Aggregator

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090500
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Beryl, located inland over southwestern Arkansas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059-061-069- 079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-117-119-125-127-133-145-147-149- 090440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEVIER WHITE WOODRUFF YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059-061-069- 079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-117-119-125-127-133-145-147-149- 090440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEVIER WHITE WOODRUFF YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059-061-069- 079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-117-119-125-127-133-145-147-149- 090440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEVIER WHITE WOODRUFF YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059-061-069- 079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-117-119-125-127-133-145-147-149- 090440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEVIER WHITE WOODRUFF YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 515 TORNADO AR 082055Z - 090500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Arkansas * Effective this Monday afternoon from 355 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A moist air mass and the remnants of Beryl and its peripheral strong wind field will overspread the ArkLaTex and broader Arkansas through tonight, with an increasing tornado potential into this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south of Hot Springs AR to 35 miles north northwest of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 514... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14040. ...Guyer Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2024 02:44:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Jul 2024 03:21:24 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090235 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Beryl Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Beryl continues to move farther inland, and the center is now near the border of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Although the wind and storm surge hazards have largely subsided, there continues to be a significant threat of heavy rainfall and tornadoes along the forecast track for the next day or so. Visit weather.gov for details on these hazards. Beryl is expected to move swiftly northeastward while weakening, and it is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on Beryl. Future information on this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 400 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php Key Messages: 1. Local flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of northeast Texas, far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri through Tuesday. Minor to moderate river flooding is also possible. 2. Use caution after Beryl passes. Deadly hazards remain including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 32.8N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/1200Z 34.9N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0000Z 38.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 10/1200Z 40.9N 85.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/0000Z 43.0N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 11/1200Z 44.8N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/0000Z 46.5N 75.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 090234 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Beryl Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...FLOODING RAINS AND THE RISK OF TORNADOES CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 94.3W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF TYLER TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beryl was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 94.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a remnant low on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Texas coast, but should continue to recede overnight. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. The tornado risk will spread into southeast Missouri, northern Tennessee, Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri through Tuesday. Local flash and urban flooding is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to gradually decrease during the next day or so. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...FLOODING RAINS AND THE RISK OF TORNADOES CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 32.8, -94.3 with movement NNE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090234 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 94.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 94.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 94.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 34.9N 92.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 38.1N 89.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.9N 85.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.0N 82.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.8N 79.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 46.5N 75.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 94.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON BERYL. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT2, WMO HEADER WTNT22 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP . $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

MD 1561 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 514...515... FOR TS BERYL
Mesoscale Discussion 1561 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...TS Beryl Concerning...Tornado Watch 514...515... Valid 082329Z - 090130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 514, 515 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat will be most concentrated from northern Louisiana into central Arkansas this evening. DISCUSSION...Center of TS Beryl is lifting northeast across northeast TX early this evening. Latest radar data suggests the remnant circulation is just south of Longview. As such, strongest low-level shear is now focusing across the ArkLaTex, especially into southern AR where values continue to increase. Latest VWP data from SHV depicts weakening 0-3km SRH values, while 0-3km values are showing a marked increase as far northeast as LZK (300 m2/s2). While a few supercells linger at lower latitudes over central LA, the strongest longer-lived supercells are now concentrated from northwest LA into southwest AR. Over the next several hours the primary corridor of concern will orient itself from north of SHV toward LIT. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33209421 34399308 33689188 32759337 33209421 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more