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The Blairsville Municipal Authority issued a voluntary water conservation notice on July 22, asking customers to curb non-essential water use. Indiana Gazette (Pa.), Aug 4, 2024

Unity and Derry townships issued burn bans, which will remain in effect until further notice. Recreational fires and open burning were not allowed. KDKA (Pittsburgh, Pa.), July 31, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a series of embedded disturbances rotating through a larger-scale trough centered over the northern Great Plains. A notable shortwave trough is located near the WY/NE/SD vicinity and this feature will move east reaching the Upper Great Lakes by Friday morning. A lead convectively augmented disturbance is moving east across the mid MS Valley this morning, and it will move east into the southern Great Lakes and weaken during the day. Broken bands of showers/thunderstorms associated with this lead impulse will progress east this morning and move into a less unstable airmass across the Wabash Valley. Some rejuvenation of storms is possible later today on the southern portion of the trailing outflow near the MS-OH River confluence westward into the Ozarks. Appreciable uncertainty exists at this time on the intensity/coverage of storms in the aforementioned corridor. Nonetheless, heating of a moist airmass will potentially yield an environment favorable for at least isolated to widely scattered storms capable of a wind/hail threat. In wake of the early day cloud debris and overnight storm activity, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will probably develop by mid-late afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southern IA. Thunderstorms may focus along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Some guidance (i.e., 00Z MPAS and recent HRRR runs) indicates lower storm coverage until later this evening across the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley portion of the Slight Risk. Regardless, deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and organized clusters and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will potentially result in severe gusts before this activity diminishes by mid-late evening. ...New England... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Rockies... A mid- to upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will gradually move northeast impinging on the northern Rockies by afternoon. The favorable timing of large-scale ascent and diurnal destabilization will yield scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing from the Upper Snake Valley north-northwestward into north-central ID and western MT by early evening. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and potentially favorable for localized severe gusts with the stronger thunderstorm cores and outflow-dominant clusters. ..Smith.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a series of embedded disturbances rotating through a larger-scale trough centered over the northern Great Plains. A notable shortwave trough is located near the WY/NE/SD vicinity and this feature will move east reaching the Upper Great Lakes by Friday morning. A lead convectively augmented disturbance is moving east across the mid MS Valley this morning, and it will move east into the southern Great Lakes and weaken during the day. Broken bands of showers/thunderstorms associated with this lead impulse will progress east this morning and move into a less unstable airmass across the Wabash Valley. Some rejuvenation of storms is possible later today on the southern portion of the trailing outflow near the MS-OH River confluence westward into the Ozarks. Appreciable uncertainty exists at this time on the intensity/coverage of storms in the aforementioned corridor. Nonetheless, heating of a moist airmass will potentially yield an environment favorable for at least isolated to widely scattered storms capable of a wind/hail threat. In wake of the early day cloud debris and overnight storm activity, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will probably develop by mid-late afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southern IA. Thunderstorms may focus along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Some guidance (i.e., 00Z MPAS and recent HRRR runs) indicates lower storm coverage until later this evening across the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley portion of the Slight Risk. Regardless, deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and organized clusters and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will potentially result in severe gusts before this activity diminishes by mid-late evening. ...New England... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Rockies... A mid- to upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will gradually move northeast impinging on the northern Rockies by afternoon. The favorable timing of large-scale ascent and diurnal destabilization will yield scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing from the Upper Snake Valley north-northwestward into north-central ID and western MT by early evening. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and potentially favorable for localized severe gusts with the stronger thunderstorm cores and outflow-dominant clusters. ..Smith.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a series of embedded disturbances rotating through a larger-scale trough centered over the northern Great Plains. A notable shortwave trough is located near the WY/NE/SD vicinity and this feature will move east reaching the Upper Great Lakes by Friday morning. A lead convectively augmented disturbance is moving east across the mid MS Valley this morning, and it will move east into the southern Great Lakes and weaken during the day. Broken bands of showers/thunderstorms associated with this lead impulse will progress east this morning and move into a less unstable airmass across the Wabash Valley. Some rejuvenation of storms is possible later today on the southern portion of the trailing outflow near the MS-OH River confluence westward into the Ozarks. Appreciable uncertainty exists at this time on the intensity/coverage of storms in the aforementioned corridor. Nonetheless, heating of a moist airmass will potentially yield an environment favorable for at least isolated to widely scattered storms capable of a wind/hail threat. In wake of the early day cloud debris and overnight storm activity, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will probably develop by mid-late afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southern IA. Thunderstorms may focus along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Some guidance (i.e., 00Z MPAS and recent HRRR runs) indicates lower storm coverage until later this evening across the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley portion of the Slight Risk. Regardless, deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and organized clusters and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will potentially result in severe gusts before this activity diminishes by mid-late evening. ...New England... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Rockies... A mid- to upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will gradually move northeast impinging on the northern Rockies by afternoon. The favorable timing of large-scale ascent and diurnal destabilization will yield scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing from the Upper Snake Valley north-northwestward into north-central ID and western MT by early evening. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and potentially favorable for localized severe gusts with the stronger thunderstorm cores and outflow-dominant clusters. ..Smith.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a series of embedded disturbances rotating through a larger-scale trough centered over the northern Great Plains. A notable shortwave trough is located near the WY/NE/SD vicinity and this feature will move east reaching the Upper Great Lakes by Friday morning. A lead convectively augmented disturbance is moving east across the mid MS Valley this morning, and it will move east into the southern Great Lakes and weaken during the day. Broken bands of showers/thunderstorms associated with this lead impulse will progress east this morning and move into a less unstable airmass across the Wabash Valley. Some rejuvenation of storms is possible later today on the southern portion of the trailing outflow near the MS-OH River confluence westward into the Ozarks. Appreciable uncertainty exists at this time on the intensity/coverage of storms in the aforementioned corridor. Nonetheless, heating of a moist airmass will potentially yield an environment favorable for at least isolated to widely scattered storms capable of a wind/hail threat. In wake of the early day cloud debris and overnight storm activity, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will probably develop by mid-late afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southern IA. Thunderstorms may focus along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Some guidance (i.e., 00Z MPAS and recent HRRR runs) indicates lower storm coverage until later this evening across the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley portion of the Slight Risk. Regardless, deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and organized clusters and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will potentially result in severe gusts before this activity diminishes by mid-late evening. ...New England... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Rockies... A mid- to upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will gradually move northeast impinging on the northern Rockies by afternoon. The favorable timing of large-scale ascent and diurnal destabilization will yield scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing from the Upper Snake Valley north-northwestward into north-central ID and western MT by early evening. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and potentially favorable for localized severe gusts with the stronger thunderstorm cores and outflow-dominant clusters. ..Smith.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a series of embedded disturbances rotating through a larger-scale trough centered over the northern Great Plains. A notable shortwave trough is located near the WY/NE/SD vicinity and this feature will move east reaching the Upper Great Lakes by Friday morning. A lead convectively augmented disturbance is moving east across the mid MS Valley this morning, and it will move east into the southern Great Lakes and weaken during the day. Broken bands of showers/thunderstorms associated with this lead impulse will progress east this morning and move into a less unstable airmass across the Wabash Valley. Some rejuvenation of storms is possible later today on the southern portion of the trailing outflow near the MS-OH River confluence westward into the Ozarks. Appreciable uncertainty exists at this time on the intensity/coverage of storms in the aforementioned corridor. Nonetheless, heating of a moist airmass will potentially yield an environment favorable for at least isolated to widely scattered storms capable of a wind/hail threat. In wake of the early day cloud debris and overnight storm activity, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will probably develop by mid-late afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southern IA. Thunderstorms may focus along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Some guidance (i.e., 00Z MPAS and recent HRRR runs) indicates lower storm coverage until later this evening across the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley portion of the Slight Risk. Regardless, deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and organized clusters and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will potentially result in severe gusts before this activity diminishes by mid-late evening. ...New England... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Rockies... A mid- to upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will gradually move northeast impinging on the northern Rockies by afternoon. The favorable timing of large-scale ascent and diurnal destabilization will yield scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing from the Upper Snake Valley north-northwestward into north-central ID and western MT by early evening. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and potentially favorable for localized severe gusts with the stronger thunderstorm cores and outflow-dominant clusters. ..Smith.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a series of embedded disturbances rotating through a larger-scale trough centered over the northern Great Plains. A notable shortwave trough is located near the WY/NE/SD vicinity and this feature will move east reaching the Upper Great Lakes by Friday morning. A lead convectively augmented disturbance is moving east across the mid MS Valley this morning, and it will move east into the southern Great Lakes and weaken during the day. Broken bands of showers/thunderstorms associated with this lead impulse will progress east this morning and move into a less unstable airmass across the Wabash Valley. Some rejuvenation of storms is possible later today on the southern portion of the trailing outflow near the MS-OH River confluence westward into the Ozarks. Appreciable uncertainty exists at this time on the intensity/coverage of storms in the aforementioned corridor. Nonetheless, heating of a moist airmass will potentially yield an environment favorable for at least isolated to widely scattered storms capable of a wind/hail threat. In wake of the early day cloud debris and overnight storm activity, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will probably develop by mid-late afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southern IA. Thunderstorms may focus along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Some guidance (i.e., 00Z MPAS and recent HRRR runs) indicates lower storm coverage until later this evening across the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley portion of the Slight Risk. Regardless, deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and organized clusters and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will potentially result in severe gusts before this activity diminishes by mid-late evening. ...New England... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Rockies... A mid- to upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will gradually move northeast impinging on the northern Rockies by afternoon. The favorable timing of large-scale ascent and diurnal destabilization will yield scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing from the Upper Snake Valley north-northwestward into north-central ID and western MT by early evening. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and potentially favorable for localized severe gusts with the stronger thunderstorm cores and outflow-dominant clusters. ..Smith.. 08/15/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about a thousand
miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form this weekend or early next week while moving
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Information on this system can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure will likely form during the next couple of
days well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next
week while moving toward the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Berg

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... As an upper trough moves slowly eastward over the eastern CONUS, an isolated severe threat may continue on Day 4/Sunday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. However, the potential stabilizing effects of prior convection, along with generally modest deep-layer shear, render low confidence in a more organized severe/damaging wind threat on Sunday. Lower severe potential is anticipated across the eastern states on Day 5/Monday as the upper trough progresses eastward and the cold front moves mostly offshore. Upper ridging will likely remain prominent across much of the Rockies and Plains through at least early next week, while an upper trough/low generally remains centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Some chance for severe thunderstorms may exist over interior portions of the Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies/Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest next week. But, predictability of various mid-level perturbations that may encourage robust thunderstorms remains low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... As an upper trough moves slowly eastward over the eastern CONUS, an isolated severe threat may continue on Day 4/Sunday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. However, the potential stabilizing effects of prior convection, along with generally modest deep-layer shear, render low confidence in a more organized severe/damaging wind threat on Sunday. Lower severe potential is anticipated across the eastern states on Day 5/Monday as the upper trough progresses eastward and the cold front moves mostly offshore. Upper ridging will likely remain prominent across much of the Rockies and Plains through at least early next week, while an upper trough/low generally remains centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Some chance for severe thunderstorms may exist over interior portions of the Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies/Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest next week. But, predictability of various mid-level perturbations that may encourage robust thunderstorms remains low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... As an upper trough moves slowly eastward over the eastern CONUS, an isolated severe threat may continue on Day 4/Sunday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. However, the potential stabilizing effects of prior convection, along with generally modest deep-layer shear, render low confidence in a more organized severe/damaging wind threat on Sunday. Lower severe potential is anticipated across the eastern states on Day 5/Monday as the upper trough progresses eastward and the cold front moves mostly offshore. Upper ridging will likely remain prominent across much of the Rockies and Plains through at least early next week, while an upper trough/low generally remains centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Some chance for severe thunderstorms may exist over interior portions of the Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies/Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest next week. But, predictability of various mid-level perturbations that may encourage robust thunderstorms remains low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... As an upper trough moves slowly eastward over the eastern CONUS, an isolated severe threat may continue on Day 4/Sunday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. However, the potential stabilizing effects of prior convection, along with generally modest deep-layer shear, render low confidence in a more organized severe/damaging wind threat on Sunday. Lower severe potential is anticipated across the eastern states on Day 5/Monday as the upper trough progresses eastward and the cold front moves mostly offshore. Upper ridging will likely remain prominent across much of the Rockies and Plains through at least early next week, while an upper trough/low generally remains centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Some chance for severe thunderstorms may exist over interior portions of the Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies/Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest next week. But, predictability of various mid-level perturbations that may encourage robust thunderstorms remains low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... As an upper trough moves slowly eastward over the eastern CONUS, an isolated severe threat may continue on Day 4/Sunday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. However, the potential stabilizing effects of prior convection, along with generally modest deep-layer shear, render low confidence in a more organized severe/damaging wind threat on Sunday. Lower severe potential is anticipated across the eastern states on Day 5/Monday as the upper trough progresses eastward and the cold front moves mostly offshore. Upper ridging will likely remain prominent across much of the Rockies and Plains through at least early next week, while an upper trough/low generally remains centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Some chance for severe thunderstorms may exist over interior portions of the Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies/Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest next week. But, predictability of various mid-level perturbations that may encourage robust thunderstorms remains low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... As an upper trough moves slowly eastward over the eastern CONUS, an isolated severe threat may continue on Day 4/Sunday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. However, the potential stabilizing effects of prior convection, along with generally modest deep-layer shear, render low confidence in a more organized severe/damaging wind threat on Sunday. Lower severe potential is anticipated across the eastern states on Day 5/Monday as the upper trough progresses eastward and the cold front moves mostly offshore. Upper ridging will likely remain prominent across much of the Rockies and Plains through at least early next week, while an upper trough/low generally remains centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Some chance for severe thunderstorms may exist over interior portions of the Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies/Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest next week. But, predictability of various mid-level perturbations that may encourage robust thunderstorms remains low at this extended time frame. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast... A slow-moving upper trough/low should continue eastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley vicinity on Saturday. A weak surface low initially over Lower MI is forecast to gradually develop into southern Ontario through the period. A weak front extending southward from this low should make gradual east-southeastward progress across much of the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through Saturday evening. This boundary, although ill-defined and having only modest low-level convergence, should still serve as a focus for strong to severe convection across parts of these regions. Diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/ahead of the front should foster weak to moderate destabilization by Saturday afternoon, even though mid-level lapse rates should remain modest. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the upper trough/low should focus over parts of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Mid-South. But, sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization should be present over much of the broad warm sector. Multiple clusters may develop along the length of the front Saturday afternoon and pose primarily an isolated strong to damaging wind threat as they spread east-southeastward through Saturday evening. Similar to Day 2/Friday, confidence in a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential remains too low to include greater wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast... A slow-moving upper trough/low should continue eastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley vicinity on Saturday. A weak surface low initially over Lower MI is forecast to gradually develop into southern Ontario through the period. A weak front extending southward from this low should make gradual east-southeastward progress across much of the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through Saturday evening. This boundary, although ill-defined and having only modest low-level convergence, should still serve as a focus for strong to severe convection across parts of these regions. Diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/ahead of the front should foster weak to moderate destabilization by Saturday afternoon, even though mid-level lapse rates should remain modest. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the upper trough/low should focus over parts of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Mid-South. But, sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization should be present over much of the broad warm sector. Multiple clusters may develop along the length of the front Saturday afternoon and pose primarily an isolated strong to damaging wind threat as they spread east-southeastward through Saturday evening. Similar to Day 2/Friday, confidence in a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential remains too low to include greater wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast... A slow-moving upper trough/low should continue eastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley vicinity on Saturday. A weak surface low initially over Lower MI is forecast to gradually develop into southern Ontario through the period. A weak front extending southward from this low should make gradual east-southeastward progress across much of the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through Saturday evening. This boundary, although ill-defined and having only modest low-level convergence, should still serve as a focus for strong to severe convection across parts of these regions. Diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/ahead of the front should foster weak to moderate destabilization by Saturday afternoon, even though mid-level lapse rates should remain modest. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the upper trough/low should focus over parts of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Mid-South. But, sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization should be present over much of the broad warm sector. Multiple clusters may develop along the length of the front Saturday afternoon and pose primarily an isolated strong to damaging wind threat as they spread east-southeastward through Saturday evening. Similar to Day 2/Friday, confidence in a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential remains too low to include greater wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast... A slow-moving upper trough/low should continue eastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley vicinity on Saturday. A weak surface low initially over Lower MI is forecast to gradually develop into southern Ontario through the period. A weak front extending southward from this low should make gradual east-southeastward progress across much of the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through Saturday evening. This boundary, although ill-defined and having only modest low-level convergence, should still serve as a focus for strong to severe convection across parts of these regions. Diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/ahead of the front should foster weak to moderate destabilization by Saturday afternoon, even though mid-level lapse rates should remain modest. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the upper trough/low should focus over parts of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Mid-South. But, sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization should be present over much of the broad warm sector. Multiple clusters may develop along the length of the front Saturday afternoon and pose primarily an isolated strong to damaging wind threat as they spread east-southeastward through Saturday evening. Similar to Day 2/Friday, confidence in a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential remains too low to include greater wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Southeast... A slow-moving upper trough/low should continue eastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley vicinity on Saturday. A weak surface low initially over Lower MI is forecast to gradually develop into southern Ontario through the period. A weak front extending southward from this low should make gradual east-southeastward progress across much of the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through Saturday evening. This boundary, although ill-defined and having only modest low-level convergence, should still serve as a focus for strong to severe convection across parts of these regions. Diurnal heating of a moist airmass along/ahead of the front should foster weak to moderate destabilization by Saturday afternoon, even though mid-level lapse rates should remain modest. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the upper trough/low should focus over parts of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Mid-South. But, sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization should be present over much of the broad warm sector. Multiple clusters may develop along the length of the front Saturday afternoon and pose primarily an isolated strong to damaging wind threat as they spread east-southeastward through Saturday evening. Similar to Day 2/Friday, confidence in a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential remains too low to include greater wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more