Aggregator

Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081755 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...USE CAUTION AFTER THE STORM AS DEADLY HAZARDS REMAIN INCLUDING DOWNED POWERLINES AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM IMPROPER GENERATOR USE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 95.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * North of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast from north of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located by NWS radar data near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mostly southeast from the center. A National Ocean Service station near the entrance to Galveston Bay (GNJT2) recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h), and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). Huntsville Municipal Airport (KUTS) in Texas measured a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h), and Beaumont/Port Arthur Regional Airport (KBPT) recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches) based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Upper Texas Coast and eastern Texas today into tonight. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri tonight into Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the northern and western Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

MD 1558 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 514... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Texas and southwestern/west central Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 514... Valid 081619Z - 081815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 514 continues. SUMMARY...Within and ahead of outer bands of Beryl, the risk for supercells with potential to produce tornadoes may undergo a substantive increase through 1-3 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...The low-level circulation center of Beryl is progressing slowly northward, near/west through north of the Houston Intercontinental vicinity. VWP data from KGHX indicates that low-level wind fields have veered to a south-southwesterly component with hodographs becoming more linear, and downward mixing of drier air is lowering surface dew points into the lower 70s F across much of the Greater Houston area. On the eastern to northeastern periphery of Beryl, surface dew points continue to rise through the upper 70s F, in the presence of enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs closer to the Sabine River and into southwestern and west central Louisiana. Coupled with further boundary-layer destabilization, aided by daytime heating beneath the eastern periphery of the mid-level warm core, the potential for tornadoes may begin to substantively increase through 18-20Z. This may include with evolving supercells within the north-northeastward pivoting outer bands, and perhaps discretely to their north and east. ..Kerr.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31769433 31849367 30649208 29619213 29799322 29949397 30699407 31199455 31769433 Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BPT TO 30 SE LFK TO 40 NW LFK. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-081840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-081840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081705
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Beryl, located inland over eastern Texas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081704
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 000 WTNT62 KNHC 081657 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL PERSISTING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1200 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Montgomery County Airport in Conroe (KCXO) recently reported a wind gust to 81 mph (130 km/h). This is the last hourly position estimate for Beryl. The next information will be the regularly scheduled 1 PM CDT Intermediate advisory. SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 95.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake

...BERYL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS AND THE RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 32.2, -94.8 with movement NNE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will remain across western US on Monday. This pattern will keep winds generally light across much of the desert southwest into the Great Basin, where the driest conditions will overlap with most receptive fuels. Afternoon relative humidity will drop as low as 5-15 percent, with above normal temperatures and localized northwest breezes. Some transient localized Elevated conditions will be possible, but winds will largely remain below thresholds. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more