. As a moist low-level airmass undergoes diurnal heating, moderate destabilization is forecast near and south of this boundary. As low pressure -- and the attendant cold front -- shifts eastward into this area, the low/front and remnant outflow should all provide low-level foci for late afternoon storm initiation. With enhanced southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing mid-level trough beneath moderate (30 to 40 kt) mid-level westerlies, resulting shear suggests that initial storms will likely be supercells, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. With time, clustering/upscale growth is expected, with guidance suggesting that an at least loosely organized band of storms should move eastward through the evening across, northwestern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. Risk for locally damaging wind gusts and some hail will likely accompany this activity, before severe risk diminishes gradually overnight. ...Wyoming and vicinity eastward across the northern and central Plains... As the upper trough -- comprised of several vorticity maxima embedded in the broader cyclonic flow field -- shifts across the Rockies toward/into the Plains, daytime heating beneath cooler air at mid levels will support modest destabilization across a broad area. Ascent -- focused near favored higher terrain areas and near various weak surface boundaries -- will contribute to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies will contribute to shear sufficient for a few stronger storms -- and attendant risks for hail and locally strong/severe wind gusts into the evening hours. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the Intermountain West eastward across the northern and central Plains. A more concentrated risk -- including potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado -- is expected across the mid Missouri Valley area. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move out of the Intermountain West and into the northern/central Plains today, shunting the central U.S. ridge eastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Farther downstream, an eastern U.S. trough will gradually shift off the East Coast and into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile upstream, an eastern Pacific short-wave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest/northern California through the second half of the period. At the surface, weak/broad low pressure initially over the High Plains is forecast to gradually consolidate as it shifts eastward across the central Plains, in tandem with the advance of the upper trough. As this occurs, a cool front will shift southeastward across the central Plains through the afternoon and evening. Overnight, further consolidation of the surface low is expected as it moves slowly northeastward into southern Minnesota, while the trailing front sharpens, extending from the low southwestward across Kansas and into New Mexico by the end of the period. ...Middle Missouri Valley area... As an ongoing MCS crosses the Mid Missouri Valley area of eastern Nebraska and vicinity early in the period, a resulting/remnant outflow boundary is forecast to persist into the afternoon across the southeastern Nebraska/northwestern Missouri/southwestern Iowa area. As a moist low-level airmass undergoes diurnal heating, moderate destabilization is forecast near and south of this boundary. As low pressure -- and the attendant cold front -- shifts eastward into this area, the low/front and remnant outflow should all provide low-level foci for late afternoon storm initiation. With enhanced southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing mid-level trough beneath moderate (30 to 40 kt) mid-level westerlies, resulting shear suggests that initial storms will likely be supercells, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. With time, clustering/upscale growth is expected, with guidance suggesting that an at least loosely organized band of storms should move eastward through the evening across, northwestern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. Risk for locally damaging wind gusts and some hail will likely accompany this activity, before severe risk diminishes gradually overnight. ...Wyoming and vicinity eastward across the northern and central Plains... As the upper trough -- comprised of several vorticity maxima embedded in the broader cyclonic flow field -- shifts across the Rockies toward/into the Plains, daytime heating beneath cooler air at mid levels will support modest destabilization across a broad area. Ascent -- focused near favored higher terrain areas and near various weak surface boundaries -- will contribute to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies will contribute to shear sufficient for a few stronger storms -- and attendant risks for hail and locally strong/severe wind gusts into the evening hours. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the Intermountain West eastward across the northern and central Plains. A more concentrated risk -- including potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado -- is expected across the mid Missouri Valley area. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move out of the Intermountain West and into the northern/central Plains today, shunting the central U.S. ridge eastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Farther downstream, an eastern U.S. trough will gradually shift off the East Coast and into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile upstream, an eastern Pacific short-wave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest/northern California through the second half of the period. At the surface, weak/broad low pressure initially over the High Plains is forecast to gradually consolidate as it shifts eastward across the central Plains, in tandem with the advance of the upper trough. As this occurs, a cool front will shift southeastward across the central Plains through the afternoon and evening. Overnight, further consolidation of the surface low is expected as it moves slowly northeastward into southern Minnesota, while the trailing front sharpens, extending from the low southwestward across Kansas and into New Mexico by the end of the period. ...Middle Missouri Valley area... As an ongoing MCS crosses the Mid Missouri Valley area of eastern Nebraska and vicinity early in the period, a resulting/remnant outflow boundary is forecast to persist into the afternoon across the southeastern Nebraska/northwestern Missouri/southwestern Iowa area. As a moist low-level airmass undergoes diurnal heating, moderate destabilization is forecast near and south of this boundary. As low pressure -- and the attendant cold front -- shifts eastward into this area, the low/front and remnant outflow should all provide low-level foci for late afternoon storm initiation. With enhanced southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing mid-level trough beneath moderate (30 to 40 kt) mid-level westerlies, resulting shear suggests that initial storms will likely be supercells, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. With time, clustering/upscale growth is expected, with guidance suggesting that an at least loosely organized band of storms should move eastward through the evening across, northwestern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. Risk for locally damaging wind gusts and some hail will likely accompany this activity, before severe risk diminishes gradually overnight. ...Wyoming and vicinity eastward across the northern and central Plains... As the upper trough -- comprised of several vorticity maxima embedded in the broader cyclonic flow field -- shifts across the Rockies toward/into the Plains, daytime heating beneath cooler air at mid levels will support modest destabilization across a broad area. Ascent -- focused near favored higher terrain areas and near various weak surface boundaries -- will contribute to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies will contribute to shear sufficient for a few stronger storms -- and attendant risks for hail and locally strong/severe wind gusts into the evening hours. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the Intermountain West eastward across the northern and central Plains. A more concentrated risk -- including potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado -- is expected across the mid Missouri Valley area. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough is forecast to move out of the Intermountain West and into the northern/central Plains today, shunting the central U.S. ridge eastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Farther downstream, an eastern U.S. trough will gradually shift off the East Coast and into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile upstream, an eastern Pacific short-wave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest/northern California through the second half of the period. At the surface, weak/broad low pressure initially over the High Plains is forecast to gradually consolidate as it shifts eastward across the central Plains, in tandem with the advance of the upper trough. As this occurs, a cool front will shift southeastward across the central Plains through the afternoon and evening. Overnight, further consolidation of the surface low is expected as it moves slowly northeastward into southern Minnesota, while the trailing front sharpens, extending from the low southwestward across Kansas and into New Mexico by the end of the period. ...Middle Missouri Valley area... As an ongoing MCS crosses the Mid Missouri Valley area of eastern Nebraska and vicinity early in the period, a resulting/remnant outflow boundary is forecast to persist into the afternoon across the southeastern Nebraska/northwestern Missouri/southwestern Iowa area. As a moist low-level airmass undergoes diurnal heating, moderate destabilization is forecast near and south of this boundary. As low pressure -- and the attendant cold front -- shifts eastward into this area, the low/front and remnant outflow should all provide low-level foci for late afternoon storm initiation. With enhanced southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing mid-level trough beneath moderate (30 to 40 kt) mid-level westerlies, resulting shear suggests that initial storms will likely be supercells, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. With time, clustering/upscale growth is expected, with guidance suggesting that an at least loosely organized band of storms should move eastward through the evening across, northwestern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. Risk for locally damaging wind gusts and some hail will likely accompany this activity, before severe risk diminishes gradually overnight. ...Wyoming and vicinity eastward across the northern and central Plains... As the upper trough -- comprised of several vorticity maxima embedded in the broader cyclonic flow field -- shifts across the Rockies toward/into the Plains, daytime heating beneath cooler air at mid levels will support modest destabilization across a broad area. Ascent -- focused near favored higher terrain areas and near various weak surface boundaries -- will contribute to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies will contribute to shear sufficient for a few stronger storms -- and attendant risks for hail and locally strong/severe wind gusts into the evening hours. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/14/2024 Read more

WW 0621 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MCK TO 30 SW EAR TO 5 SSW BUB. ..SMITH..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC001-019-061-065-077-079-083-093-099-137-163-175-181-140630- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN FURNAS GREELEY HALL HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY PHELPS SHERMAN VALLEY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0621 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MCK TO 30 SW EAR TO 5 SSW BUB. ..SMITH..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC001-019-061-065-077-079-083-093-099-137-163-175-181-140630- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN FURNAS GREELEY HALL HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY PHELPS SHERMAN VALLEY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0621 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MCK TO 30 SW EAR TO 5 SSW BUB. ..SMITH..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 621 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC001-019-061-065-077-079-083-093-099-137-163-175-181-140630- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN FURNAS GREELEY HALL HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY PHELPS SHERMAN VALLEY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 621 SEVERE TSTM NE 140430Z - 141200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and south-central Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1130 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of occasionally severe thunderstorms -- which produced a 60-kt at MCK during the last half hour -- will maintain severe potential into the watch area before weakening later tonight. Isolated large hail also may occur, either in the main MCS or in precursory convection. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Kearney NE to 30 miles northeast of Broken Bow NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 620... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Edwards Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 140534
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend well offshore of
southern Mexico. Some slow development is possible by early next
week as the low moves west-northwestward, remaining offshore of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
far southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some slow development is then
possible as the low moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly