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WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BPT TO 35 WSW POE TO 50 W IER TO 15 SSE GGG TO 20 ENE TYR. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-082140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-082140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BPT TO 35 WSW POE TO 50 W IER TO 15 SSE GGG TO 20 ENE TYR. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-082140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-082140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BPT TO 35 WSW POE TO 50 W IER TO 15 SSE GGG TO 20 ENE TYR. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-082140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-082140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more

WW 514 TORNADO AR LA TX CW 081500Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 514 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Western and Central Louisiana East and Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1000 AM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Gradual daytime destabilization and a strong atmospheric winds associated with the northward movement of Tropical cyclone Beryl will be favorable for low-topped supercells capable of tornadoes through this afternoon and early evening. This risk will mostly be focused across east/southeast Texas and far western Louisiana this morning, but it will expand north-northeastward across additional parts of east/northeast Texas, western/northern Louisiana, and eventually southern Arkansas through late afternoon and evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles southwest of Port Arthur TX to 45 miles west northwest of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 16040. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1559 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1559 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...North-central New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081833Z - 082030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward. A watch is not likely. DISCUSSION...Surface dewpoints have help in the upper 40s to low 50s F in north-central New Mexico. With very modest mid-level ascent along the base of the departing upper-level trough, a few storms have deepened early this afternoon within the terrain. Effective shear of 30-35 kts will promote some storm organization. Much of the shear is concentrated in the lowest 6 km with fairly minimal shear above that level. Despite steep mid-level lapse rates, hail size should be tempered by this less favorable wind profile. Steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated strong/severe wind gusts as well. Cloud cover and drier air moving into the northeastern plains will likely limit how far southeast this activity will progress this afternoon. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT... LAT...LON 36490707 37090644 37160462 36280416 35270446 34780531 34750575 34950626 35710695 36490707 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas. ...20Z Update... ...East/Northeast TX into Northwest/Central LA and Southern/Eastern AR... Several low-topped supercells have developed with a convective band arcing from Rusk and Gregg Counties in northeast TX to Natchitoches and Winn Parishes in central LA. This intensification appears to be associated with greater low-level convergence and increased buoyancy (particularly in the 0-3 km layer) amid already strong low to mid-level flow. Recently issued MCD #1560 discusses the short-term trends within this area as well. Beryl is forecast to continue northeastward, potentially taking this area of greater storm production into southern/eastern AR. The 5% tornado probabilities were expanded northeastward to account for some increased tornado potential as this area of Beryl moves into more of northeast AR later this evening and tonight. ...Elsewhere... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1559, isolated and marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward across north-central NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms are still anticipated across southwest TX this afternoon and evening, with some large hail and damaging gusts possible. Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts also remain possible this afternoon and evening from northern WI into northern Lower MI. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas. ...20Z Update... ...East/Northeast TX into Northwest/Central LA and Southern/Eastern AR... Several low-topped supercells have developed with a convective band arcing from Rusk and Gregg Counties in northeast TX to Natchitoches and Winn Parishes in central LA. This intensification appears to be associated with greater low-level convergence and increased buoyancy (particularly in the 0-3 km layer) amid already strong low to mid-level flow. Recently issued MCD #1560 discusses the short-term trends within this area as well. Beryl is forecast to continue northeastward, potentially taking this area of greater storm production into southern/eastern AR. The 5% tornado probabilities were expanded northeastward to account for some increased tornado potential as this area of Beryl moves into more of northeast AR later this evening and tonight. ...Elsewhere... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1559, isolated and marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward across north-central NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms are still anticipated across southwest TX this afternoon and evening, with some large hail and damaging gusts possible. Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts also remain possible this afternoon and evening from northern WI into northern Lower MI. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas. ...20Z Update... ...East/Northeast TX into Northwest/Central LA and Southern/Eastern AR... Several low-topped supercells have developed with a convective band arcing from Rusk and Gregg Counties in northeast TX to Natchitoches and Winn Parishes in central LA. This intensification appears to be associated with greater low-level convergence and increased buoyancy (particularly in the 0-3 km layer) amid already strong low to mid-level flow. Recently issued MCD #1560 discusses the short-term trends within this area as well. Beryl is forecast to continue northeastward, potentially taking this area of greater storm production into southern/eastern AR. The 5% tornado probabilities were expanded northeastward to account for some increased tornado potential as this area of Beryl moves into more of northeast AR later this evening and tonight. ...Elsewhere... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1559, isolated and marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward across north-central NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms are still anticipated across southwest TX this afternoon and evening, with some large hail and damaging gusts possible. Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts also remain possible this afternoon and evening from northern WI into northern Lower MI. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas. ...20Z Update... ...East/Northeast TX into Northwest/Central LA and Southern/Eastern AR... Several low-topped supercells have developed with a convective band arcing from Rusk and Gregg Counties in northeast TX to Natchitoches and Winn Parishes in central LA. This intensification appears to be associated with greater low-level convergence and increased buoyancy (particularly in the 0-3 km layer) amid already strong low to mid-level flow. Recently issued MCD #1560 discusses the short-term trends within this area as well. Beryl is forecast to continue northeastward, potentially taking this area of greater storm production into southern/eastern AR. The 5% tornado probabilities were expanded northeastward to account for some increased tornado potential as this area of Beryl moves into more of northeast AR later this evening and tonight. ...Elsewhere... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1559, isolated and marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward across north-central NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms are still anticipated across southwest TX this afternoon and evening, with some large hail and damaging gusts possible. Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts also remain possible this afternoon and evening from northern WI into northern Lower MI. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas. ...20Z Update... ...East/Northeast TX into Northwest/Central LA and Southern/Eastern AR... Several low-topped supercells have developed with a convective band arcing from Rusk and Gregg Counties in northeast TX to Natchitoches and Winn Parishes in central LA. This intensification appears to be associated with greater low-level convergence and increased buoyancy (particularly in the 0-3 km layer) amid already strong low to mid-level flow. Recently issued MCD #1560 discusses the short-term trends within this area as well. Beryl is forecast to continue northeastward, potentially taking this area of greater storm production into southern/eastern AR. The 5% tornado probabilities were expanded northeastward to account for some increased tornado potential as this area of Beryl moves into more of northeast AR later this evening and tonight. ...Elsewhere... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1559, isolated and marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward across north-central NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms are still anticipated across southwest TX this afternoon and evening, with some large hail and damaging gusts possible. Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts also remain possible this afternoon and evening from northern WI into northern Lower MI. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas. ...20Z Update... ...East/Northeast TX into Northwest/Central LA and Southern/Eastern AR... Several low-topped supercells have developed with a convective band arcing from Rusk and Gregg Counties in northeast TX to Natchitoches and Winn Parishes in central LA. This intensification appears to be associated with greater low-level convergence and increased buoyancy (particularly in the 0-3 km layer) amid already strong low to mid-level flow. Recently issued MCD #1560 discusses the short-term trends within this area as well. Beryl is forecast to continue northeastward, potentially taking this area of greater storm production into southern/eastern AR. The 5% tornado probabilities were expanded northeastward to account for some increased tornado potential as this area of Beryl moves into more of northeast AR later this evening and tonight. ...Elsewhere... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1559, isolated and marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward across north-central NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms are still anticipated across southwest TX this afternoon and evening, with some large hail and damaging gusts possible. Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts also remain possible this afternoon and evening from northern WI into northern Lower MI. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas. ...20Z Update... ...East/Northeast TX into Northwest/Central LA and Southern/Eastern AR... Several low-topped supercells have developed with a convective band arcing from Rusk and Gregg Counties in northeast TX to Natchitoches and Winn Parishes in central LA. This intensification appears to be associated with greater low-level convergence and increased buoyancy (particularly in the 0-3 km layer) amid already strong low to mid-level flow. Recently issued MCD #1560 discusses the short-term trends within this area as well. Beryl is forecast to continue northeastward, potentially taking this area of greater storm production into southern/eastern AR. The 5% tornado probabilities were expanded northeastward to account for some increased tornado potential as this area of Beryl moves into more of northeast AR later this evening and tonight. ...Elsewhere... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1559, isolated and marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward across north-central NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms are still anticipated across southwest TX this afternoon and evening, with some large hail and damaging gusts possible. Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts also remain possible this afternoon and evening from northern WI into northern Lower MI. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas. ...20Z Update... ...East/Northeast TX into Northwest/Central LA and Southern/Eastern AR... Several low-topped supercells have developed with a convective band arcing from Rusk and Gregg Counties in northeast TX to Natchitoches and Winn Parishes in central LA. This intensification appears to be associated with greater low-level convergence and increased buoyancy (particularly in the 0-3 km layer) amid already strong low to mid-level flow. Recently issued MCD #1560 discusses the short-term trends within this area as well. Beryl is forecast to continue northeastward, potentially taking this area of greater storm production into southern/eastern AR. The 5% tornado probabilities were expanded northeastward to account for some increased tornado potential as this area of Beryl moves into more of northeast AR later this evening and tonight. ...Elsewhere... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1559, isolated and marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward across north-central NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms are still anticipated across southwest TX this afternoon and evening, with some large hail and damaging gusts possible. Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts also remain possible this afternoon and evening from northern WI into northern Lower MI. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more