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Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 15:36:07 GMT

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WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0514 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 928 WTNT42 KNHC 081451 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Despite being overland for about 6 hours, NWS radar and surface data indicate that the system has only slightly weakened, with a fairly well-defined eye present. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, as a compromise of Doppler wind velocities and surface observations. While Beryl is no longer a hurricane, there are still many life-threatening hazards associated with the storm, and these are detailed in the Key Messages below. Beryl should remain a potent wind gust producer for the next few hours with recent observations in the eastern eyewall reporting wind gusts above 70 kt. As more of the circulation moves inland later today, Beryl is forecast to steadily weaken and become a tropical depression tonight or overnight. No change to the intensity forecast has been made. The storm is moving north-northeastward, now a little faster at 11 kt. Beryl should turn northeastward and accelerate across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley during the next couple of days until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast, a bit to the east. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation will continue through this afternoon along the coast of Texas from Port O’Connor to Sabine Pass, including the eastern portion of Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. 2. Damaging wind gusts near the core of Beryl will continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area, including the Houston metro area, for the next several hours. 3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected today into tonight across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Tuesday across portions of the northern and western Gulf coasts. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 29.8N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 33.9N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 36.7N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 10/1200Z 39.7N 86.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 11/0000Z 42.2N 82.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/1200Z 44.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 14:52:00 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 14:51:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2024 14:51:34 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 081450 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) KOUNTZE TX 34 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Port O'Connor to Mesquite Bay, TX The Hurricane Warning from Mesquite Bay northward to Port O'Connor has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning from north of Port O'Connor to Port Bolivar has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port O'Connor to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast from north of Port O'Connor northward to Sabine Pass A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located by NWS radar data near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 95.7 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Houston Hobby Airport recently reported a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h), and Bush Intercontinental Airport recently reported a wind gust of 83 mph (134 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches) based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions with damaging wind gusts will continue within the tropical storm warning area for the next several hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Freeport, TX to High Island, TX...4-6 ft Galveston Bay...4-6 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft Matagorda, TX to Freeport, TX...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Upper Texas Coast and eastern Texas today into tonight. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri tonight into Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the northern and western Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 081449 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 95.7W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 95.7W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 95.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.9N 93.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 36.7N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.7N 86.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 42.2N 82.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 95.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 900 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 000 WTNT62 KNHC 081359 TCUAT2 Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 900 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE HOUSTON AREA... ...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Hobby Airport (KHOU) recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 84 mph (135 km/h). A National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Morgans Point recently measured a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph (124 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 29.8, -95.7 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

MD 1557 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 513... FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1557 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 513... Valid 081253Z - 081500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 513 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat with Beryl continues today. DISCUSSION...Currently the primary tornado threat is associated with a few bands of supercells across southeast Texas. Some guidance indicates more cellular convection across southwest Louisiana and eastern Texas by later this morning which could pose some tornado threat given the wind profile shown by the LCH VWP. Therefore, when tornado watch 513 expires at 15Z, a new watch may be needed which may also need to be expanded farther inland to cover this threat as it develops northward through the day. ..Bentley/Smith.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 28569511 28989524 29639549 30079568 30689532 31419468 31629417 31739365 31539322 31309293 30399288 29929298 29689310 29529356 29279430 28569511 Read more

Issued at 800 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 000 WTNT62 KNHC 081300 TCUAT2 Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS... ...800 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... A mesonet station (FRPT2) in Freeport recently reported a wind gust of 94 mph (151 km/h). A National Ocean Service (NOS) station (GNJT2) at the entrance to Galveston Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 73 mph (117 km/h) and a gust of 82 mph (131 km/h). A USGS gauge at Galveston Railroad Bridge recently reported an inundation of 3.6 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 95.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS... ...800 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 8:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 29.4, -95.8 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more